Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. I also have a Venmo and Patreon for those that wanna help Operation: Get Me A Laptop. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started!
Kings vs Knicks
O/U - 228, SAC -4.5
Pace Rankings (last 15 games): SAC 1st, NYK 19th
Injuries: Hezonja QUESTIONABLE, Frank N OUT
Defensive Stats (last month): SAC - 236 DKPPG (9th most - minus 8 from pace) - weaker than average against C, PF, SG and PG
Defensive Stats (last month): NYK - 231.1 DKPG (13th most - plus 6 from pace) - weak against PF, then weaker than average against SG/C
Players in the top 50 in Usage (last 15 games): Mudiay (34th), Hield (42nd)
Players in the top 10 in DRPM: Fox (9th - PG)
Players in the bottom 5 in DRPM: Knox (WORST - SF)
The Daily Slate:
This is going to be the best slate we’ve had in quite some time. All of these games have the potential to stay close, and to get 230 or more total points.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Hawks - First, we need to acknowledge that the Hawks are playing the Nets, which means we need to find the Center and play him. With Dedmon DOUBTFUL, that means that we are going to want a ton of Len (5000) and, to some degree, Collins (7200) (unless he is limited to 25 minutes again). Both of these dudes, in this matchup, should be able to eat. That’s on top of the fact the Nets are one of the fastest teams in the NBA, and this game has a total of 235 with a nice spread of BK -3.5.
Second, Trae Young (8200) saw his price climb to 9300 2 games ago and, after a couple tough matchups against Justise and Derrick White, saw his price tumble down 1100. In a matchup against the Nets and D Lo specifically, Young is prime to have a massive comeback game here, under the radar as well.
The final person I want to look at is Prince (4500), who had been getting 30 minutes a game before the matchup with San Antonio. He will be matched up during those 30 minutes with a lot of Joe Harris, who is a terrible defender. Also, the Nets give up a significant increase in both 3 point % and fg% to SFs.
Nets - The first thing we need to fall in love with here is the guards, who will be lined up against Trae Young, the worst defender in the NBA. Even though I’m not sure how many minutes, exactly, they will get, I absolutely LOVE Dinwiddie (5600) today. He is drastically underpriced, and he is back. He got 30 min and 45 DKP last game against a similarly awful Cleveland D, that plays at a much, much slower pace. So, if anything, I wouldn’t be shocked if Dinwiddie gets 50+DKP here. I also wouldn’t be shocked if Russell (8100) topped 50 points, but, obviously, his price makes him much less attractive. I assume Dinwiddie is chalk tomorrow, so you may want to pay up to differentiate yourself on a 5 game slate. This is also better since the 8 or so minutes that Napier would get would go back to Dinwiddie and D Lo.
With Treveon also out another game, I don’t mind taking a shot going to Carroll (3900) or Kurucs (4600). They will be lined up against Collins, who is, by far now, the worst defensive PF in the NBA.
KAT - Sure, Teague (5800) is underpriced in this matchup. And this matchup, with a 243 total, is one of the best we’ve seen this season. But no one today is even close to in the same ballpark as KAT (10400). Huge pace up matchup. Washington is abysmal against all forms of Bigs. Bobby Portis is one of the worst individual defenders among all Centers. There is really nothing bad to say here, except that, without any sort of doubt, he is going to be the highest owned player tonight. The entire slate is going to come down to that one question- Do you risk fading KAT tonight?
Jabari Parker - With the Wolves having a serious problem defending SF/PF lately, especially when Saric is on the court, Parker (5300) should once again be able to get you damn near 7x in this matchup if he gets 30 minutes. And, honestly, he could even get you more than that. While people will all over Beal (9700) and Ariza (5800) here, and for good reason, given the price considerations, and the lack of ownership I forsee him getting, give me all of Jabari in one of the best matchups we’ve seen.
If Satoransky (5600) is going to keep getting 40+ minutes, and it’s certainly possible he does, he will keep giving you 40 DKP as well. Which means he is also grossly underpriced, especially, again, in this matchup against this awful Wolves defense.
Celtics vs Lakers - As of right now, this is the only game that doesn’t have any Vegas information out. This is due to the fact that Ingram, Kuzma, and, to a much lesser extent, Stephenson are QUESTIONABLE. We also know that LeBron will be limited to around 30 minutes a game, making it exceedingly difficult to pay for him, until his price starts tanking a la Brow. Even if everyone winds up playing, given how stellar the Celtics D is, and how horribly the Lakers have been doing, I don’t particularly see this game as staying close. However, who cares about that. It’s a 5 game slate, and it’s certainly possible that the Celtics spend too much time enjoying LA and this game winds up closer than we would expect. So, if it does, where are we looking?
First of all, the Lakers have been the worst team against PG over the last month or so, meaning first and foremost, if you think this game stays close, or you just don’t care, you have to go for Kyrie (9000). His price has come down, he’s in a great pace up matchup, the Lakers give up the most DKPPG in the NBA. He’s the only Celtic in the top 50 in usage. And he can easily get you 60 DKP here. Again, if you think this game stays close, I wouldn’t think it crazy to start your lineups with Kyrie and KAT and filling in the rest.
