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bathrobeDFS - Daily Analysis for January 27th and Review of January 26th


Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!


Yesterday In Review:


My Lineup- -

Name | Price | DKP

Collison | 5600 | 36

Seth Curry | 3300 | 36.25

Brewer | 3800 | 38.5

Bolden | 4100 | 6.75

Jokic | 10700 | 76.5

Kyrie | 9300 | 60

Simmons | 9600 | 40

Monte Morris | 3600 | 15.25

**Total** | 50000 | 309.25


***My Top Lineup-***

Name | Price | DKP

Collison | 5600 | 36

Seth Curry | 3300 | 36.25

Hayward | 4900 | 19.25

Bruno Caboclo | 3000 | 25

Jokic | 10700 | 76.5

Kyrie | 9300 | 60

Barton | 6500 | 23

CJ | 6600 | 61.5

**Total** | 49900 | 337.50


Best Possible Lineup- - Using the free lineup rewind tool on fantasycruncher, I find the highest possible lineup that could have been played.

Name | Price | DKP

Kyrie | 9300 | 60

Seth Curry | 3300 | 36.25

Brewer | 3800 | 38.5

Horford | 5700 | 48.75

Jokic | 10700 | 76.5

Trae Young | 6400 | 48

Mason Plumlee | 3900 | 32

CJ | 6600 | 61.5

**Total** | 49700 | 401.5


A Personal Note from bathrobeDFS

That day is still permanently etched into my memory. It was towards the end of July, a little over a decade ago. I was in my mid-20s. After finding the love of my life, someone I’ve talked about before, we moved to a new state so I could help support her while she went to veterinary school. Right after I left, a really rough stretch started for my family. My Uncle, who was as close to me as a father, got diagnosed with cancer. A few months later, my father was diagnosed with cancer. And a couple months later my Aunt got cancer, too. The doctors tried their best with all 3, as they always do. But they caught it late for my Uncle. My Aunt was already sick. And, even though they found the Cancer in my dad’s back, they couldn’t identify it, meaning they couldn’t treat it correctly. With all the problems they were having finding the right treatment, he was given until the end of that year.


So, that day in July, my wife and I left the mid-Atlantic and headed up to Vermont. Two of our friends were getting married and my wife was going to be in the Wedding Party. This was something we had been looking forward to for a long time. We were going to stay there for a few days, then head down to NY and spend a week with my family. Not only did we want to spend as much time as possible with my dad, but my Mom’s birthday was later that week. We had been looking forward to this wedding for over a year. A bunch of friends rented a house and were all going to celebrate for a few days together. With my wife forehead deep in Vet School, she really needed it. After a drive that took us forever, we pulled up to the house, unpacked the car, and I went to go sit down on the couch to relax. I pulled out my primitive smartphone to pass some time while I waited for the rest of the couples to get there, and I saw I didn’t have service. It didn’t matter, though. We were there to party, after all. My wife and the other women went to town and me and the guys stayed back and caught up.


About thirty minutes later, my wife walked in, phone in hand, white as a sheet, eyes puffy. This is a woman I knew with my soul, so when I looked at her face I knew. “No.” I refused to accept it immediately.

“I’m sorry, love. Your mom said she tried to call you but it went right to voicemail...” She could barely get those words out.

“No!” I almost shouted it this time.

“I’m sorry. I don’t know what to say.” I could see the tears starting to fill her eyes from across the room.

“He was supposed to have months!. Months!!! How could this happen just like that!?”

“I don’t know, sweetie”

At that point, I pretty much went catatonic for a little while while everyone tried to comfort me. There’s nothing anyone can say or do at that point, though. So we packed up what little we unpacked, and, fresh off a 7 hour drive, got back in the car and embarked on another 6 hour journey. My wife offered to drive, but I knew that sitting in the passenger’s seat, thinking for hours, would be torture so I drove the whole way trying to focus everything I could on the road ahead. Until we crossed the George Washington Bridge. At that point the memories starting flooding in and I had to use all the strength I could to get to my boyhood home.

The funeral was awful, as funerals are. As I’ve said in the past, I was a national debate champion. So I just zoned out when I gave my dad’s eulogy. People started crying telling me how moving it was. I can’t remember a word. I’m kind of glad for that. People flew in from across the country to pay respects, and I can’t remember much of that either. One of the only things I remember was the conspicuous absence of my Uncle and Aunt. They were both too sick to leave bed at that point. Even at what my dad would have demanded be a joyful celebration of his life, we all knew what was around the corner. Well, a couple days after the funeral, my Uncle passed. And after another couple weeks my Aunt was gone too. I was 25. And I had to go the rest of my life without a couple of the most significant people in my life.

