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bathrobeDFS Breakdown for February 13th!


Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!


Yesterday In Review:

***My Lineup-*** -

Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff

Wright | 3500 | 26 | 7.4x | 56.7%| 50.1%| 6.6

Bullock | 3400 | 29.75 | 8.75x | 37.3%| 24.3%| 13

LeBron | 10500 | 78.75 | 7.5x | 42%| 40.3%| 1.7

AD | 10300 | 16.5 | 1.6x | 13.1%| 18%| 4.9

Vuc | 9500 | 56.75 | 6x | 24%| 10.6%| 13.4

CJ Miles | 3000 | 18.5 | 6.2x | 0.5%| 2.1%| 1.6

Morris | 5000 | 30.5 | 6.1x | 12.3%| 18.2%| 5.9

McGee | 4800 | 10.5 | 2.2x | 33.8%| 51.2%| 17.4

**Total** | 50000 | 267.25 | 5.345x| | |


***Best Possible Lineup-*** - [Using the free lineup rewind tool on fantasycruncher](https://www.fantasycruncher.com/lineup-rewind/draftkings/NBA/), I find the highest possible lineup that could have been played.


Name | Price | DKP

Trae | 6700 | 54.5

Bradley | 3300 | 52

LeBron | 10500 | 78.75

Gay | 5700 | 46

JoVal | 4200 | 39.5

Iguodala | 3800 | 31.25

Horford | 6300 | 49.5

Vuc | 9500 | 56.75

**Total** | 50000 | 408.25


Analysis-

I loved Lebron, I thought AD starting at PF was too good to pass up, and I thought Vuc starting against Okafor was also too good to pass up. I wanted to get the punts of Wright, Bullock and CJ Miles in and this left me exactly enough to squeeze in McGee, who I also loved. AD sucked so much I can’t even begin to describe it. McGee got into foul trouble and never recovered. Everyone else crushed it. Oh well.


The Daily Slate:

Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day

Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here

The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down.

In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors.


Damian Lillard - In an 11 game slate, we don’t have to worry as much about ownership since everything will be so spread out, but I expect Dame to be REALLY underowned compared to the Warriors he’s going against. There were a few people I liked for this slot, D’Angelo Russell and KAT, specifically. But there are a few factors that push my preference today onto Dame (8600). First, Dame is someone who, when he is playing well, gets priced around 10k. That should show you by itself he has an impressive ceiling. While it’s rare (as all ceiling games are), Dame has the talent to get you 80 DKP if everything goes well for him. The first advantage I give to Dame is the fact this game has the highest projected total on the slate, at 235, with a wonderfully low spread of GS -4.5. Golden State plays at one of the fastest paces in the NBA while the Blazers have been around 20th all season. So another bonus is the great pace up matchup Dame will get. In terms of usage, no one on the Blazers even comes close to Dame. While CJ and Nurkic will go back and forth as the #2 option, and both will sneak into the top 50 in the NBA in usage, Dame is top 20 all season, and we can count on him to continue that. Another thing that pushes me to Dame is the defensive setup of the Warriors. First, Cousins will be out for rest purposes, meaning one of the better defenders the Warriors have will be off the court. While Looney is not awful, Dame will have a much easier time making shots, getting passes through, and attacking the rim now. Second, Durant and Dray are both very good defenders. Durant is 10th among starting SFs and Dray is 1st among starting PFs in DRPM. Dray is going to make it really tough for Nurkic, and Durant will make it hard for the Forwards here. Klay, though, is the 5th worst SG in terms of DRPM and Curry is mediocre. He is 44th out of 96 PGs, placing him around starters like Elf, Teague, and DSJ, none of whom are considered anything special. This means that, no matter what, Lillard is going to be matched up with the weakest defenders this team has to offer. If this game manages to stay close, it is because Dame had one of his crazy games. He is someone who can get you 30 DKP in a quarter. If they come out playing tonight, this is going to be the game of the night both from a fantasy and game perspective. I hope you all take my advice on this one.


Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):


D’Angelo vs. Cavs - My initial pick for MSC before I dug in more, D-Lo (8500) has been on fire lately. While he has thrown in a couple of bad games along the way, D’Angelo’s last few games have seen him get 60.25, 36.25, 54, 29.25, 33, 47.75, and 52.5 DKP. He is not going to be safe by any means. But what he is going to do is produce here. He is matched up against Collin Sexton, who is the worst defender in the NBA. The Cavs are awful at D as a team, anyway. I know the Cavs are one of the slowest teams in the NBA (they have been bouncing from 25th-30th lately), and Vegas has given an appropriate 221 total cause of it. But the spread of -6.5 means this should wind up being a close game, with a ton of points scored. Most of which will be by D’Angelo. He will be another one of the first people I lock in today. DeMarre (4600) will be back which makes it hard to play anyone else besides Joe Harris (4600), who is the only guy here who should see a guaranteed 30 minutes.


Underpriced Cavs - If you read what I said about D’Angelo, you know that the Cavs are really, really slow and the Nets are the fastest team in the NBA over the last few weeks. So that means the Cavs, who normally see one of the lowest number of possessions a game, will see a marked increase which should help everyone’s production. Again, that 221 total is not as high as some other teams’ today, but it is astronomical compared to the fact the Cavs normally live around the 205 range. Love (7000) is far too overpriced for someone playing 16 minutes right now. However, this opens up a ton of Center minutes. And those are Center minutes against the Nets, so they are worth a lot. This means Nance (6700) and Chriss (3900) are both fantastic plays again today. I know Cedi (5600) and Zizic (4800) are both probable, and either could cut into the production of both these guys, so pay attention. Either way, though, whoever is going to be getting the bulk of PF/C minutes in this game need to be played. Right now, that is Nance and Chriss. If that changes, so will I. As risky as they are, Sexton (4900) and Clarkson (5300) are just underpriced for how many points the Cavs are supposed to score and their normal role in all that. If you want a punt, and he starts again, Knight (3200) could get 20 minutes and pay off. It’s risky, but someone to consider if a lot of value doesn’t open up today.


Underpriced Pistons - No one is going to say a game against Boston is a ripe environment for fantasy production, but there are still some places we can get behind here. First Blake (8900), who should be near 10k, who gets a matchup with Marcus Morris (Who is awful. The only really horrible defender on the Celtics team). And Blake is going to make him pay all game. If he doesn’t get 50 DKP I would be pretty surprised. Ditto for Drummond (9100). He’s a little more expensive, and only has C eligibility, so it’ll be tougher to get to him, but he will get close to 40 minutes and he is the type of Center that can give Horford fits. This would be even better for him if Baynes plays and gets the start somehow. I also want to point out Kennard (3900) who will get near 30 minutes every game and shoot a bunch. Ditto Ellington (3800). I know he was pretty chalky and he put up 9 DKP in 19 minutes. But you have to look and see that he shot 1-8 including 7 threes. If some of those go in, he may get more minutes, and he certainly would have paid off his cheap price tag. While people may be scared here, I will be in on Ellington (barring some amazing value that will open up later on at some point).


KAT - The last time couple times I put KAT (10300) as my MSC play of the day, he got into immediate foul trouble against an awful team. Both times, he finished the first half with, like, 10 DKP. And, somehow, both games, he wound up over 40 DKP. Not that he saved your day, but he showed just how many points he is going to get you in a half against a bad team when everything goes right. Well, right now the place you have to attack the Rockets is at C, where they have an overworked and overmatched Faried as the only real option. KAT has inches and skill on him and he should feast here. Wiggins (6500) is questionable, so, should he miss, it would be another big boost to KAT. It would also give a boost to Teague (5800) who should get 35 minutes again and is underpriced for being healthy. Ditto Rose (5900) who is probable, and would eat into a lot of the usage Wiggins would leave behind. I also need to point out Saric (4600). If you didn’t follow the game, you would have missed that Saric got 2 fouls within a minute of the game starting. Seriously, like, the first two plays of the game were Saric fouls. He managed 33 minutes, anyway. He only got 2 more fouls the rest of the game, and he wound up with 37.5 DKP. If he gets another start, I will be a big fan of his as well. If Wiggins winds up missing, I will lock KAT and him in quickly.


