bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis and Preliminary Ownership News for March 16th
Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. I will go over tonight’s slate as someone that plays on Draftkings. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! Let’s get started!
***The Daily Slates:***
***Quick Showdown Notes***
**Hawks vs Celtics**
* O/U - 231.5, BOS -10.5
* Pace Rankings: ATL 13th, BOS 15th
* Injury News: Rozier QUESTIONABLE, Theis QUESTIONABLE
* ATL Defense: 236.9 DKPPG (8th, +5 from pace), 2nd Worst in the NBA against SG. Also weak against SF
* BOS Defense: 224.5 DKPPG (22nd, -7 from pace), Weaker than average against SF and PF
* Players in top 50 in usage: Trae (12th), Kyrie (32nd)
* Players in the top 10 in DRPM: Smart (1st - PG), Kyrie (10th - PG), Bazemore (3rd - SG)
* Players in the bottom 5 in DRPM: Trae (WORST OVERALL), Prince (3rd Worst SF), Collins (2nd Worst PF)
***Main Slate***
Since I couldn’t write analysis last night due to the pain I was having, I will skip my analysis. Needless to say, I followed through on the strategy I discussed in my good chalk/bad chalk, where I played 20 lineups so I can get 100% Harden and go over the field. Well it worked and I made about 150 bucks. Not bad. Could have been better if I avoided Marvin Williams. Ah well! Onto a fun Saturday night 7 gamer.
***Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):***
***Grizzlies*** - A matchup against the Wizards is one of the best matchups a team could hope for. And, lucky for us, the best defender, Satoransky, is questionable. As much as I would love **Conley (7900)** anyway in this awesome pace up spot against a terrible D, I would really, really love him if Sato missed. I also want to attack the Wizards at D, so, given the choices, I would rather save 1300 and go with **Noah (5200)**. Last, you should play either **Delon (5000)** or **Bradley (5000)** cause one of them will get you 40 DKP tonight.
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***Suns vs Pelicans*** - I want, literally, everyone from this game. I am not exaggerating. I’d even take **Brow (7100)** at that price for 20 min against the Suns. I want **Randle (8100)**, who is in an even better spot than last night. I want **Booker (8000)** who gets to go against the Pels without Jrue. I want **Elf (6900)**, going for his FOURTH straight 3x2.and his fourth game of 50+DKP. He is drastically underpriced here. The Pels are worst against Centers, so you can take **Ayton (6300)** if you want, though he is always a GPP only play. Then, after **Oubre (6100)**, who gets a matchup vs the 2nd worst SF defense in the NBA, you can raid the cheap plays for a ton of awesome value - **Bridges (3800)**, **Jackson (3800)**, **Holmes (3600)**, **Miller (3400)**, and **Clark (3300)** are all perfectly legit plays here.
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***Cavs vs Mavs*** - The Cavs are incredibly bad against guards, so I am going to be a huge fan of **Doncic (8700)** today, after showing himself perfectly healthy again yesterday. He should be 10k every day, especially in this matchup. Although **Brunson (5900)** is getting uncomfortably expensive, he is still lined up against Sexton, and could get you 40 DKP here today, even with Doncic going of. The Mavs are really bad against PG and C, so I would be a big, big fan of starting with **Kevin Love (7800)**, who should be able to destroy Powell in his 30-32 minutes. I would also love taking a chance on either **Sexton (5500)** or **Clarkson (5300)**, who would both get a ton of minutes and usage in a great spot today. :ast thing to mention - Tristan AND Nance AND Delly are QUESTIONABLE, so be aware that, as of now I don’t really want anyone else on this Cavs team but, if they would all miss, **Cedi (5600)** would be a serviceable option, and I would also really love **Kleber (4400)** in that spot too.
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***Warriors vs Thunder*** - Another game with a ton of choices, especially with Durant DOUBTFUL. This is going to be a high scoring game between 2 teams in the top 10 in pace, and the top 10 in DKPPG allowed. On the Thunder side, **Russ (10800)** and **PG13 (9700)** are both underpriced, could both exceed value together, and could be played together in a stack if you wanted. The usage is going to flow through those 2 the entirety of this game, and focusing on anyone else may help you get a serviceable score, but probably won’t win you anything. Although, if anyone else has one of those games, it would be *Schroder (5500)**. On the GS side, without Durant, the first person we have to lock in is **Klay (7400)**. I have been telling you all for a few weeks now, lock in any and every SG you can against OKC. If you have been listening, you have made a lot of money. Continue doing that today. **Curry (9200)** and **Cousins (7600)** are also drastically underpriced for Durant being out, in a pace up matchup against a team playing poor D lately. I don’t really trust **Dray (5800)** or **Iggy (4300)**, but both would be OK in this matchup. There’s certainly tons of worse people than them. I just don’t love them here.
