Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!
Yesterday In Review:
***My Lineup-*** -
Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff
Randle | 3300 | 7.25 | 2.2x | 18%| 43%| 25!!!
Clarkson | 5200 | 26 | 5x | 15.6%| 24.4%| 8.8
PG13 | 10300 | 88.5 | 8.6x | 10.5%| 25.9%| 15.4!!!!
Chriss | 3000 | 26.75 | 8.9x | 16%| 26.4%| 10.4!!
Ed Davis | 3600 | 14.5 | 4x | 1.8%| 0.8%| 1
Doncic | 8700 | 45.5 | 5.2x | 18.5%| 13.4%| 5.1
Nance | 5900 | 44.5 | 7.5x | 47%| 55.9%| 8.9
KAT | 10000 | 42.5 | 4.3x | 44.7%| 36.8%| 7.9
**Total** | 50000 | 295.5 | 5.91x| | |
***Best Possible Lineup-*** - [Using the free lineup rewind tool on fantasycruncher](https://www.fantasycruncher.com/lineup-rewind/draftkings/NBA/), I find the highest possible lineup that could have been played.
Name | Price | DKP
Kadeem Allen | 3700 | 39.75
D’Angelo | 7800 | 60.25
Ariza | 5600 | 45.75
Saric | 4400 | 37.5
Nance | 5900 | 44.5
Teague | 5500 | 42.5
PG13 | 10300 | 88.5
LouWill | 6800 | 52.25
**Total** | 50000 | 411
Analysis-
Hey, you. I love you. I don’t care who you are. You are my brother or my sister. You are valued. You are loved. You mean something. You are special.
Billions and Billions and Billions of years ago, the universe was born in the biggest explosion possible in our universe. Immediately after, the universe as we know it was a soup of matter and energy, too hot for anything to exist as anything but a plasma. Twenty minutes later, it was so cold the universe was filled with a LOT of hydrogen, a bunch of helium (97% of all helium that will ever exist was created here), and a very small bit of Lithium and Beryllium. Over the next hundreds of millions of years, the elements formed clouds and the gravity within those clouds pushed that Hydrogen together to form the first stars.
Stars make elements. Everything we see, everything we know, everything we are was created inside a star. The early stars turned Hydrogen into Helium. After they ran out of Hydrogen, the stars started burning the Helium, turning it into Carbon and Oxygen before the weight forced the stars to explode, sending those elements out into the universe. Every once in awhile, though, a much, much more massive star forms. Stars that make our Sun look like a grain of sand on the beach of this vast planet. The more massive the star, the more pressure that builds up inside. The more pressure built up inside, the hotter it becomes. It is in these, and only these, conditions in which heavier elements form. Every heavy element that you know- from Iron, to Gold, to Uranium, was formed in the explosions made by Supernovae. Those elements, after billions of years, joined heavier clouds and formed everything from our Sun to the Planets to the asteroids that litter our solar system. Every piece of jewelry you wear, every car you drive, everything that you know and that you are was born billions of years ago in the explosions of the most massive things to ever exist in our universe.
After our planet cooled down, it was continually bombarded by space rocks. Space rocks that were also formed from the same supernovae that formed our planet. A team found one of these asteroids and found that they contained early bits of amino acids. Amino acids that are the building blocks of all life on this planet. Amino acids that, when making contact with the water that littered our planet, eventually formed proteins, which formed single celled organisms and, eventually, the rest of life as we know it.
They say there have been Five mass extinction events on earth. The first was about 450 million years ago and wiped out between 60-70% of all species on the planet. The second was about 375 million years ago. This one lasted about 20 million years and killed off more than 70% of the species on Earth, again. The third one was 252 million years ago. This one is the largest extinction in Earth history, wiping out between 90-96% of all species. They call it “The Great Dying”. The fourth event occurred 201.3 million years ago and wiped out 70-75% of all species. This left the dinosaurs as the dominant species on this planet. This lasted until 66 million years ago when the final extinction event came and killed 75% of the species on the planet, again, include every dinosaur that couldn’t fly.
Mammals took over after that. And, throughout the next tens of millions of years, humans came to be. And generation after generation kept making babies. Mother after mother after mother continuing a line that started before we understood what life even was. For thousands and thousands of years, every mother that had every baby did so so that you could exist.
