Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!
Yesterday In Review:
My Lineup- - This is the one lineup I enter into GPPs
Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff
Rozier | 4000 | 48 | 12x | 53%| 71.7%| 18.7!!!
J. Brown | 4300 | 33 | 7.7x | 19.4%| 21.3%| 1.9
Brewer | 3500 | 17.25 | 4.9x | 7.1%| 11%| 3.9
Randle | 8400 | 34.25 | 4.1x | 23.8%| 27%| 3.2
Vucevic | 9300 | 58 | 6.2x | 19.4%| 18%| 1.4
Joe Harris | 4900 | 22.5 | 4.6x | 3%| 2.3%| 0.7
Vonleh | 5800 | 32 | 5.5x | 1%| 3%| 2
Blake Griffin | 9700 | 64.25 | 6.6x | 8.1%| 14.1%| 6
**Total** | 49900 | 309.25 | 6.197x| | |
Analysis-
I got 309.25 without James Harden and I wasn’t anywhere NEAR cashing. What a fucking insane slate this was. I mean, my god. I don’t even have words to describe just how fucking insane that was. I had a lineup with Harden until Drummond was declared out, then I changed it all around to keep Vuc and Blake (both who crushed it). I also wanted Randle to run back Blake, since I thought he’d have a much easier time with Drummond out (and much more usage with AD out). I knew everyone was on Kanter, so I wanted to get Vonleh in there, who has quietly been a great defender this year, and they would need. I talked about him today in my good chalk/bad chalk as a pivot from the chalk in Kanter and he stayed way, way too underowned and got me value. I next locked in Brown who I love with Kyrie out, and when games blow out. And both of those things happened yesterday! This gave me 3 slots left. I decided to lock in Brewer when Jimmy Butler was listed as out. And then I begrudgingly ate the chalk and locked Rozier in, who I just couldn’t see failing against the Cavs, 60+% ownership be damned. This left me 1 slot and 5k. I had to choose between a few people, but thought Joe Harris would have incredibly low ownership, and would be paired up with Fournier who he could get a few extra 3s against.
The Daily Slate:
Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day
Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here
The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down.
In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors.
KAT (10200) - Like the team they share the Staples Center with, the Lakers are terrible defensively against Centers. The Lakers are 1st in pace over the last 15 games, meaning the Wolves are in as good a pace up matchup for them as possible. This game has a spectacular 229 O/U with the closest spread on the night, with MIN -1.5 road favorites. Over the last 15 games, KAT is 22nd in the NBA in usage, by far leading the Wolves. On top of that, RoCo is still out and Teague is questionable, meaning KAT’s usage should remain in the same spot. Honestly, though, as much as I love KAT tonight, if Lillard AND/OR Richaun Holmes is out, Nurkic would immediately jump to my play of the day. I am hoping enough value opens up that I can play KAT, Russ, and Nurkic, cause those 3 are, by far, the best plays on the slate (barring injury news).
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Durant - As you know if you read this every day, there are very few “narrative” things I pay any mind to. Most of the time, it’s people trying to spin a story out of nothing to justify doing something they wanted to do anyway. Well, if you read this article a lot, you also know I hate to recommend playing anyone on the Warriors for a bunch of reasons. But this game is different. Durant (9000) is from the DC area and always loves coming back home to play. But, the big thing is that This is the first time Durant has come home in almost a year and, on this trip home, he is opening the Durant Center, to which Durant has pledged 10 million dollars over the next decade, in order to help kids from around his neighborhood get through school and go to college (this years class is almost 70 kids). Durant was even allowed to miss practice last night in order to attend the opening. We all know the Warriors cannibalize each other. That’s why they are all cooks. But, when someone gets hot, they don’t mind giving it up and letting that person get the majority of run. I expect that tomorrow will be one of those games where everyone tries to let Durant have a big game. Even if you don’t care about any of that, or the fact Durant likes paying in DC, he is still in a fantastic spot. Ariza and Green, who will be the starting forwards, are 2 of the worst defenders in the NBA. Not that the Wizards are good anywhere, but they are particularly bad at defending 3s (a boost to basically this entire team) and no one they have in the starting rotation will be able to match up with Durant. I know Klay (6400) has been hot and Curry (9100) can just as easily be the one to start sinking 3s and it could go off the rails for Durant owners tomorrow. Or Vegas can be wrong and the GS -9 spread is as laughable against this awful Washington as it looks, and GS blows them out by the half, meaning you want a ton of Looney (4200) and Iguodala (3800). Additionally, Jerebko will miss this game, which should open up some extra run for both Durant and McKinnie (3300) (if you are desperate).
Westbrook and Co - You know what NO is really weak against? Yeah, that’s right. Point Guards. And you know whose price has fallen under 11k for the first time in a really long time? Yeah, Russ (10700). I understand this game carries risk. Although the total of 237 is awesome, the OKC -11.5 is concerning. Sure, PG13 (9700) has been taking a lot of usage from Russ. But this is a better matchup, and, at this point, their prices are close enough the edge goes back to Russ. When I saw him at 10700 in a matchup against the Pelicans, I had to do a double take. Adams (6600) would also be in a great spot against either Okafor or Randle, neither of which will be able to get the upper hand on him tonight. This is a game between the 2nd and 9th fastest teams over the last couple weeks. If you are worried about the blowout, I understand not going there. But if you think the Pelicans can keep this one close, it could be the game that breaks the slate for everyone else.