Houston - I honestly don’t think anyone on this Houston team is priced high enough you need to get off them immediately. Harden (11800) has a shoulder injury, but he got more than 60 DKP against Dallas last game, and this is a much better matchup. He is going to be doing everything he can to keep his 30 point streak going, and I would be shocked if he doesn’t continue it. CP3 (7600) has 44, 49.5, 40.5, and 38.5 DKP over his last 4 games. He should definitely get into the 40s again. Like I said a week ago, he is going to be 8k soon, so get on him before he gets there. Faried (6600) is getting harder to recommend. I know they need him. I know he’s gonna get the minutes. I know KAT is a bad defender. But he just keeps producing at value, and I just don’t see a lot of wiggle room with Harden on the court. Austin Rivers will be out for this game, which makes the trio of Gordon (4500), Green (3800), and Shumpert (3800) much better plays. I would consider any one of them in a tourney, but I wouldn’t play them all together.


Nuggets - If you are going against the Kings, odds are you are in a nice pace up spot, the game has a high total, and it’s projected to be close. All 3 of those check out today for the Nuggets. They are also going to be seeing a really, really poor D. I know it’s beyond obvious, but Jokic (10100) should be priced, like, 1500 more in this matchup. He was another one of my considerations for MSC play today, and I could totally understand wanting to jump on that before anything else. Don’t ignore Murray (6200), though. He has shown you he can get you 50 DKP and Sacramento is incredibly bad against PGs. Fox is not a good defender, and Murray gets enough to do with Jokic that both can easily pay off here. Barton (5500) and Beasley (5200) are underpriced for their minutes/roles with Harris out, but I will still have a hard time getting to either today. I think they are safe, with a decent ceiling, but I think there are a few better spots to attack. That being said, If either wound up in my lineup, I wouldn’t be upset.


Warriors - Cousins will be rested for this game, which means the FarTooManyCooks will be downgraded to just TooManyCooks for one game. But their prices have stayed down as if Cousins was playing, so there is plenty to take advantage of here. If you read my MSC section on Lillard, you know this game has the highest total on the slate, with a great spread of GS -4.5. Portland is an average defense that can be taken advantage of by big SFs and wing shooting. Wouldn’t you know it, that just happens to make Durant (9300) and Curry (9200) both awesome plays. Honestly, at these prices, they could both EASILY pay off. Klay (6500) will line up against CJ, who is the weakest link on this team, and will see a nice production bump with Cousins out. As I always say, Dray (6000) is a fine play every game he is below 7k. The more he is under 7k, the better the play. And with Cousins out, he gets a bump as well. Looney (3700) should get the start, and get 30 minutes. I will love him here. Ditto Iguodala (3800) who will get 30 minutes and a ton of run in this game.

Suns vs Clippers - This game doesn’t have a total or spread yet, for some reason. But I wouldn’t be surprised if, when it all comes down to it, this emerges as the highest total of the day. If it’s over 240, I wouldn’t be shocked at all. I also think both teams are bad enough the spread should be something along the lines of LAC -4 or something around there. Basically, this is probably the best game on the slate and I will probably go heaviest here. I expect most people to be on GS/POR and HOU/MIN, and for good reason. I have talked about how much I love those games. But the people in this game could get just as many FP as the people in that game, and at a fraction of the total price. The most expensive player here is Booker (8300). With Tyler Johnson Questionable with a sprained ankle, he may be pushed back into more PG minutes, meaning if he doesn’t get you 50 DKP today I would be shocked. I will also point out that the Clippers and Suns are the two worst teams in the NBA against Centers. No team gives up as many points to a position as these two give up to Centers. So sign me up for all of the Ayton (6700), Montrezl (6900) and, if you don’t mind the risk, Zubac (4000) and Holmes (3700). The Clippers are almost as bad against PF as they are against C, so I would also give some serious consideration to Jackson (5900). If you play Jackson, i don’t recommend Oubre (5700), but if you are off Jackson, get on the Oubre wagon. Either of these two could get you a 50 DKP game tonight and the other one will get you 15DKP. I also love LouWill (7100) who always goes underowned since he comes off the bench. Additionally, Shamet (4000) has 26.75 and 28 DKP over his last couple games. He is getting 30+ minutes and, against this Suns team, he can push 30 DKP again pretty easily.


Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):


Bucks vs. Pacers - This is going to be a defensive game, between 2 defensive teams. I know the Bucks have been playing at the 3rd fastest pace lately, but the Pacers are plodding and slow, currently ranked 22nd. I don’t like playing people against Bledsoe (6900) or Collison (5800). Brogdon (5500) and Wes Matthews (4400) will be paired against each other. Both of these guys are underpriced for this game. I don’t know if Brogdon has the ceiling to win you a tournament, but he certainly should pay off his value here and could certainly exceed it. Wes Matthews played 30 minutes in his first game with the Pacers, and he shot the ball 10 times in a game that only had 189 total points. This one is projected to have 218.5. It’s certainly possible Matthews shoots more than that and reaches value just from raw points. Middleton (6400) and Bojan (5600) are both fairly priced. Meaning I expect them to get about 4.5x-5x. That doesn’t mean they are good plays, it means they aren’t. I don’t want fair priced players, I want underpriced players. I liked Bojan a lot more before Wes got here, taking a bunch of his shots. Giannis (11200) is a freak and no one can stop him. If he isn’t owned tomorrow, I don’t know how you can’t take a chance. Thad Young (6000) is a fine defender, but won’t have a chance against Giannis. Young himself is also fairly priced. I know MIL has been weak against PF on the year, I just don’t see him getting enough value at that price. Speaking of fairly priced people- Myles (6600) and BroLo (4900).


Sixers vs Knicks - The Sixers have 5 all stars and the Knicks are the worst team in basketball. I know you can never assume anything, but.. I mean.. Come on. The Sixers are coming off a tough loss to the Celtics last night. After the game, Embiid (10600) blamed the loss on himself, saying “he sleep walked through 3 quarters.” Assuming they don’t rest him today, I imagine he will take that personally and try to come out today and show it was a one game problem. I know he has a tough matchup against Jordan (5700), who is one of the best defenders in the NBA, but Embiid has shown he is matchup proof. I think this will be a game they need to play Jordan closer to 30 minutes, so he is cheap at this price. I also like the PGs, here, with Simmons (8400) and DSJ (6300) seemingly safe choices if this game stays close, but far overpriced if they only get 3 quarters. My favorites plays here are the cheap Knicks, Kadeem Allen (4100) and Mitch Robinson (4100). Both dudes are getting back up run, getting serious minutes, and putting up some serious PPM in the time they get. If this game blows out (or when), they are going to soak up all that time and usage too. I love both of these guys here.


Wizards vs Raptors - A 233 total? Yay! A TOR -11 spread? Booo. And I think, with Toronto at home, joined by Jeremy Lin (4300), that -11 is overly generous. Kawhi (9400) hasn’t been producing for his price lately, and I imagine that will continue in a game that he doesn’t need to dominate. Siakam (6500) is the safest of the big guys (who we want to attack Washington’s biggest weakness with), so, if you think this stays close, I would recommend you give him heavy consideration. But the Center situation, which is the best place to attack Washington, is a mess with Gasol (6800) throwing a spanner in the works. I really have no idea how you can pay that price for him or Ibaka (6100)when neither may get more than 24 minutes. And that’s if this game stays close. The one play I want here is Jeremy Lin. Give me ALL the Jeremy Lin. Toronto is also weakest against Centers which means I have a ton of interest in Portis (6300). As a bench player, he will probably get blow out run anyway since they want to keep him around 30 minutes. I don’t think anyone is safe in this matchup, especially since we don’t know how the coaches respond to various situations with their new rosters, but Portis is vastly underpriced for the 6x he should easily provide you here. If Sato (5900) plays, I have no interest in anyone else here. If he misses, you have to make a decision- if you don’t assume blow out, Beal (8700) will get you 40+ minutes and 60 DKP again. If you think this game does blow out, and they limit Beal’s minutes, McRae (3500) would be the best play for you.


