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bathrobeDFS breakdown for NBA V-Day!


Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!

Yesterday In Review

***My Lineup-*** -

Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff

Lowry | 7300 | 46 | 6.3x | 37.3%| 33.5%| 3.8

Beal | 8700 | 51.75 | 5.9x | 9.3%| 19.7%| 10.4

Hayward | 4800 | 37.75 | 7.9x | 16.8%| 19.8%| 3

Nance | 6700 | 30.5 | 4.6x | 7.8%| 31.4%| 23.6!!!!!!!

Ayton | 6700 | 33 | 4.9x | 13.1%| 18.6%| 5.5

Arcidiacono | 3500 | 27.5 | 7.9x | 6.8%| 7.1%| 0.3

Looney | 3700 | 20 | 5.4x | 8.8%| 11.8%| 3

Lillard | 8600 | 47.75 | 5.5x | 14.8%| 16.4%| 1.6

**Total** | 50000 | 294.25 | 5.885x| | |


***My Best Lineup:*** (487th in the Quarter Jukebox)

Name | Price | DKP

Clarkson | 5300 | 64.5

D’Angelo | 8500 | 55.75

Durant | 9300 | 47

Chriss | 3900 | 38.25

Ayton | 6700 | 33

DSJ | 6300 | 24.25

Siakam | 6500 | 67

Arcidiacono | 3500 | 27.5

**Total** | 50000 | 357.25


***Best Possible Lineup-*** - [Using the free lineup rewind tool on fantasycruncher](https://www.fantasycruncher.com/lineup-rewind/draftkings/NBA/), I find the highest possible lineup that could have been played.

Name | Price | DKP

Clarkson | 5300 | 64.5

Crawford | 3300 | 36.25

Giannis | 11200 | 82.75

Horford | 6200 | 51.5

Siakam | 6500 | 67

Teague | 5800 | 52.25

Otto Porter | 5600 | 56.5

Millsap | 4700 | 52.25

**Total** | **48600** | 463


Look at that. The best possible lineup only used 48600 of salary. That’s the first time since I started doing this that it went under 49500.


Analysis-

Man, 11 game slates are a bit of a clusterfuck, huh??? Lillard was my first lock, as my play of the day. I loved him. Then with the Kawhi and Sato news, I got Lowry and Beal in my lineup to run the game back. I also loved Ayton so I got him in there. That left me a couple spots. I wanted Nance with Love out. If he hadn’t fouled out, that would have crushed it. I also took Arcidiacono with Dunn out, as I recommended. This left me 2 slots, so I got Looney in and that left me with 4800. As much as I don’t like playing Hayward, it just fit in too well not to go there.


The Daily Slate:

Happy Valentine’s Day!! It’s another chance to tell all of you how grateful I am for all the love you all have shown me and tell you exactly how much I love all of you. It’s also the last day of games before the all-star break! I wish it was more than 3, but we are going to have to just work with what we got. It is going to be really, really important to try to understand where ownership is going to be and try to deviate. The lesson from the other day (when people didn’t play MIA/GS) should show you that, just because the game doesn’t look like it is the best doesn’t mean that we can’t find value or winning plays there. Just because a game SHOULD blow out, or SHOULD be close, doesn’t mean that it will. Pick the best plays, but try to ignore other noise. It can help you pay off on a day like this. Especially when everyone will think that there’s one game so much better than the others.

With a slate like this, I am going to go back to the game-by-game analysis that I did after the trade deadline. With how the games look, I don’t want to break it up the normal way. I’d rather dig deep and talk about some extra plays than I otherwise would.


Hornets vs Magic - TIP OFF: 700pm

Stats and Stuff

Line/Spread - 215, ORL -3

Hornets

Pace - 26th

Injuries - Monk OUT, Tony Parker DOUBTFUL, Graham PROBABLE

DvP Says: Weakest Against SF

Players in the top 50 in Usage: Kemba (8th)

Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: NONE

Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE

Magic

Pace - 21th

Injuries - Bamba OUT

DvP Says: Weakest Against PG

Players in the top 50 in Usage: Vuc (18th), Ross (46th)

Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Vuc (6th - C)

Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE


BREAKDOWN

Considering the other games’ lines and the paces of the other teams playing, this is the worst game on this small slate. Again, that doesn’t mean there aren’t some great plays here. First, Zeller (4800) is a competent defender, although nothing special. You can barely get more average than being 33rd out of 64 Centers. His presence, though, has turned the Hornets from a joke against Centers into a middle-of-the-road team. He had been on a minutes limit since he returned from the injury, but he was taken off the leash last game and given 35 minutes. I expect he will get that again in a matchup against the size of this Orlando front court. At that price, I absolutely love him, regardless of how tough of a defender Vuc is.