Next, given how poor the Lakers have been against Centers (almost as bad as they are against PG), I don’t know how you don’t take a chance on Horford (6600) here. He is cheap enough that, even if he only gets 3 quarters or so, he can pay it off. If he gets a full game, he could absolutely smash this price. He just got 50 DKP and there’s no reason he couldn’t easily do it again. Who is going to stop him? JaVale McGee and a hobbled Kuzma if he plays?
The final person I want to recommend on the Celtics side is Jaylen Brown (4600). He is the play you make if you think this game blows out. When the Celtics blow games out, Brown gets his back up run + blow out run against backups that he completely outmatches. Those are the games he puts up almost 10x. Given how fast and terrible this Lakers team is, I would think this is one of the games he has a serious chance of getting there.
The Lakers side all comes down to the health of the stars. Given that they are limiting LeBron and basically waving the white flag on this season, I don’t see any reason to push either Ingram or Kuzma, so I think it would be safe to just assume they are out until we hear word after shootaround tomorrow afternoon, on the east coast. If Kuzma and Chandler are out, I would still expect JaVale (4300) to only get around 20 minutes. With the price increase, it’ll be tough for me to go there. Moritz Wagner (3000), on the other hand, would be the person getting that other 28 minutes. Last game he got over 20 DKP. He’s not the best producer, but he is a producer that is the bare minimum and lets you fit in whoever you want.
I was going to say that Rondo (6700) has seen his price come up too high to call him a lock, but then I saw that this game is going to be, not only on national TV, on national BROADCAST TV. He may get 60 DKP by halftime. Obviously I am exaggerating, but Rondo, if Ingram is out, is still a decent play, even considering the matchup. He should still get you around 35 minutes and, at the PPM he will put out with no one else on the floor (even though he doesn’t like to shoot), he should still exceed value here.
Josh Hart (3600) will round this out as someone you can play regardless. He got 38 minutes last game and, although he failed to produce, he still got almost 40 minutes, and has a decent chance of getting that 25DKP you’d really want at his price.
Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):
Hornets vs Bucks - One of 2 games with a seriously concerning spread, this game has a 228 total, with the Bucks projected to win by 12.5 points. That will make it hard to pay for Giannis (11300), especially given the fact the Hornets have been playing at the 27th fastest pace lately. If you want a pivot off of KAT that people won’t be on, though, go for it. He could certainly have one of his 80 DKP games. I would just be much less surprised if it was one of his 50 DKP games. Given their weakness against PGs and C, I would take a chance on Bledsoe (6300) or BroLo (5400) at those prices, but I’m just not sure here. Also, with Donte back, it’s hard to play any of the low priced punts.
On the Hornets side, they are going against one of the best teams in the NBA, with one of the best defenses in the NBA. They only have one real weakness, and that is they don’t stop giving up 3s. So that means, basically, most of the Hornets roster is in play. Kemba (8300), especially, is one of the NBA leaders in 3s, although he will be matched against Bledsoe for most of the game. A lot of the Hornets are decent at taking 3s though, so look at Marvin (4700) next, since he is 2nd on the team in 3s, attempted 3s and 3PA. 3rd would be Batum (5700) and Lamb (5700), who both attempt 4.1 3s a game.
Blazers vs Suns - Another game to be careful of, this one also has a near 230 total with a 12.5 point spread, this one 229.5 with the Blazers 12.5 point home favorites. The Suns are 13th in pace lately, but give up the 3rd most DKPPG. The Blazers are 16th in pace, but give up the 28th most DKPPG. That is a tale of 2 defenses, to be sure. So where can we go here, if anywhere?
Dame (8800) saw his price rise 700 in one game, on the back of his 76.75 DKP performance against the Thunder. While I don’t think he will do that again, against this defense there’s no reason he can’t. The only thing that will stop him is not getting the minutes, either due to a blow out, fouls, or something else. The Suns are also worst in the NBA against SGs meaning, if you want to pivot off of a popular Dame, you can go down to CJ (6100), who, as someone that is so scoring dependent, is a lot more of a risk. The Suns are also one of the worst teams against Centers, meaning you can go to Nurkic (7000) if, again, you think he gets the minutes.
My favorite play here, though, is Kanter (4000). I do expect this game to not be close and, even if it stays relatively close, I think it would make sense to let Kanter handle a heavier load. If it DOES blow out, Kanter is going to get a ton of minutes and can get you 10x in this situation.
If you go anywhere on the Suns, I would start with the obvious choice of Devin Booker (8400). He’s not going to be the safest here, considering the Blazers have been particularly good against SGs, but they also have CJ playing there, who is bad at D. If they switch off, and I would expect them to, you can get off that by getting some shares of Oubre (6200) or even Tyler Johnson (5300).
If this game does blow out, Jackson (4100) and Mikal Bridges (3900) would be in fantastic spots, but I would really love Holmes (3400) matched up against Kanter.
Situations to monitor:
Kuzma and Ingram and Stephenson QUESTIONABLE
Ok! That’s it! I will be enjoying some family time this weekend, so I doubt there will be any update articles, but I still hope to put out a bunch of MLB content! Best of luck everyone! And make sure you take the time to tell someone you love how much they mean to you this week.