Heat vs Mavs - A spread of DAL -2.5? Alright! A total of 209? Yuck. A game between the 27th and 29th paced teams in the NBA? Oh god, no thanks. That doesn’t mean you can’t get anything from this game (or any of these games), it just means I would limit your exposure. Doncic (8800) should be given serious consideration every game until he is 10k. Seriously. There’s no need to go further than that. I will also add Hardaway (5100) is in the best place to attack the Heat. I know he’s coming off a bad game in which he was chalky, but he is a scoring dependent player. If he shot doesn’t land, he will screw you. If he shot goes in today, he could win you a ton of cash at his low price. The only Heat players I would consider here are Waiters (4300) and James Johnson (4100), neither of which I like that much anyway.


Kings of Spreading Minutes - It’s just hard to trust any of these Kings players to get a considerable chunk of minutes. Worse yet, they play completely different on the road then they do at home for some reason. WCS (5300) tends to get less minutes (and produce worse). If you think that’s all malarkey, they are going to need him against that huge DEN front court, but I can understand If you, like me, are too hesitant. Really, the only place DEN is weak is on the wing, at SG/SF. With Harris out, this is a spot DEN has really had a really hard time with. For this reason, if I am going to go anywhere here (and, again, if I do, I will acknowledge they probably only get 30 minutes) I am going with Hield (6600), Bogdan (4900) and Barnes (5000) but in reverse order. I also think they are going to need massive minutes from Bagley (5900) so, again, if you are not averse to the risk, he is someone who has shown you he can get you 12 DKP or 55. Be prepared for anything in between that.


Situations to monitor:


Kyrie QUESTIONABLE - When they announced Kyrie would miss last night’s game, they also said they didn’t know what his status for tonight would be. Since we won’t get that information for a long time (most teams don’t do a shootaround on the 2nd day of a back-to-back), it means we should plan for both eventualities. If Kyrie (9400) plays, he will line up against R Jax, one of the worst defenders in the NBA, and I will be all over him. If he is out, I will have a hard time picking who I like on this Boston team. I think Horford (6200) would have to play extra minutes given the size of the Pistons front court. I would love him at that price. One thing we have to be careful of, though, is the Pistons have been pretty incredible at limiting fantasy points the last month. Over that time, they have been above average against every position (though weakest against PG/SG). The incredible thing, though, is they have only allowed 211.3 fantasy points per game, total. The next closest team is the Pacers who only allow 214.9. This is mainly a function of the Pistons playing at a snail’s pace recently. But, whatever the reason, the Celtics are only 18th in pace, so it’s not exactly like we should expect a fast paced game with no defense anyway. Given the Pistons weakness, I would also consider Smart (4800) and Brown (5100) who would get a lot of extra shots with Kyrie being out.


Dunn QUESTIONABLE / Conley QUESTIONABLE- a CHI -1.5 spread? Yay! A 203 total? Oh God, no! Two teams who have been playing at slow paces, this game is just not the best place to look when you have 10 other games to choose from. If Dunn misses, LaVine (7300) would be an interesting play, but I would look more at Arcidiacono (3500) who should get the start and a bunch of minutes. If Conley misses, I think you have to look to Delon Wright (3600)again. I also think that Avery Bradley (3400) had a career game. I wouldn’t chase those points, but he is only 3400 so it’s not like you have to commit a huge chunk of your salary. It’s hard not to pay that off if Conley misses, and you saw how high his ceiling could go. They said JoVal wouldn’t play back-to-backs, so that would leave us with only JJJ (6100), Rabb (5800), and Noah (4000). If they rest Noah as well, we have to be all over the other two guys. If all 3 play, Noah is cheap and can get you 30 minutes now, apparently.


Hey, You. I still love you. Now let’s win some money tonight!!!

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