You are amazing. You are special. None of us should even exist at all. If our cloud didn’t have the right amount of heavy elements. If our planet didn’t get seeded with life at the right time. If the Earth hadn’t settled in the Goldilocks zone around the sun (Just Right for life to evolve). If just one of those extinction events had killed just one species that led to humanity, we wouldn’t be here. If one mother had not had her babies, your family line would have stopped hundreds of years ago and you wouldn’t exist. If just one different sperm had fertilized an egg someone else would have existed somewhere along the line and everyone in your family would be a completely different person. Your entire family tree wouldn’t exist as you know it.
I know life is hard. But, the fact is, we are alive. That is the most insane, unlikely, unbelievable thing that we could ever imagine. The odds of that happening are so astronomical, it would be a farce to try and calculate. And yet here you are. And here I am. And, as tough as it gets, we at least get to experience something so wonderful and unlikely, and we really should do nothing else but cram every last bit of life into every last second we have.
Hey, you. You are special. You exist in spite of all the odds. And I love you.
My son came home early today cause of snow, so I wound up having to do nap time. I would normally wake up with him around 4pm. Instead we woke up at 615. So my lineup became a mad dash, trying to figure out what to do with Wiggins out and a bunch of other breaking news. So I locked in KAT and PG13 cause those were my favorites. This was compounded when Wiggins and Schroder were listed as out. PG13 did great. KAT got into foul trouble all game and it ruined his night. I locked in Nance, Clarkson, and Chriss cause I loved the matchup against the Knicks, and they were all underpriced. This left me three spots. I wanted to get Doncic in there for this matchup, so I took the risk on Randle (instead of Knight who I liked, and should have played), and Ed Davis who I still really liked in that matchup.
The Daily Slate:
Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day
Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here
The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down.
In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors.
LeBron - Let’s be honest. There are only a couple of people with a chance at MSC play today. And all of them are underpriced. But, given all of the other factors, I will lean towards LeBron (10500) here. First, when it comes to ceiling, the only person who can touch LeBron on this slate is Brow (one of the other possibilities I had for MSC). So we are looking at someone who should be priced over 11k, considering his ceiling, that is priced at 10500 because he just came back from an injury and hasn’t gotten into a full swing yet. People will look at his 3 games back and see DKPs of 40.25, 72.5, and 44.5 and may think they want to stay away, but those 3 games were against the Pacers, Celtics, and Sixers. Those are all great Ds. Now LeBron gets to take on the Hawks, the one of the worst defenses in basketball, overall. They are the absolute worst in the NBA against SF, though, which is where LeBron plays. This game also has the highest total on the slate, at 236, with a great spread of LAL -5, meaning this is going to be a very fast, very close game. If they are only going to play Rondo 16 minutes again, LeBron will almost be a lock for a 3x2, which pushes him over the edge in my opinion. Given the matchup against the Hawks, honestly, feel free to go for anyone here. Kuzma (6000) and McGee (4800) are also in smash spots. Ingram (5500) and Bullock (3400) are a little more risky, considering I don’t know how many minutes Rondo (5900) and Stephenson (3900) and KCP (3900) will get, but they will all be helped by the fact that Hart is out until after the break. If Rondo starts, I may have to take the chance and start him.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Hawks getting rid of Lin - If you read up about LeBron you know this is going to be the best game of the night for fantasy production. I would want to be all over both sides if I could. If you didn’t notice, the Hawks let Jeremy Lin go so that he could go sign with the Raptors (instead of just trading him at the deadline for, you know, something). Jaylen Adams (3000), the only other PG they have on the roster, is questionable and has missed the last couple of games with an ankle injury. Even if he’s healthy, he’s played one game more than 5 minutes this season. I expect this means that Trae Young (6700) will get an insane amount of court time tonight and should easily pay off that salary against this Lakers team that is weak against PG with Lonzo out. I would guess Bazemore (4000) gets the backup PG minutes and, if he gets more minutes than he has been, he could be a sneaky play. The Lakers are worst in the NBA against SG, so, with Baze having to play backup PG, Huerter (4800) is in the best spot he could be, and is looking at more minutes than the 30+ he’s already been getting. I also expect this means Prince (4500) is closer to 35 than 25 minutes, making him another great play at that price. Especially if they need him on LeBron. I would love to love Collins (7600) here, but he only played 25 minutes last game and I am worried they are trying to monitor his minutes while he nurses that knee injury. He is in a fantastic spot against Kuzma, though, so if you think he gets 35 minutes, I would definitely give him strong consideration. If you think Collins will be limited, though, you absolutely HAVE TO play Spellman (3400) at that price. Similarly, as much as I would love to play Dedmon (4600), his minutes have been spotty lately. I absolutely love his matchup against McGee, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets you 35 DKP here. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he gets you 15 DKP and Alex Len (3500) winds up getting 27 minutes and 40 DKP. All of these guys are good GPP risks to take, but I wouldn’t trust any of them right now.
