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bathrobeDFS Breakdown for March 11th!

Donovan Mitchell

Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. I will go over tonight’s slate as someone that plays on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that wanna help Operation: Get Me A Laptop.

It also should go without saying- this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started!

The Daily Slate:

Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):

Kings vs Wizards - The highest total on the slate by 14 whole points. A spread of WAS -2. The fastest and 4th fastest teams in the NBA. Who both give up top 10 DKPPG. Who are terrible at D. I’m pretty sure that this is the game of the night, and it’s not even close. Given his matchup against the entirety of the Kings team, Brad Beal (9700), who is priced so high people aren’t playing him, who just got 67 DKP in an OT game against MIN, and saw his price not budge an inch, is one of the best plays of the night. He has been one of the leading producers in the NBA since Wall has been out and, while people may see his price at almost 10k and scoff, he is someone that can actually get you a 3x2 every night, and, if you can get someone who has the chance to be the highest scorer on the slate, in the best game on the slate, I don’t know how you say no.

I also have a ton of interest in the frontcourt players the Wizards are running out there. They all can’t produce at once, so you have to make sure you only choose 1 or 2 at the most. But, with that in mind, I love the spot that Ariza (6000), Parker (5400), Green (4400), Portis (5900), and Bryant (4100) are in. I think Bryant is too expensive, so I would use him the least. But Ariza and Portis SHOULD see 30 minutes here, and either Green or Parker (I would much prefer Jabari, even with the extra salary) should have a great chance to go off.

The final Wizard I will mention is Sato (5800), who is priced high enough that, like Beal, I expect ownership on him to be far less than it should be. He is probably going to get you 30 DKP today, but he has the upside to get you 45-50DKP, with a 3x2, if everything goes well. Given the other people around his price, and the matchup Sato has, both personally and as a team, I would love to get over the field on Sato if you are in MME, and give him a serious look if you are only playing the one lineup.

On the Kings side, we are going to be dealing with a team that really does not play well on the road. It’ll be tough to focus on anyone here, given how much they spread out their minutes, but there’s still plenty to love. First up, the Wizards are worst in the NBA against the PF position. With Bagley out, I would expect this means Bjelica (4200) will get another 25-30 minutes and, against this team, and with how good his D is, I expect him to push that 10x boundary. He is one of the best plays on the slate, hands down. For much of the reason why I like Bjelica, I will also be all over Barnes (5200), who is getting damn near 40 minutes a game, and will get some of those against some of the weakest defenders the Wizards have to offer. I would be shocked if he, also, doesn’t easily hit value here.

Also, the Wizards have been horrific against 3s this season, meaning that, if we can find some effective 3 point shooters on the opposing team, we are gonna get people in an amazing spot. So, step right on up, Hield (7400) and Bogdan (5500). Again, while I don’t know if I would play both of these dudes together, either one of them could have a night tonight that allows you to win a GPP.

Lastly, the Wizards are also pretty awful against Centers. It’s hard to trust WCS (5700) on the road, ever, or Giles (4200) at that price, getting 19 or so minutes. But, in GPPs, both are seriously in play. The fact you can’t trust them doesn’t mean they don’t have a ceiling game in them. And, if they’re going to have one, the Wizards is one of the easiest teams to do that against.

Andre Drummond - Sure, the Nets are terrible against all forms of bigs. So, while they are particularly horrible against Cs, Blake (8300) also has a fantastic shot at dominating this Nets team today. At this price, it’ll be incredibly hard to get off him. But that’s precisely why I will spend up to be unique and take Drummond (9100), getting the full on “Center against the Nets” experience. We’re going to have to start calling Drummond the Optometrist after this game, since he’s gonna make all those Nets see 20/20 tonight (booooo). With Joe Harris also one of the worst defenders in the NBA, I would also have some interest here in Kennard (4700) as a GPP dart. He isn’t necessarily the safest play, but he is someone who will be asked to shoot and, given how easily he’ll be able to deal with Harris, he may get more shots than normal. Exactly the kind of thing you need in a GPP to take home some big money.

Dinwiddie - Again, sure, I know D Lo (8000) is going to be lined up against R Jax, another one of the worst defenders in the NBA. But we have seen Dinwiddie (6000) be the one to pick up the reins and run with it since returning to full strength from his injury. He will also get a bunch of run against R Jax, as well. In his last 2 games, the 2 games where he was finally back to 30 minutes, he has put up 44 and 45.5 DKP. He took 14 and 21 shots. He is doing everything you’d need someone priced 8000 to do, and you are going to get him at a massive discount tonight. I do have to add, the odds are good he is incredibly popular as well, meaning that, if you want to take the chance that this incredibly slow, 2nd-best-in-the-NBA D of Detroit can slow him down, there’s plenty of other places to find some value. I just don’t know if anyone is going to get you as much, in that price range, as Dinwiddie does.

With the Nets hanging on to their playoff hopes, and the Pistons only 0.5 games ahead of the Nets, I would expect them to play whoever they have to, as long as they have to. For that reason, I am also a big fan of Jarrett Allen (4800) at that price. He could, very easily, get 30 minutes. Given how huge the Pistons frontcourt is, I don’t know how they would avoid it (barring foul trouble). Again, I know the Pistons are slow, but I also know the Drummond is a subpar defender and, at 4800, I don’t know how you don’t take a serious look at Allen,

Donovan - This should be another fantastic game for us to target. It has a 227.5 total. A close spread of UTA -3.5. The 3rd and 11th fastest teams. Incredibly consolidated usage among only a few players. And, defensively, we have a Thunder team who is 2nd worst in the NBA lately against SGs. If you don’t understand that, just look at the 65 DKP LouWill dropped on this team last game. With Rubio out, I know Donovan (8400) is going to get some run at PG, but, with Exum (3200) expected to play, he will also get a ton of run at SG. Donovan is 4th in the NBA in usage. If this game stays close, it’s going to be because Donovan gets you 60 DKP. I don’t think that’s crazy, at all. Depending on how many minutes he’s supposed to get, you have to consider/play Exum. The last couple people I would play here are Favors (5800) and Jae (4800). Both would get decent personal matchups, and nice production boosts, against this fast Thunder team that hasn’t been playing good D lately.