Pelicans - When I initially looked this over, I was going to just straight up recommend Jrue (8200). OKC was weakest against SG/SF, after all. But then I got to thinking about defensive matchups. Russ will be guarding Elf, which is bad for Elf (5400). PG13 would be guarding Jrue, which means I would have a lot less interest in him. With Adams on Okafor (4900), he is also in a tough defensive spot, but his minutes and his recent production prove 4900 to be too cheap. The one place they should be able to attack from is the PF slot here, meaning Randle (7800), fresh off disappointing people, will get my recommendation for tonight and have a great chance to do it again. Jerami Grant is a good defender, don’t get me wrong, but he is going to be the weakest link in the chain, and someone they are going to attack repeatedly (while E’Twaun Moore and Ferguson will battle each other for who is the most irrelevant 5th man tonight).
Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):
Wizards getting blown out - I’m sorry, I just can’t believe that the all-star team masquerading as the Warriors, who’s biggest team strength is Washington’s biggest weakness (perimeter shooting), who have blown out both games since Cousins has come back (against 2 better teams than the Wizards), who are the #1 seed in the West going against the 20-26 Wizards, who have won 8 in a row and 9 of their last 10... That they won’t hand a Wizards team with a starting 5 of Satoransky/Beal/Ariza/Green/Bryant their asses tonight. While I expect them to let Durant get somewhat of a full run regardless, I will have a hard paying up for any of the other Warriors stars or Beal (8900) in this situation. Ariza (5900), Bryant (5500), and Sato (5400) are cheap enough that they are still all fine plays, regardless of the risk. I think they are going to need Bryant’s height today, so I particularly like him tonight.
Situations to monitor:
Lillard is Questionable, Richaun Holmes is Questionable - This is going to be one of my favorite games tonight. Over the course of the last few weeks, the Phoenix Suns have been the second worst team against Centers. Then DeAndre Ayton and Richaun Holmes went down on the same day. True, Ayton is not a great defender (understatement), but what the Suns really lost is height. With Ayton and Holmes out, the only person over 6’8” left on the roster is Dragan Bender. This meant that KAT was able to go to Town(s) the last couple games. And, with Ayton very unlikely to play tomorrow according to the Suns’ coach (and Holmes still questionable), it means Nurkic (8000) may be able to join him. For most of the season, the only 2 Blazers players anywhere near the top 50 in the NBA in usage have been Lillard and CJ. But around the time Nurkic put up his astonishing 20/20 5x5, he clearly took over as the #2 option. Lillard is still the leader on this team, by far, but CJ has almost fallen out of the top 50 and, over the course of the last couple weeks of games, Nurkic is 39th overall in the NBA. Also over the last couple of weeks, the Blazers are 17th in pace and the Suns are 7th, meaning Nurkic will be in a nice pace up spot today as well. The one thing that could swing this from me thinking Nurkic is the best play today to me knowing he is the best are the statuses of Lillard and Holmes. Right now, this is the only game that doesn’t have an O/U or spread, as we await the news about Lillard who is questionable, Ayton who is doubtful, and Holmes who is Questionable. If Lillard misses, Nurkic should be locked into your lineups tomorrow. Even if Lillard plays, though, I like Nurkic a ton. What will determine if Nurkic is the play of the day or just a great play (if Lillard plays) is the status of Holmes (4100). While Holmes is not a world-beater, he is a decent defender, and he is 6’10”. If Holmes OR Lillard misses, Nurkic is, easily, the play of the day today. If both are out, lock him in to maximum exposure immediately. If Holmes (4100) plays without limit, I will also have a ton of interest in him. If Holmes is out, the only player the Suns will have that can match up with Nurkic (height-wise) is, once again, Bender (4600), who’s price is coming up but not enough yet. Similarly, if Lillard (8400) plays, he is a fantastic play against the Suns’ guard defense. If he misses, apart from locking Nurkic in, you kind of have to take a chance on CJ (6300) as hard as it is to trust him. One of the main beneficiaries would be Seth Curry (3200) who would probably be the punt of the day today. Unfortunately, this game goes off an hour after lock, so we may not know anything for sure until after. To summarize, I love Nurkic so much today, even if everyone plays. If either Lillard or Holmes misses, Nurkic is the play of the day. If both Lillard and Holmes miss, Nurkic is someone you should play at the expense of whoever else you need to sacrifice. I will also add that TJ Warren is OUT meaning that Booker (7500) is a great play to run back. He is so damn cheap now due to the fact he got his ass ejected last game. But still, an 800 price drop is staggering for someone who loves nothing more than to shoot the ball, and will get so much run with Warren and Ayton out. Plus, he will be lined up against CJ who is one of the worst SG defenders in the NBA. With Warren out, Oubre (5700) is also a smash play tonight. I’m telling you, I love this game. I’m going to have Nurkic and a few Suns, at the very least. I can’t wait until we find out who is in and who is out.
Teague QUESTIONABLE - While he let us all down last time, I will go right back to Rose (6500) if Teague is out. His usage is normally off the charts, and, until it happens more than once, I have to chalk it up to an aberration. It would also make KAT even better, and put a too-cheap Wiggins (5600) into play. You can chase points with Bayless (3600) if you want, but I would much rather take Okogie (4400) if taking a cheap Wolf guard.
Rondo QUESTIONABLE - He came out today and said that, since his injury was his hand and not his lower body, he has stayed in game shape and, thus, Rondo (5200) expects to have no minutes limit if he can play tonight. While this gives a huge blow to the potentials of Ingram (6200), Hart (4600) and Stephenson (4100), if he is cleared, I will start every lineup I make tomorrow with Rondo. I also think this would help Kuzma (6900) as well, and I would love nothing more than to play Rondo/Kuzma and KAT tomorrow.
It’s gonna be tough to fit everyone I like in tonight, and there doesn’t seem to be an overwhelming amount of value yet (news pending), this is still shaping up to be a really fun slate!! Hopefully this isn’t another slate where people get 320 DKP and don’t hit the cash line.