Kyrie Irving is OUT - There are a couple good spots here, but a couple I can’t find myself going near. If Rozier (6900)was 3900 in this matchup, I would feel pretty strongly about playing him. I wouldn’t call him a lock, even, but I would certainly recommend him. The fact he is 3000 more expensive than that just blows my mind. I know this is a pace up spot. But I also know he will be guarded by Ben Simmons who has NINE INCHES on him. The Sixers starting 5 are pretty insane, actually. Simmons (7800) is 6’10”, Redick (5300) is 6’4”, Butler (6800) and Tobias (6600) are 6’8” and Embiid (10200) is 7’. The Celtics, on the other hand, will be starting Rozier, who, as I alluded to, is 6’1”, Smart (4900), who is 6’4”, Tatum (6100), who is 6’8”, Morris (5000), who is 6’9”, and Horford (6300), who is 6’10”. So, obviously, Horford and Embiid will be on each other here. As touch a matchup as it is for both, Embiid is still the big fish for this Sixers team, and Horford has to carry more of the load with Kyrie out, so I really like both. Horford could be priced in the 7000 range and it would still be a fair price for today, so I will be totally fine paying that price for more than 30 minutes of more than 1 PPM. This is where it gets tricky. To put it simply, the Celtics have 2 more tall people left to guard 3 tall people. I would guess it stays with Morris and Harris together, and Butler and Tatum on each other. This means I would really like both Morris and Harris in this matchup, and be a little more muted on both Butler and Tatum. I do love Tatum when Kyrie is out, but Butler is a tough defender and could hurt his production. So now you have Simmons, who has to be guarded by either Rozier or Smart, both of whom he dwarves. He would be a spectacular play in that matchup, and most people won’t play him cause it’s someone playing the Celtics, without realizing he is not a Kemba type PG. He is a freak. And Kyrie being out may help him more than anyone. This means that Smart and Redick should wind up on each other. This is a bad matchup for Redick, and a fantastic matchup for Smart. So if you want to go there, I would recommend it. As far as bench players go, I always love Jaylen Brown (5100) who gets extra run with Kyrie out as well. He should be a safe bet here. Theis (4000) could have a huge roll here if Horford and/or Morris get into foul trouble. He has shown he can produce really well if given the minutes, and Philly is an offensive force. Boban (3300) will sub into the game after 5 minutes, given the normal Philly rotation. He is 7’3”. He will be 5 inches taller than anyone else on the court. I would be shocked if he doesn’t get himself 20 DKP tonight, with 5+ rebounds and a couple putbacks. I will keep being on him because I know his upside. He is going to hit. Soon. And win someone that listens to me a ton of cash.
Mike Conley and Co. - While I normally run as far away from a Grizzlies game as I can, there are just a couple spots here that we have to love. First, with all of the trades and everyone else on the team gone, Conley (7900) is the only real threat. He was 8400 two games ago and he only got 28 minutes due to a blow out. Last game, he was down to 8200 and they played a surprisingly low scoring and slow game against the Pels, in which he was matched up with Jrue. He only shot 3-11, including 0-6 from 3, but still managed 31.5 DKP on 11 points, 9 assists and 6 rebounds, all of which are close enough to 10 I consider him a 3x2 threat for this game. The Spurs are really bad against PGs if White is out, so this is another big bonus for Conley. Before those last 2 games, Conley had 2 games over 50DKP and then 4 games of 40 DKP. Although this game has the lowest total on the slate, at 209, it also has the closest spread with the Spurs 4 point road favorites. If this game stays as close as it is supposed to, Conley will get 35 minutes and could get you more than 50 DKP again. Also, the benefit of being the slowest team in the NBA is that every matchup is a pace up matchup. Everyone else I am too scared of. Noah (4000) shouldn’t have even played last game and he wound up getting more minutes than either Rabb (5600) or *JJJ (6200) and putting up more than 40 DKP. While JoVal (4200) hasn’t been cleared yet, if he is available for this game, things would get even trickier. The Grizzlies have said JoVal won’t play on back-to-backs, though, so they will either hold him out tonight or tomorrow. The coach said that, from this point on, Rabb is going to be the starter. He is matched up against LMA who is at the bottom of DRPM rankings. He is cheap enough I wouldn’t mind taking a chance on him, just understand we don’t really know where these minutes are going to wind up until everything gets more established. The new players have ended the Bruno era, I fear, but a couple of them are interesting plays. CJ Miles (3000) is still minimum priced even though he played 21 minutes last game and put up 19 DKP. Wright (3500) and Bradley (3300) failed to produce in the time they were given, but they were given 23 and 25 minutes respectively. On a smaller slate like this, you have to consider anyone 3500 and under getting almost 25 minutes if they have a chance of producing, and both these guys have done that occasionally in their career.