On his posthumous election to the MLB Hall of Fame, Roy Halladay’s widow, Brandy, had a 20 minute session with the media to answer questions about Roy, what team’s logo would be on his plaque, how he would have felt about everything, and what the family thinks about it in his absence. At the end, one of the reporters asked her if time heals all wounds. Understandably, this caused her to start crying.


“I don’t think time heals wounds,” she said. “I think time gives you an opportunity to learn how to live with your new surroundings, your new circumstances. So you don’t ever heal. You don’t ever forget somebody. You don’t ever get over something. You just learn how to deal with it in a new way.”


I have lived that truth every day of my life, from that hot July day over a decade ago until right now as my 40th birthday approaches. As much as I try, not a day goes by when the knot in my gut doesn’t form as I think about the role models my son was robbed of. Not a night goes by where the demons don’t try to creep in. I was a 25 year old kid, very much still trying to figure things out, just getting out into the world, in need of the people I needed most. Then they were gone.

After the pneumonia, my sister-in-law went downhill quickly. First, she couldn’t swallow. Then she couldn’t talk. Then the pain came. My wife went last weekend and had a nice visit with her. She shared some pictures of their adventures together, While my sister in law couldn’t talk, she could still communicate and my wife told me how happy she was that my sister-in-law was still responsive. By the next day that had changed. A couple days ago, when the pain got to be too much, they gave her the medicine to make her unconscious and, today, at 330pm, her breathing slowly softened to nothing.


As much as I am going to miss her, I can’t help but think about her two young boys. The oldest is 8 and the youngest is only 4. As much as I feel robbed of decades of time with my dad, they were robbed of everything. They had one of the most genuinely amazing people I’ve ever met as their mother, and they will only know her through fleeting memories and stories we tell them. As painful as it is to know she’s gone, my heart is shattered into a million pieces thinking about my two little nephews, her parents having to bury their child, and my brother-in-law, another one of the most amazing people I’ve ever met, becoming a widower and single father.

Because it happened so quickly, I have to carry with me the fact that I never got to say goodbye to my dad. I wasn’t there to hold his hand, or look in his eyes. I didn’t get to tell him how much I loved him one last time, how much I still needed him, and how I would always carry the love he had for me in his heart. I didn’t get to tell him that my girlfriend at the time was about to be my fiance. I didn’t get to hear his voice one last time tell me whatever it was he had to say. I know he knew all that. And I know he loved me as much as anyone could love anything. But not getting that closure is just something that never stops weighing on you.


So, I want you all to do me a favor today. At some point, pick up your phone - not a text - and call the people you love. Cause tonight everything can change and tomorrow they could be gone. Make sure you let them know how lucky you are to have them. Let them know how much they mean to you. And tell them, forcefully and emphatically, that you love them. Yell it if you have to. Make sure when you are done talking, the sound of your voice expressing your love resonates in their ear drums for hours and days.


Because, right now, there are two little boys whose mom told them she loved them every night, with a kiss on the forehead as she tucked them into bed. And I don’t think either of them will be able to remember a single one.

Appreciate the people in your life, folks. Please.

Please.

I will make this brief cause I don’t want to spend any more time in this section. I locked in Jokic, Simmons, Kyrie and Collison and then picked all that sweet punt action. Nothing fancy. I was barely holding on. I also decided to do the 20 lineups in the $1 again to see how it would go 2 days in a row (especially on an appreciably smaller slate). If you were following me on Twitter, you know I kept telling people to play Bruno Caboclo today. I was the only person anywhere (and I mean anywhere) that even mentioned him, much less telling you to play him. He was 0.1% owned. And that is rounding up.


The Daily Slate:

This is going to be a shell of an article. I won’t go into the depth in terms of how I explain everything, even though I did all the legwork. My picks aren’t less informed, I will just type less.


Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day

Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down. In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors.


Rajon Rondo - Lebron is still out. The two fastest teams on the slate going against each other. Suns D is awful. Lebron will still be out. Kuzma is Questionable and may miss. He will get 30+ minutes, have a good shot at a triple double, and his price hasn’t spiked up high enough. If I did MME tonight, I would have 100% Rondo.


Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):


· Kawhi - In this game he should command usage, and has the ability to take some extra 3s against a bad Mavs perimeter D. Danny Green is Questionable which would provide a nice boost to Kawhi. Kawhi is also the only Raptor in the top 50 in usage. 220 O/U is nice, with a great -3.5 spread.