Speaking of Vuc (10000), he has finally reached 5 figures. I expect most people will look at the pace, look at the total, look at the minutes Zeller is getting, and then look at the game logs and go elsewhere. Vuc has only gotten 27, 29, and 26 minutes in his last 3 games but they ignore the fact that those games all blew out. If you take his 56.75, 42, and 47.25 DKP from those 3 games, you can see he is still putting up 2.1, 1.44, and 1.82 PPM. That averages to 1.79 PPM in those 3 games. If he gets that here, in his normal 35 minutes, he will get you 62.5 DKP. When I talked earlier about finding great plays that people won’t be on, it couldn’t be more relevant than now.


I think that it is also incredible relevant in regards to **Kemba (9200) as well. I have talked in the past in great detail about how Kemba is a different player with Zeller on the court. He just couldn’t get going with Biyombo or Hernangomez at the 5, and it ruined his production for weeks. Since Zeller has returned, Kemba has put up 60.25, 58.25, 53.75, and 54.25 DKP. Zeller is going to play a bunch of minutes. Orlando is weakest against PGs. Kemba is the only Hornets player in the top 100 in usage in this game, with Monk in the G-League and unavailable. Again, with all of the other games and expensive people out there, Kemba is going to largely overlooked, but Kemba/Vuc stacks could pay off really big tonight at very, very low ownership.


I can understand if you want to take a look at Gordon (6600) here, but I just think his price is too high for the production he’s been seeing lately. I understand his ceiling, but I also understand that Vuc is still going to eat. So is Fournier (5500). And, lately, we have to account for all the shots Isaac (5800) and Ross (5200) are taking . CHA is weakest against SF, as I noted earlier, so I, once again, love Isaac again. I recommended him as strongly as I could last game, and he put up his 2nd consecutive 36 DKP game. And that is with the limited blowout minutes I mentioned when discussing Vuc. I would expect he can do the same today with even more run. Ross only got 18 minutes due to the blowout and put up 9.25 DKP. He has shown that he can get you 40+ DKP in the close games and I expect him to do the same today if this game stays close. Fournier is someone I hate playing cause he is normally scoring dependent, but he has been doing well lately at getting the rebounds and assists. I am not a huge fan, but he is far too cheap for the easy 40 he can get you. As a normally scoring dependent guy, he is someone that can get you value just in raw points.


Another player I recommended last game was Briscoe (3500). I assume no one played him, though, cause no one thanked me for the tip. At 3200 he got 28 minutes and put up 29 DKP. I have said if he gets the run he can produce. He is not without risk, and I don’t like any punt whose price rises, but, on a 3 game slate, he could be a winner for you. He could also give you 4.5 DKP again. It’s a risk, but so is DFS. A punt that seems to always produce value for his price is Khem Birch (3300). Again, in a 3 game slate, we could do worse than someone guaranteed 15-20 minutes and who has put up 17.25, 16.25, 22.25, 15.75, 16.25, and 17 DKP his last 6 games (since Bamba has been out).


I also need to point out, again, that Monk is in the G-League and is out today. Tony Parker is Doubtful and probably won’t play. Graham is coming back off an illness, but he was barely getting minutes as it is. I expect this to give bumps to both Lamb (5700), who gets to line up against Fournier in a sweet matchup anyway, and Mack (3700) who should get a whole bunch of backup minutes today.


The last person I want to mention is Augustin (4400). His price has come down due to limited minutes from the recent blowouts, but he is still a starter who will get 30+ minutes if this game stays close. He has shown you he can get you more than 30 DKP in closer games, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they needed him to get his minutes tonight. He’s not someone I love tonight, but he is certainly cheap enough you have to consider him.


Knicks vs Hawks - TIP OFF: 730pm

Stats and Stuff

Line/Spread - 224, ATL -7

Knicks

Pace - 23th

Injuries - Mudiay QUESTIONABLE

DvP Says: They have a new starting lineup, so it doesn’t matter yet.

Players in the top 50 in Usage: DSJ (24th)

Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Jordan (3rd - C)

Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Knox (WORST SF)

Hawks

Pace - 5th

Injuries - Huerter PROBABLE, Adams PROBABLE

DvP Says: NBA WORST against SF, SECOND WORST against PG, also subpar against SG/PF

Players in the top 50 in Usage: Trae (24th)

Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Baze (3rd - SG), Huerter (10th - SG)

Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Trae (WORST NBA), Prince (4th WORST - SF), Collins (4th WORST - PF)