LMA - People will, again, see the “Grizzlies” and stay away, not factoring in the fact that Gasol has been replaced by Rabb and they aren’t in the same universe when it comes to Defense. LMA (7700) has been taking this team on his back lately, and, given this matchup, I expect him to keep doing the same. I understand it’s a low total and a pace down spot, but the spread is close, and he should still see his full complement of minutes. In this matchup, that means over 40 DKP with a higher ceiling. I would gladly take that at low ownership. Also, with Bertans moving into the PF slot and Gay moving to SF, DeRozan (7300) will have another of this slate’s height mismatches, where he has 5 inches over Avery Bradley. Also, Bradley is near the bottom in DRPM, which is a double bonus for DeMar. I know his production has been spotty at best, so this recommendation doesn’t come without some risk. But if you are looking for someone in a much better matchup than the numbers indicate, and someone who can drop 50 DKP if his shot starts falling, look no further than DeMar.
Brow’s insane price - If you want to see someone underpriced, look no further than Brow (10300). He went from “not ever playing in back-to-backs” to getting 34 minutes and screwing thousands of DFS players over. This game will be better for him, though, cause Okafor (5500) is back, meaning Brow gets to slot over to PF. This is a much better matchup for him against Gordon than Vuc, and I expect him to go well above and beyond the 50 or so DKP he has gotten his last couple of games. Seriously, if Brow was 12000 here he would still be 15% owned. The fact that he is 10300 means his ownership is going to be out of this galaxy. While I love him, I still think Orlando is a slow, defensive team. And I still think LeBron has the 3x2 upside Brow doesn’t (I know he can do it with Blocks, but that’s not as common). If Brow is projected to be 60% owned I wouldn’t be shocked, and I might still go there in my single lineup. I also think Jrue (8500) is in a good spot, but he doesn’t have the same 3x2 he did before Brow got back, and his price hasn’t come back down to earth yet. This would especially be the case if Elf came back tonight. He is questionable, so it is certainly possible. I expect him to be limited, so I wouldn’t be on him at all, but it would work to lessen the impact Jrue has. Randle (7400) is always a decent GPP play. He should get 30 minutes here and he has shown he can get 50 DKP in that time. I don’t know if I trust that, but if you want to go there in GPPs, I am all for it. It seems that, regardless of what happens, the Pels have decided they are going to give Kenrich (4900) serious minutes no matter what. Even with Moore and Brow back, Williams played 37 minutes the last couple games and put up 33 and 40.75 DKP. I know it feels weird to play him, but if the minutes and production are there, you are doing yourself a disservice not to trust those over your gut telling you “are you fucking kidding me with this Kenrich dude??”