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***Jokic and Co*** - So, I will start this off by saying that Myles Turner is one of the most underrated defenders at C in the NBA right now. He makes it very hard for opposing Cs, and, even though he is unguardable, I do think it slightly hurts the scoring ceiling for **Jokic (9600)**. However, Jokic has shown that, first, he should be priced near 11k every game, so this price is ludicrous. Second, if Jokic is in a tough scoring situation, he can just get you a 3x2 easier, since he uses that opportunity to pass the ball off to other people. In that respect, I also want to say I love going with Jokic AND either **Millsap (6700)** or **Harris (4000)**, who would be tasked with a bunch of extra shooting from Jokic’s passes. Murray is lined up against IND’s best-in-the-NBA D against PG, so I’ll pass there and attack IND where you can, even though Murray has been cold as ice lately, even at that crazy low price.
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***Pacers???*** - I have been debating what section to post this in, because I really don’t like anything here. Everyone is priced fine, and there’s very little in terms of “spots primed to go off”. But I do want to point out that, first, **Bojan (6200)** is in the best spot on the Pacers. He will attack Barton all day, and be asked to shoot a bunch of times. If anyone on this team could get us 50 DKP today, it’s Bojan. If you want to take a chance on **Collison (6200)**, I don’t think it’s crazy. He could get you a 2x2 today, and 40 DKP. I just don’t see him having the upside you would want in a GPP to help you win.
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***Gobert*** - Center against the Nets? Check. Fire up **Gobert (8000)** today. I have no problem trusting him to get us 50 points, especially against this Nets squad that is one of the worst in the NBA against Cs, and has been all season. This is a huge pace up spot against a bad D, and Gobert is just objectively underpriced. If you want to pivot down to **Favors (5600)**, I get it, since the reason the Nets are bad against C is the same reason they are bad against PF. Also, and last of all, **Rubio (4900)**. LOOK AT RUBIO’S PRICE. Even if he only gets 22-25 minutes, he could pay this off without too much of a problem.
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***Jarrett Allen*** - I will keep pounding Centers against the Jazz as long as I can. While I can never trust Allen will get enough minutes, the Nets are trying to hold on to their playoff hopes, and I imagine that means Allen getting 30 minutes again. At that price, I don’t know how you don’t lock **Allen (4900)** in, when he can easily get you 30-40 DKP today. If you are wary of Allen, take a chance on the punt classic **Ed Davis (3400)**, who could also easily get 20-25 DKP here. I would also take **Dinwiddie (6100)** here, not because I love his spot, but because his price is far too low for the 50 DKP upside he has been showing us lately. If this game stays close, he will probably have something major to do with it.
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***Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):***
***Blazers vs Spurs*** - This is another one of those games that come along that have a bunch of plays that I think are OK, but nothing that I think is anywhere close to great. Lillard gets the D of White, who is overpriced. CJ is decent, but too scoring dependent on a team not giving up a ton of DKPPG. LMA will see the tough D of either Nurkic or Aminu. Nurkic and Kanter are splitting too much time. I guess, if I go anywhere, I would start with **DeRozan (8200)** who should be lined up against CJ or Hood (if Harkless is out). That is a good matchup without question. I would take **Poeltl (4400)**, who isn’t in a great spot but is at a great price, and could pay it off, especially with him being needed more against the big Blazers. I would also take a run on **Hood (3300)** if Harkless misses again. Even if just gets you another 20 DKP, that’s fine enough for that price.
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***Situations to monitor:***
****Satoransky QUESTIONABLE*** - I originally just wanted to promote **Bryant (4100)** from this game, since I think he gets a significant amount of run and, against a Grizzlies team that can’t defend C anymore, he should crush it. Last night, against the Hornets, both Centers dramatically underperformed, but this is a better individual matchup (though a much slower one). But, if Sato misses, you have to lock in **Beal (9300)** and **Troy Brown (3100)**. Don’t fall for the Chaisson Randle trap.
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***Current Lines:***
* MEM/WAS - 224, WAS -2.5
* PHX/NO - 232.5, NO -1
* GS/OKC - N/A
* POR/SA - 224, SA -2
* CLE/DAL - 215.5, DAL -6.5
* IND/DEN - 213.5, DEN -7
* BK/UTA - 221, UTA -8.5
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***Chalky Plays***
1. Doncic - 39.2%
2. PG13 - 35.3%
3. Jokic - 32.8%
4. Dray - 31.1%
5. Cousins - 29.7%
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***Underowned Plays***
1. Westbrook - 9.7%
2. Love - 5.7%
3. Millsap - 4.8%
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***Low Price Punts Projected to Reach Value***
1. Josh Jackson - 22.5DKP
2. DFS - 21.2 DKP
3. Mikal Bridges - 22.2DKP
4. Belinelli - 19.6DKP
5. Monte Morris - 23DKP
6. Darius Miller - 19DKP
7. Gary Harris - 22.2DKP
8. Patty Mills - 17.1DKP
9. Rodney Hood - 17.6DKP
10. Ed Davis - 18.1DKP
11. CJ MIles - 18.9DKP
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Alright, that’s it for now. Best of luck today everyone!!