Thunder Big Three - Ok, so, over the last month+, the Jazz have been 2nd best in the NBA against PG, and at preventing PGs from getting points. One of those games was against Russ (10800), though, and he got 81.75 DKP against them (in an OT game, but still). He is my least favorite of the 3 studs for this Thunder team but you all know what and who Russ is. Especially when he’s underpriced. Next is PG13 (9500), who will be lined up against Royce most of this game. He is also staggered with Russ, so he will get a ton of minutes where he is playing against the 2nd unit Jazz players, and be the only of the 3 studs out there. He should be one of the highest scorers on this slate today, and he is drastically underpriced. The last person I want is Adams (6100). He is not someone I play often, or, at all. But given that the Jazz are one of the worst teams against Centers, and that he got 45 DKP last time these teams matched up, I think he will be an interesting pivot off of other higher owned Centers. For the same reason, make sure you take Noel (3300) at that price. Even if he only gets 20 minutes, he’s gonna smash 3300 here.

Celtics vs Clippers - Ok, this is an easy one as well. The Clippers are AWFUL against Cs and PGs. So Kyrie (8900) and Horford (6600), who could both go nuts tomorrow, are far too cheap. Especially considering how much of a pace up spot this is, against a terrible defense, in a game with a 226 total, that Boston is only supposed to win by 1.5. Kyrie and Horford are gonna get 35+ minutes. They are going to demolish this team together. They honestly aren’t going to need anyone else.

On the Clippers side, the Celtics are pretty much a bad matchup. This is a pace down spot. The Celtics are 15th in pace, but only give up the 22nd most DKPPG. The only place they’ve been weak is against SF/PF. So, if you are going to go somewhere here, I would look at Gallo (6400) first. He will be lined up with Marcus Morris, one of the worst PF defenders in the NBA. He is going to continue to get a lion’s share of the usage in the starting 5, and I will gladly take this matchup at low ownership. Shamet (3800) is also too cheap for someone playing 30+ minutes at SF and taking 9-12 shots a game. Especially, again, playing SF here. While I wouldn’t play them for their spot, I would play both LouWill (6800) and Montrezl (6200) at those prices, especially if this game stays as close as it’s supposed to. They are the ones that will close this game out, and they are the ones that can surpass 50 DKP.

Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):

Raptors vs Cavs - With Kawhi back, this game has a nice enough total of 222, but a really bad spread of TOR -10.5. Given how much of a horrorshow the Cavs are, I find it hard to believe it will even be that close. Honestly, I’m kind of surprised they didn’t announced they are resting Kawhi today, as well, since he most assuredly will not be needed against this Cavs G-League team. If you think this game blows out, it’ll be hard to play anyone except some of the backup dudes - like a Clarkson (5100). If you don’t care, and, in a 6 game slate I can understand why that would be, you have to start here at Lowry (7600), who has been hot lately, even when Kawhi has played. He is going to get one of the best matchups in the NBA - against Collin Sexton, who is only better than Trae Young on the season. With Nance out, I would also take a long look at Siakam (7200), who should spend a good deal of time guarded by Cedi Osman, another one of the worst defenders in basketball. On the Cavs side, with Nance and Tristan out, you have to take a shot on Love (7700) at this price, especially if Ibaka gets the start. You could also take a long look at Zizic (3900), who should be forced into a decent amount of minutes with all the other bigs for Cleveland out. Also, he would get the blow out run if/when this game gets out of hand

Hornets vs Rockets - This is a game that shouldn’t be too close, even though Vegas only has HOU winning by 8. The Hornets are, at best, a mediocre team. But they are very, very slow. And the Rockets are a good team who also play very, very slow. Even against a Mavs team that is slow but gives up a TON of points yesterday, the final score was only 94-93. I don’t know how we can expect it to get to the 225.5 total Vegas expects. The Hornets have one really exceptional player, **Kemba (8100), and he will be defended by CP3, who is fantastic and should be able to shut Kemba down most of the game. I know Kemba is underpriced here for his normal production and his ceiling, and, thus, I expect him to be incredibly popular tonight. I will be elsewhere though. With the Rockets main weakness coming at SF, I will look to Lamb (5800) primarily followed by Batum (5700). Additionally, given how bad a defender Capela is, I also would love taking Zeller (5100) seeing as how I expect he’ll be 5% owned, if that. Last time these teams met up, on 2/27, Zeller got 34 minutes. He only got you 25.25 DKP, but, still that’s 5x and I would expect that closer to his projection floor than ceiling.

On the Rockets side, you can always play Harden (11400), especially in a matchup against Batum. But the real weakness of the Hornets is at PG, so I would love to take CP3 (7100). Again, though, I don’t expect this game to stay close so I would only consider those guys in MME. I don’t think I would be able to go to Harden in a single lineup. And, while I will consider CP3, I just don’t know if I’ll be able to get there. Gordon (5200) is someone you can play regardless, at that price. Also, Green (3300) is too cheap, even with Faried (4800) coming back. And, if Faried is playing with no limits, I would love to go there.

Alright that’s everything for Monday! Best of luck everyone! I’ll hopefully see you all later for a good chalk/bad chalk, though, as always, it depends if my wife needs her laptop today!


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