Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!
Yesterday In Review:
The Bathrobe vs. Pocket_Saand Head-To-Head Series:
He is Cash. I am GPP. Let’s keep track of how a daily head-to-head stacks up.
Well, unfortunately this was the last day of the challenge. I think I’ll just retire this section.
I lose in the best of 7 series. 296-266.75
Final Record 3-4
My Lineup- - This is the one lineup I enter into GPPs
Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff
Yogi | 3100 | 31.75 | 10.2x | 22.1%| 26.4%| 4.3
D. Rose | 6300 | 16.25 | 2.6x | 12.8%| 48.4%| 35.6!!!!!!!!
Bogdan | 5200 | 45.5 | 8.8x | 41.3%| 46.5%| 5.2
Harris | 8000 | 29.75 | 3.7x | 12.1%| 20.4%| 8.3
Jordan | 6400 | 50.5 | 7.9x | 33.7%| 39.2%| 5.5
Booker | 8300 | 25.75 | 3.1x | 34.1%| 27.1%| 7
Doncic | 8400 | 37.25 | 4.4x | 14.7%| 24.5%| 9.8
Bender | 4000 | 30 | 7.5x | 18.7%| 39.6%| 20.9!!!!
**Total** | 49700 | 266.75 | 5.367x| | |
Entry Fees: 36.75
Best Possible Lineup- - Using the free lineup rewind tool on fantasycruncher, I find the highest possible lineup that could have been played.
Name | Price | DKP
Lillard | 8100 | 60.75
Ferguson | 3700 | 26.5
PG13 | 9700 | 64
Josh Jackson | 4100 | 52
Jordan | 6400 | 50.5
Jerryd Bayless | 3000 | 35.5
Okogie | 4200 | 35.75
KAT | 10600 | 65.5
**Total** | 49800 | 390.5
Analysis-
I’m sure I’m not alone in this, but I fucking hate slates that shape up like this. Random injury news. Waiting until after lock for final word on important pieces. Trying to figure out how limited some people are going to be cause it’s not explicitly stated anywhere. So I picked the lineup that tried to spread out the highest usage people across the 2 games I liked the best. First, I had to decide who I was going to lock in from TOR/SAC, with Kawhi and Fox and Bjelica, etc, out. I decided on Yogi and Bogdan. I was going to lock in CJ Miles who was one of my favorite value plays today, but I wanted to give myself as much lineup flexibility as I could get. Then the news started coming in. LouWill would play. I had a lot of interest in him, so I dumped Tobias and moved onto LouWill based lineups. Then he was announced as limited so I went back to Harris. Jordan was my favorite play of the day, and I was hoping DSJ wouldn’t interfere with Doncic too much (oh well). With Teague out, I decided to take a risk- since they didn’t have Tyus Jones, I figured they’d give Rose a huge run tonight. Since he has the highest usage of anyone on the Wolves, I thought this would be a perfect smash spot for him. I decided that I wanted to take the risk he ate up enough usage to make KAT not worth it, so I faded him to try to get separation from the field (on a night everyone seemed chalky). I ran Rose back with Booker (who got ejected in the 3rd quarter. Swell.) and Bender, whose height would be needed against KAT tonight.
The Daily Slate:
Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day
Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here
The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down.
In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors.
Vucevic - While I often say the first thing you should do when you see a slate is check if the Nets are playing and then lock in the Center going against them, that has to be somewhat modified now. The first thing you should do is look to see if the Clippers are playing, and, if they are, check if the Center going against them is viable. In this case, they are going against the Heat, so we move back to the 2nd best option: Whoever is going against the Nets. In this case, it just so happens to be one of the best Centers in the NBA. Vuc (9300) may not be in the elite tier of Centers, but he’s on the next wrung down, both in terms of production and ceiling. And this is just too good a matchup to pass up. Five days ago, in the same matchup, I listed Vuc as my MSC play of the day. He was priced 9400. I talked about how he is, by far, the leader in Usage on this Magic team. How no one on the Nets could even come close to stopping him. Well, he had a real off day shooting, going only 7-20 from the field, but still put up 16p/17r/6a/1b en route to 50.25 DKP. While Gordon was a full participant in yesterday’s practice, I also have to acknowledge that back issues are tricky and, while I expect Gordon to get his full complement of minutes, I think any injury to Gordon that could limit him in any way whatsoever is about as huge a boon to Vuc as can be, especially in this matchup. As I often say, there are a lot of people in some great spots tonight. But gimme Vuc first, the 60 DKP he should get tonight, and I’ll build around that.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Raptors without Kawhi (and OG) - When Kawhi is in the game, he dominates everything. When he is out, if people aren’t priced up enough, it is really a free for all of underpriced people. While this isn’t exactly the best matchup against the good D of the Pacers, the pricing makes it irrelevant. My order of interest is Lowry (7200), FVV (4600), Siakam (6200) (against IND’s weakest position), Ibaka (5900), Wright (3800), Powell (3700), and CJ MIles (3300). There’s a lot of good players in great spots on this slate, so pick the spots that you like best!