· Doncic and DSJ - While both will be going against solid defenders, both are underpriced for the minutes and production they should see. If this stays close, these are the two guys who are going to do most of the work to keep it that way.


· Vuc - The Rockets are so bad at Center with Capela out. That’s not a set up for a joke, they are just terrible. While this game has a HOU -9 spread, I think it will stay closer. The reason I think it will stay closer is that no one on the Rockets can deal with Vuc, and he could put up 70+ DKP tonight


· KAT - A couple of days ago I talked about how the Jazz are far above average against every position. However, even though Gobert is great defensively, they are one of the worst in the NBA in terms of points allowed to Centers. KAT got into some serious foul trouble and only got to play 28 minutes. He still topped 2PPM and put up 60.5 DKP. Even if everyone plays tomorrow, he is one of the best plays on the slate.


· Donovan and Gobert - Even with Rubio back and playing 23 minutes a game, Donovan hasn’t calmed down. In the game against this Wolves team a couple days back, Donovan put up more than 54 DKP. He will face the same defense and he should be able to do to them the same thing. Similarly, Gobert put up 54 DKP on the nose. KAT is is bad defender. This game is going to have a lot of points scored and it’s going to be close. Most of those points on Utah will be from Donovan and Gobert.


· Satoransky - Even though White is a good defender, he should be on Beal tonight. That means Sato is going to be in the best position at which to attack the Spurs. He’s priced low enough that it would seem his floor is about the same as him hitting value, with a ceiling of 40+DKP. While Beal may be popular tonight, I think Sato is the place to look on this Wizards squad.


Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):


· Spoelstra vs. Fizdale - Talk about two of the worst coaches possible from a DFS perspective meeting up! I don’t like playing people from either of these teams. None can really be trusted. That being said, Mudiay will still be out, so you can look at Trier (who is too expensive) or Trey Burke. Vonleh appears to be the only safe Knick and he has been crushing it lately as the starting C. We will see if they keep him there against Whiteside or if they finally give Kanter a game. On the other side, Tyler Johnson is Questionable. If he misses, I would have more interest in Waiters and Wade. If he plays, I just don’t want to go near this team. None of them are BAD plays, mind you, but none of them are great either. And there’s too many games to get that desperate.


Situations to monitor:


· CP3 Questionable - All indications is that he will play. He should be severely limited, so he’s too expensive to play. Harden will also need to see a massive correction before he’s playable again. Faried and Eric Gordon are still cheap enough to be good plays though and I would have no problem playing them.


· Rose and Tyus - Teague has already been ruled out. Rose and Tyus are Questionable. If both miss, lock in Bayless and Wiggins again. If either play, wait to see if they will start, or if they will face any limitations. Luckily this is the among the first group of games to tip off, so we should know well before lock what the situation is going to be. If I am able to function, I will try to write a good chalk/bad chalk tomorrow to go into more detail about injury news and whatnot.


· Spurs - DeRozan couldn’t play last night and should be considered Questionable as of right now. Gay was forced to leave with an ankle injury. While he said he will play tonight, we won’t know until he wakes up and we see if it swelled up on him or not. If both miss, LMA becomes a chalky lock tonight. As would Belinelli and White. If they both play, I’m not really sure I would have much interest in DeRozan, given the injury, but Gay is cheap enough I would be on him quite a bit.


· Kuzma* - Rondo is my play of the day regardless. If Kuzma is fine to play without limits, I will lock him in tonight as one of the top plays on the slate. If he misses, I will have a long look at Beasley who may be forced into 25 minutes. I also think Ingram would see a nice boost in production.


· Suns Injuries - Melton and TJ Warren are already OUT which means, once again, Booker is an amazing play at far too low a price (even at 8300) and Okobo is still too cheap for a starter getting 30+ minutes. The waiting game tomorrow will come from the Questionable Statuses of Ayton and Holmes. The Lakers are fucking terrible against Centers so whoever gets the start will be a solid lock. If Ayton has no limits, I will lock him the hell in. Ditto if Ayton is out and Holmes is in (or, honestly, at that price, even if Ayton is in). If both miss, you have to look at Bender again in this matchup. This could also be a Quincy Acy game, since they don’t need Bender’s height as much.


Thank you all for reading today and for the constant stream of well-wishes and thoughts and positive vibes and prayers over the last couple of weeks. That have meant a lot to me. And I will carry that love in my heart, always, as well. Make sure you tell the people you love them just how much you cherish them in your life. You may never get another chance. Best of luck tonight, folks. I hope to provide an update article in the afternoon if I can bring myself to do anything.

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