The Pels Defensive Weaknesses - If you look at the Defensive metrics here, over the last month the Pels are worst in the NBA against SF and 2nd worst against PF. They are also subpar against Cs. However, with AD coming back and manning (probably) the PF slot, I would expect that DvP ranking to skyrocket and quickly. They would still be really, really attackable at SF and C, though, meaning that I, once again, am in love with Isaac (5100), Ross (5400), and Vuc (9500). Gordon (6400) would match up against Brow, so no thank you. Isaac and Ross have been on fire lately and their prices haven’t caught up with that spike in production. They are both people who have putting up 30-40+DKP regularly and, in this matchup against the worst team in the NBA against their position, I expect that to continue. Everyone else I consider more risky plays, or people without the ceiling I want in tourneys. Fournier (5200) will match up with Jrue who is still a fantastic defender. I know he can easily pay off the 5200, but I also know he is going to be incredibly popular and he has as much chance of paying off as he does failing here. Augustin (4700) has shown you in his last 2 games he can get you 15 or 40 DKP. If you don’t mind taking the chance in a GPP, I wouldn’t mind putting him in your player pool, but I would go elsewhere with a single lineup. Briscoe (3200) got 23 minutes and shot the ball 8 times. Unfortunately only 1 went in, and his teammates’ shots didn't go in either and he finished with 4.5 DKP. Like I said earlier, though, if someone is this cheap, getting 20+ minutes and has shown you the ability to get you over 20 DKP, you have to consider them. So, with that in mind, I will also point out Khem Birch (3400)who is slightly more expensive than I would want, but, again, he is going to get 15-20 minutes no matter what and he has a shot of getting you 22.25 DKP like he did 2 games ago against a more difficult Bucks team.
Jazz Vs Monstars - I will start off by saying that I don’t know where to go here. First, I think any game where the Warriors are home has more chance to blow out then it doesn’t. I don’t care what Miami just did. I have watched enough games to know how good this team is, and how insane they play at home. If I am going to go anywhere here in regards to the stars, I am going to go to Durant (9100) who should be able to exploit his matchup against Ingles (5000). As I have pointed out in the past, as good a defender as Gobert is, the Jazz are one of the worst teams in the NBA against Centers. That means this is a rare game I might have to consider Cousins (6200). He is only playing 27 minutes a game, but that has made him incredibly aggressive and insulates him from blow outs. If they are going to be able to take advantage of any matchup, it is Cousins here, so, even with the 27 minutes, I think he could easily get you 45 DKP which would be fine enough in a tourney. I must warn you about the lowered upside from the guaranteed low minutes, though. I would also look at Dray (6000) who would get some of the C minutes Cousins doesn’t. He isn’t super aggressive in terms of shooting, making him less likely to take advantage of Gobert’s weakness, but he has shown you that he just accumulates enough stats in the minutes he gets he often falls into 6x. If he gets a couple extra shots due to matchup, that’s even better. If you are looking for a cheap play, and you think this game stays close, Looney (3800) would benefit from the same weakness Cousins would be exploiting. On the Jazz side, the Warriors have one spot I want to attack them through- Klay. On the year, Klay is the 5th worst SG in the NBA in terms of DRPM. Durant/Cousins are both 10 top, and Dray is 1st among PFs. Curry isn’t great, but he also isn’t terrible. That means if the Jazz are going to have success in this game, a good chunk of it should be coming from Donovan (8300). He hasn’t gotten you that 50-60 DKP upside he showed when Rubio was just coming back, but he has been both involved in a few blow outs, and had a couple bad shooting nights. While I can’t promise he has a good shooting night, I can say that, if he shoots the ball 22-24 times like he has been recently, against a terrible Klay defense, and he sinks more than 35% of them, he should easily crush his value today. Since Curry is the next weakest link (and, besides Klay, the only starter in this game not in the top 10 in DRPM for their position), and since he is drastically underpriced, I would also have a strong desire to play Rubio (5800). If he doesn’t pass 30 DKP I will be shocked, and we all know he can get us a 3x2 if it all goes well. It’s not a game I’m super excited about but, in a slate this small, we can’t be super picky. When the game has this high a total and a close spread, we have to get some pieces somewhere.
Situations to monitor:
Elf Injury Status
Jaylen Adams Status
JoVal Status
Spurs Lineup - Do they start Bertans at the 4 and LMA at the 5, or LMA at the 4 and Gasol at the 5?
Pels Lineup - Do they start Okafor at the 5 and Brow at the 4, or Brow at the 5 and Kenrich at the 4? I would assume, against the Magic, they go with the former but we will ahve to see.
Alright, everyone. Remember what Jeff Mangum said, “[I] Can’t believe how strange it is to be anything at all.” We are all lucky to be here. We should all be so happy about that and spend each day making the most of it. The universe existed for more than 13 billion years before you and I existed, and it will exist for billions more when we are gone. In that brief heartbeat we get, we better enjoy every second we can. Best of luck tonight, everyone! I am watching my son, so I won’t be able to do the good chalk/bad chalk (i don’t think…)