BREAKDOWN

Listen, I know Trae (8100) has been playing well lately. If you read my stuff every day, you know I have said, several times, it looks like he turned a corner. He is playing like a confident NBA player now, and it really is showing. The problem is this- they have no idea how the hell to price him on DK. Let’s go back over the last few games and look at his pricing: 6700, 6800, 6800, 6900, 7600, 7500, 7000, 7400, 6700, 6400. It’s normal to see someone jump a couple hundred in one day. What’s not normal is two jumps of 700, one 600 jump, 1 500 jump, and, to top if all off, a *1400 dollar jump for tonight's game over the course of 2 weeks. That is so out of this world ludicrous it’s hard to take DK’s algorithm seriously. That ALL BEING SAID, DSJ is a bad, bad defender and this is going to be a close game with a lot of points scored, and Trae has shown you he can get you 50+ DKP pretty easily. I don’t know if I can stomach what the ceiling of a 8100 player normally is compared to where I put Trae’s, but, at the same time, this is a 3 game slate and, like me, people are going to look at his price and refuse to pay it. A lot of things go wrong on small slates. You may be surprised, but it’s certainly possible Trae puts up 50 again and is on the winning roster cause of it. Don’t forget, Lin is no longer here and the only backup PG they have is Jaylen Adams (3000).


Collins (7700) has been playing inconsistently lately, to be kind. But he still gets 35 minutes in close games, is still a 2x2 threat every game, and, in this matchup, he gets to match up against Mario Hezonja so yes please. I will almost certainly not go there today, but in a 3 game slate, I can understand taking the risk when his ownership should be way, way too low for his ceiling.


Dedmon (5000) is too cheap if he gets you minutes, but too expensive for someone who isn’t in that good a matchup against Deandre Jordan.

While the Knicks aren’t as bad against the SF position lately from a DvP standpoint, Knox is still playing 30+ minutes, and he has been the worst defensive SF this season. I look at a too-cheap Prince (4700) who is getting 30 minutes again, and just put up 30 DKP, and lick my lips at someone priced low enough he will help me get some big names in, that no one is going to own (lucky for me, I don’t think my articles move the needle at all!). I also really like Huerter (4900) who is probable, and will get you 30 minutes and DKP himself.

I want to say that DSJ (6500) should be a straight lock here, since he going against the worst defender in the NBA. But a couple nights ago he got a matchup against the Cavs and Collin Sexton, who is the 2nd worst defender in the NBA and he only managed 28 DKP. I would put this closer to his floor, which isn’t bad for someone at 6500. I also think his lack of production last game has to do with the fact that Cleveland is terrible all over. Atlanta, however, is only terrible at 3 spots. One of those is DSJ’s, and I expect him to get closer to the 40 DKP end of his production spectrum.


The 2nd of Atlanta’s terrible spots is SF, which is manned by Knox (4900) who shoots more than Lou Reed in the 60s. His production has been really, really bad lately so I wouldn’t recommend playing him in cash, but anyone who gets 40 minutes and shoots the ball more than 20 times has to be seriously considered today. Especially in this matchup.

The 3rd and final of Atlanta’s terrible spots is PF. This is tougher to pinpoint, since Hezonja (3700) has been starting. However, he has poor PPM, and will get manhandled by Collins. Also he only gets, like, 18 minutes. I WOULD expect that they will have to rely more on Vonleh (4000), but they have decided to not really give him consistent minutes either. Kornet (3200) is also in the rotation here, after getting 28 minutes last night. The only bigs I am comfortable playing with all that in mind are Jordan (5900) who is still vastly underpriced, even for his limited minutes, and Robinson (4100) who is going to get 30 minutes every game, and produces like he was priced 6k. I expect him to be incredibly popular tonight, and for good reason. If he is not, I would play multiple entries just to get as much over the field on Robinson as I could. I love him that much here.


I have also pointed out Kadeem Allen (4200) the last couple games, and he has gotten 39.75 and 33 DKP. The Knicks are terrible and not trying to win. Stop trying to understand why they are giving certain people minutes and just close your eyes and give into it. We’re going to be there the rest of this entire season. Enjoy. Similarly, Dotson (3600) and Trier (3300) are both really underpriced for their minutes and role. Dotson played 30 minutes and shot the ball 16 times last night. Trier played 26 minutes and put up 19 real points.


Thunder vs Pelicans - TIP OFF: 800pm

Stats and Stuff

Line/Spread - 237, OKC -3.5

Thunder

Pace - 2nd

Injuries - Grant OUT, Schroder OUT

DvP Says: Weaker than average against PF, SG, and C

Players in the top 50 in Usage: Russ (14th), PG13 (15th)

Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: PG13 (1st - SF)

Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: NONE

Pelicans

Pace - 5th

Injuries - Elf QUESTIONABLE

DvP Says: NBA WORST against SF, SECOND WORST against PF, also subpar against C (This was without Brow, though who knows if he cares enough to try tonight)

Players in the top 50 in Usage: Brow (22nd), Julius (33rd), Jrue (41st)

Players in the top 10 at their position in DRPM: Brow (2nd - PF)

Players in the bottom 5 at their position in DRPM: Julius (WORST - C)


BREAKDOWN

Man, this looks like it is, by far, the best game on the slate. The Pelicans/Magic game from a couple days ago looked pretty damn good, too and look how that ended up (Spoiler Alert: It went so bad, Brow’s price dropped 1300). I expect the ownership in this game to be out of this world. And, if you look at everything, you could understand why. A total of almost 240 that is supposed to stay close? Two teams in the top 5 in pace? Superstars on both teams? It looks awesome, and I expect ownership to reflect that (again, more reason to look elsewhere in GPPs).