Myles Turner - Since the value is everywhere on Toronto, I didn’t note that this game is very important for both teams. The Raptors are 3.5 games up on the Pacers, and IND would love to leave this game down 2.5 instead of 4.5. One of the best ways to attack the Raptors is at Center. So even though Oladipo (7700) is getting too cheap, I have a hard time taking a slumping player who will be seeing the D of Danny Green. I like Bojan (5200) who gets to nothave to face Kawhi. But my favorite is Turner (6600). He will get more than 30 minutes in close games and, like I said, this one means a lot to the Pacers so I expect them to play their full minutes. Even though he put up 38 DKP in only 30 minutes in a blowout against the Hornets, his price fell 200 from last game. In fact, the Pacers haven’t had a non-blow out since Turner returned from his injury. This is gonna be good time for Turner to remind us all just how good he can be.
D’Angelo Russell - If you are playing Vuc, like me, you may like the strategy of running the player back with someone. While 5 days ago I recommended Joe Harris (4900) due to the weaknesses the Magic have against perimeter shooting, it was Russell (8000) who took 12 3s that game, en route to 40 real points and 58.5 DKP. In fact, in 3 of their last 4 games, Russell has put up 14, 12, and 13 3 pointers and amassed 55.5, 58.5, and 55.75 DKP. After that last 55.5 DKP performance, his price fell 300 for some reason. He is hot, he has shown he can take advantage of this matchup, and he is, by far, the Nets leader in usage. Playing him never comes without risk, but that’s what a GPP is for, innit?
Bam Adebayo - This is a GPP play here, but it’s based on being in an amazing spot. First of all, if you’ve been reading the articles lately, you know just how staggeringly bad the Clippers have been against Centers over the last month. By far, the worst in the NBA. I would read my analysis from yesterday about it. Go ahead, I’ll wait. Ok, welcome back. Crazy right? Well something changed since yesterday- 1 day has passed and now the Clippers have jumped past the Cavs and are worst against PF and C. This means whoever gets “big man” run is going to go off today. While I would love that to be Whiteside (6000), he has only exceeded 20 minutes 2 of his last 4 games. This means that Bam (4600) who is in just as good a spot (if not better since he’ll be against backups), at less ownership, may play more minutes than Whiteside against the James Harden’s Usage of Bad Center Defenses. I’ll take it, especially with the PF eligibility on DK.
Kanter - With Kornet out tonight, Kanter (5000) is expected to get some major minutes against a Rockets team that is so bad against Centers since Capela went down, they make the Clippers look like the Harlem Globetrotters playing the Generals. I wouldn’t be shocked if he puts up 10x here. Seriously. I am going to stop now to emphasize the point. Play Kanter tonight.
Rockets - For some reason, the Rockets are only projected to win this game by 7. This makes me really interested in a couple people on this team. First, Harden (13400) obviously. If he gets a full run against this Knicks squad, he can get you 100 DKP tonight. Second, is Eric Gordon (5700). While I am really worried he is still nursing a serious injury, he is still the #2 option on this team. What’s more, the Knicks are to SF what the Clippers are to PF and C- League Worst. On top of that, Knox is the worst starting SF in the NBA defensively. When everything lines up like that, it means I want me some Gordon. Faried (4400) has seen a 1400 price increase, removing his must play status. With the Rockets willing to play Tucker at Center for some reason, I will wait and see how Faried will perform today before I decide if I want to play him at a price where he needs 22 DKP to pay off.
