College Football Best Bets: Key Advanced Metrics & Spread Projections
We can't give you all the picks we are posting but here are a few of the games that we like this week! Come give our CheatSheets a try for only $7.99 for a full week of acess to NFL, College Football, PGA and MLB! We also have a premium Facebook group and Facebook chat group!
New Mexico (-11.5) over New Mexico State
I also like the RACE TO X props and first half in this game. This features 57th vs. 123rd ranked teams but NM ST looks awful. What jumps out at me is our models projecting New Mexico by an easy cover so I wanted to look at this game. New Mexico played OU last week who ranks 14th and as a +21.5 point dog they had only a 14-6 loss and hung with them holding them to 61 rush yards, 238 pass yards, 14 FD and only 14 points. This will be a much easier road matchup for them.
Houston (-18.5) / (1st half) over Georgia Southern
This seems like a blowout incoming as HOUSTON coming off that tough game last week vs. Texas Tech as a +7.5 point dog held 458-425 yard edges, 27-22 FD and small edges in rush and passing yards. Now they face 101st ranked Georgia Southern who lost to Jax St last week and this is the toughest opponent they will face. Spread feels really low so I don’t mind laying it, teasing it, taking first half, etc.
James Madison (-5.5) over Old Dominion
This one keeps popping for Pointwise and they have it as a rated play again so wanted to look and our model has JMU winning by 12-17 points so that’s a comfortable projected win. JMU knocked off SDST last week as a slight dog 26-13 and put up solid numbers. Now they go from #81 SDST to #100 Old Dominion who just lost to ECU (#84) while playing @ HOME and only managed 14 FD and 94 pass yards. I’m curious what the RACE TO X props are for this JMU team and if we can get better odds racing to 25 points b/c I don’t think Old Dominion can score 25 points in this game.
My favorite plays are BTTS or “Both Teams to Score” and you will see on a future College Football sheet there will be a column for these plays. Typically, we are looking for games with a total over 55 points with a spread less than 7 and I’m adding in both teams averaging 20+ PPG and I am currently working on this add on. I look for 20+ or 25+ and if I can find the 20+ around (-200) to (-250) I’ll put 2-3 of them together and get plus money. If the line is (-400) or (-500) then I’ll jump it to 25+ or fade it. Here are some of the plays that I’m on for this week.
There are the games that fall into that range and you can mix & match whichever games you like:
Texas vs. Tennessee – Both Teams 20+ Points
Oregon vs. USC – Both Teams 20+ Points
UCLA vs. Maryland – Both Teams 20+ Points
Ole Miss vs. Florida – Both Teams 20+ Points
Oklahoma State vs. West Va – Both Teams 20+ Points
Kansas State vs. Cincy – Both Teams 20+ Points
Incase you are wondering if you put all of these together it pays (+475) before any boosted odds from your sportsbook. You can go to 25+ points on most of these and get (+) money.
Good Luck,
Haze!
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