With Schroder and Grant out, the MSC Play of the Day and the first person I would lock in (and the only person I would lock in from this game) is PG13 (10700). As I alluded to, I am pretty sure this game is going to be over early, but the Thunder have shown that they will still give PG13 and Russ (11600) run into the mid-30s, even in blow out situations. For this reason, I love both of them today. But Westbrook is Westbrook no matter what. PG13 gets a ton of extra usage and run with those other 2 guys missing. He showed you that last game when he got 47p/12r/10a/2s and 88.5 DKP in 43 minutes. If you look above, you can see that the Pels are tied with the Hawks for worst team in the NBA against SF. This is where PG13 will spend the majority of his minutes tonight. I just can’t think of any reason, apart from blow out and 70% ownership, not to be all over PG tonight.


Russ is awesome and should get his 11th consecutive 3x2. I am pretty sure that, even if this game blows out, they will leave him in the game as long as he wants (which is long enough to get the 3x2). I don’t think he is going to be shooting as much, so I don’t think he has the 90 DKP upside he had before PG13 started going nuts, but I still think he’s safe for 70 DKP if everything goes right. Unfortunately, I think this upside is under PG13’s now, and he is 900 more expensive.


The only other player I want to mention on the Thunder is Deonte Burton (3600) who is filling the Schroder role here. He’s not someone we should normally consider (or even someone most of you have heard of), but he got 26 minutes last game, in a close game, and put up 25.5 DKP. I’m not saying he’s safe to get that again (especially considering he got 0 rebounds + assists and 3 blocks, plus shot 7-9, none of which are sustainable), but, again, “3 game slate” and “find value where you can” and “anyone who is getting that many minutes at that price has to be at least considered.”


There are a couple important questions on the Pelicans side. First, will Elf (5300) play? He was upgraded to Questionable yesterday, and apparently felt good enough he thought he might be able to play tonight. If he does, I would expect his minutes to be limited enough that he would not be someone to consider, while also removing the consideration we would have given to Frazier (3800) and F Jax (3500). If Elf misses, I still don’t really care for either of these guys, but I wouldn’t mind taking a chance on Frazier who is the best shot to get 30 minutes and put up enough stats to exceed value. Elf playing would also make it harder to play Jrue (8400). We have seen Jrue go back to the Jrue we see when the Pelicans are all healthy and Brow is on the floor. That Jrue should be priced closer to 7k.

The 2nd question is Does Brow (9000) care anymore? If you watched last game (or read about it), he played like someone just trying to run the clock out in more ways than one. If I told you before the season that Anthony Davis would be priced at 9000 and you wouldn’t be 100% on him, you would have thought I was crazy. But here we are. We know how good he is. We know what his ceiling is. But we also saw what he looks like when he doesn’t care. And that Davis let the Magic take a 22 point lead in the 1st quarter of their last game. If you think he comes out angry, I don’t know how you don’t take a chance here. Just don’t play Brow in cash. Please.


I really, really want to like Randle (7200) today, but I am having trouble getting there. With the Thunder weak on the front court with Grant out, Randle is going to match up a lot with Patterson, who is awful. However, I will advise some caution here (especially if Randle winds up as chalk). The Thunder staggered Russ and PG13 last game a lot more, with the 2nd unit having PG13. There, PG13 played PF and Noel played C and both have been exceptionally good defenders this season. Randle plays in the 2nd unit, but gets a lot of run with the 1st unit too. Like i said, it’s not all roses but it’s not all fertilizer either.


The final person I will mention is Kenrich (5400). Like I mentioned last game, they are going to give him 30+ minutes every game, no matter what. Well, last game blew out early and quick and he still got 31 minutes. Now, he only got 11.75 DKP since he shot 1-7, but, as I have said multiple times, you have to go where the minutes are, especially on a smaller slate like this. He has shown you he can get you 40 DKP with that time, and there’s no reason he can’t do that again. Especially if Brow is a shell of himself like he was last game.


Ok, that will be it for me for a week. I am going to be out of town with the wife trying to help and support her with some work stuff. It’s hard for me to travel, so this is going to be interesting, but I am keeping my spirits up! Luckily, I won’t really miss a lot of action (maybe one or two slates). Have a great day, a great week, and best of luck everyone. I love you all, and I can’t wait to get back next week and get writing again!! If you need anything, I will still be on twitter, and you can always send me a message here.