Hawks vs Bulls - In a game between the 4th paced Hawks and the 28th paced Bulls, featuring 2 teams awful at D, and a total of 221.5 with a close spread of CHI -2, the pricing is pretty broken. The only player over 7000 on either team is Collins (7900), who could easily put up 50 DKP tonight in this spot. Then you go down 1000 to LaVine (6900). I have talked about how the Clippers are Worst in the NBA against PF and C, and how the Knicks are worst against SF. Well, the Hawks are worst in the NBA against both PG and SG. LaVine hasn’t seen quite the same usage as he did earlier in the season, but he’s still putting up close to 20 shots a game. If he gets hot, he could easily exceed that and put up 40 real points tonight. This also means that Dunn (6300) would be in a great spot. I would love Portis (5800), Markkanen (6600), Parker (4200), and RoLo (3800) but I can’t trust that any of them are going to get the minutes they need to be interesting. As great a spot as Collins is in, Dedmon (5600) is going against the Bulls primary weakness post Carter, Centers. He has shown the ability to get over 40 DKP against Embiid 3 games ago. I think he could show you the ability to get to 50 DKP tonight. Again, as much as I like Collins, I love Dedmon more. If Dedmon is chalk for some reason, I have no problem pivoting to Len (4500) although you would know the risk that would come with. Huerter (5500) is questionable for tomorrow. If he plays, he is a little too expensive for me. If he misses, I will be all over Lin (4200) (unless they announce Prince (4900) is starting and his minutes restriction is lifted.) Hutchinson (3800) has been producing like someone priced over 4k lately, and getting 30ish minutes a game. While he’s not the safest play, and his ceiling isn’t that great, and there are other, better plays in his price range, you can go there if you wanna be really contrarian.
Jokic - As we saw the other day in the matchup Utah had against Nurkic, I explained how, even though Gobert is the 2nd best defensive Center in the NBA, the Jazz are, as a whole, weakest against Centers, and worse than league average in terms of points surrendered per game to the position. While this brought down Nurkic’s ownership and he still put up almost 50 DKP, I doubt that people will see Jokic (9800) under 10k and not jump on it no matter what. This is a massive pace up spot for the Nuggets, as well. If you are going to go anywhere near this game, and I suggest you do, Jokic is easily one of the best plays on the slate. If you ever see him under 10k you should be ready to lock him in. Even if Gobert proves a staunch defender, and he will, Jokic will just get 15 assists. It just makes his triple-double bonus that much easier to get. He has one of the highest ceilings in the NBA and he’s under 10k. I mean, the situation speaks for itself.
Donovan - While Rubio came back last game, he was severely limited and only played 14 minutes. While I expect that to increase, I don’t expect it to push much higher than 20. And Exum and Neto are still out. Which means, again, Donovan (8500) is going to be in a position to both do a good chunk of ball handling and shoot the ball 20+ times. He also lines up against a weakness in the Nuggets D (unless Harris is somehow starting with no minutes limit). His price was 9200 a few days ago and, given he just dropped 53.25 DKP against Portland, I think they overcorrected.
Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):
Celtics vs Cavs - So I like to look at Vegas lines because, while I often have my own opinion, they are the professionals in terms of predicting scores and everything. So I saw the CLE/BOS game open at 216 with BOS -17.5. Yes you read that right. Seventeen and a half. Then they announced the Horford would be out for rest purposes this game. Vegas reacted by saying “oh shit! Without Horford, the Cavs are certainly going to be able to make this game closer!” and they shifted the spread alllllll the way to -16.5. This game is going to be an annihilation. If you don’t care about that, Kyrie (9400) has been on fire lately, and he’s one of the best plays on the slate, ignoring blow out risk. If you DO care about blow out risk, Zizic (6000) should get 30 minutes, no matter what. Most of those will be against 3rd stringers. They still only really have Frye to back him up. Morris (5000) should draw the start at PF for Horford. He would probably see some blow out run anyway so he is a fine play against the 2nd worst team in the NBA against PFs. This goes for anyone who would get any run when this game ends early. So, specifically, Jaylen Brown (4300), Rozier (4000), Cam Payne (3700), and Theis (3100).
Hornets - They don’t price down people going against the Grizzlies, so I really have no interest. They are slow. They are defensive. The total is the lowest on the slate (as of right now). There’s just 9 other games full of people to choose from, and I would do that. If you want to be stubborn about it, Kemba (8100) is going against Memphis’ weakest link, and he will still get a majority of the shots. I don’t like him with Zeller out, but you do you.
Situations to monitor:
LouWill Status - While there are no reports that LouWill will miss this game, I have to wonder. He only got 23 minutes, and he looked like the hamstring wasn’t 100% (or he was just worried about pushing himself). While he was supposed to be limited, it is still concerning. Additionally, while I normally don’t put a lot of importance on back-to-backs, the Clippers are going to be flying from Dallas to Miami after a hard fought loss. They had initially expected LouWill to miss yesterday’s game and play tonight. So there’s no reason to push him and aggravate the injury. If he plays, I don’t think I will have interest given how he looked yesterday. It seems that PatBev (5000) has jumped past SGA (4500) and he’s performing like someone that should have done that long ago. Bradley (3900) is a great play regardless, but, like PatBev, would be phenomenal if Lou was out. I am on the “don’t play Montrezl (6700)if he’s not playing with LouWill and, even though he got the start tonight and played 31 minutes, very few of them were with Lou and he only wound up putting up 11p/8r/3a/1b. Harris (7800) who let a lot of people down last night cough would be in a fantastic spot again if Lou misses and Gallo still out, and I would lock him in.
Simmons and Butler QUESTIONABLE - The good news is Embiid (10500) has been removed from the injury report, so he may be over the muscle soreness that comes and goes. The bad news is Simmons (8700) and Butler (7300) are both questionable- Simmons with an illness and Butler with the same wrist issue that cost him last game. I would have interest in Embiid regardless, but if both of these guys are out, Embiid would immediately jump to my play of the day today. Butler is priced up a little too much to want to play him off a wrist injury. Simmons can produce across the board, and, if Butler is forced to miss again, he would be in line for extra production. If both miss, apart from locking in Embiid, I will also lock in McConnell (3900) and Brewer (3500) (who outperformed Faried the other night, but only saw a 500 price increase) as punts of the day, and Redick (5500) who would be far underpriced for the load that will be on his shoulders. This also affects the Spurs as well. If Butler is out, I would be much more willing to play DeRozan (7600) who would be priced fairly for Butler’s D, but really cheap if he’s seeing a Brewer or Korkmaz. LMA (8300) is in a great spot, regardless. He’s expensive, and it’ll mean not taking some other really great people, so I expect his ownership to be really low. Rudy Gay (5700), though, is in the best spot at the best price. If you want to play anyone from SA, Gay would be a great first choice before looking at the more expensive guys.
Gasol QUESTIONABLE/Noah OUT - If Gasol (7500) plays (he did play 35 minutes last game) he would be the best play on the Grizzlies by leaps and bounds. If he misses, you know you gotta lock my man Ivan Rabb (3100) in there again. All day.
Drummond QUESTIONABLE - Drummond was unable to practice yesterday since he was still in the concussion protocol. The thing about that is, once you are cleared, you can play. So if, at 7pm, they do the test and he passes, he can suit up tonight. If they declare him out early, it would be great cause we could plan it out. But this game doesn’t tip off until 8pm so we may not know until after lock. If Drummond (8800) plays, he will either see the D of Okafor or NBA worst PF in DRPM, Julius Randle. If Drummond misses, Blake (9700) would once again be the play of the day. Just like Drummond, he is going to see the D of 2 terrible defenders. They won’t be able to stop him. I would have interest in him even if Drummond plays, but he is a lock if Andre misses. This also affects the Pelicans. First, post-Brow, Holiday (8600) will always command enough usage to be worth considering at that price. Especially when he should be going against a weakness of Detroit. The person not just going against a weakness but the weakness of DET is Randle (8400). My favorite play, though, is probably Mirotic (7000) who has the same upside as Holiday and Randle, but will save you about 1500 and probably a bunch of ownership. While I’m not sure if it lasts, they will need the height of Okafor (4600) again tonight, and, if he gets another 35 minutes, he could easily get you another 40 DKP.
That’s it for now. I hope you enjoy my little article of all the links you could need. I got some great new tips to add and I hope to do so tomorrow! I should also be able to do a Good Chalk/Bad Chalk this afternoon, so I will see you then. If not, best of luck!!