NBA Sports Betting Report (February 29th, 2020) from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Last night missed my 5 team parlay that paid 20:1 odds on an under. Even when I wrote it up I stated I hate unders, always fade unders but I’m playing this one and it squeaked over and shot me in the foot! Let’s get back in tonight and find some freaking WINNERS!
Definitions for Article: O/E is offensive efficiency and that is how many points are scored on offensive per 100 possessions. D/E is defensive efficiency and that is how many points are allowed on defensive per 100 possessions.
PLAYS TO CONSIDER:
THE PLAY: Chicago / Knicks OVER 215.5
OUR MODEL PROJECTED SCORE: Chicago 119 vs. Knicks 110
ANALYSIS: I don’t have a spread up on this game right now but they have the total posted and we like the over here. When our model has the game going over, the projected pace and efficiency projection has it going over PLUS the average PPG on offense combined are OVER AND the average allowed PPG on defensive is OVER then we are going to play that game. When we get 4 OVERS or 4 UNDERS that is where we are leaning for totals. Last night they were 5-1 if you are curious. Model has this at 229, PPG combined over last 3 is 224 and allowed is 233 and our projected pace is only 100.3 but both teams have an average D/E of 1.14 putting that projection at 222.4 and that is a safe number. Unless there is someone ruled out (like Toronto) last night I’m going with the over here. You can look at basketball-reference for ON/OFF numbers or just check our cheatsheet and that will indicate the changes in the total when that player is ON or OFF the court.
THE PLAY: BKN/MIA over 218.5
OUR MODEL PROJECTED SCORE: Miami 119 vs. BKN 114
ANALYSIS: This game is close to the opening spread but now it is off the board. The Vegas total opened at 223 and flew down to 218.5 which is a red flag for me but I haven’t seen any key injuries pop up. We have this game hitting 233 on our model and a solid projected pace of 107.6 with a projected average O/E of 1.11 and D/E is even worse at 1.16. Scored and allowed PPG last 3 are 236 and 246. Let’s this one slide down and grab the over!
THE PLAY: Lakers -8 and UNDER 226.5 (if LeBron is a go!)
OUR MODEL PROJECTED SCORE: Lakes 112 vs. Memphis 104
ANALYSIS: I hate unders so personally I won’t be it so that means it will likely win! I will do that for you guys, I’ll fade the great looking play so you guys came make some money off of it! First the total, LAL are only running a 1.06 O/E number and an NBA 2nd best 0.94 allowance for D/E. Memphis is only running an O/E of 0.98 with a horrible 1.16 D/E with is bottom 7 in the NBA. Lakers have a huge advantage here and LeBron is Q and it is almost worth betting if you think he is going to play. Even if he doesn’t play I think Lakers easily take this game. I mean Memphis is 4-6 in their L10 games and have lost 4 straight and the Lakers are on 7 wins in a row and 24-5 on the road. We also have a last 3 scoring margin of a whopping -33 for these teams. Lakers are winning by an average of 13.7 PPG and Memphis is losing by an average of 19.3. Wowzers! Lakers should be able to get up in this game to a decent lead and the bleed the clock holding their 0.94 D/E number and staying under the total. Last 3 scored PPG is only 219 combined and allowed is 225 both under the 226.5 total.
THE PLAY: Cleveland +8
OUR MODEL PROJECTED SCORE: Cleveland 111 vs. INDY 102
ANALYSIS: I know this is a hard one to stomach and our sheet is leaning for bet on the under here of 215 but it’s really close to that number. Our model has this at 212 and with a projected pace of only 103.3 and O/E of 1.03 and D/E of 1.04 this should be between 200-218. Both teams are 4-6 in their L10 games and both teams have won 2 straight games. IND is 0.99 O/E and 0.99 D/E while CLE is at 1.09 on O/E and 10.6 on D/E. This game ranks out closely on our sheet and IND has a big blocks and steals advantage of +5.3 but CLE is shooting the 3 ball at a 7% better clip and holding a better offensive efficiency number. Take the points and hope for a close game! Not my favorite play but one that is interesting if you are running several plays tonight.
THE PLAY: Orlando OVER Spurs (No Line Up)
OUR MODEL PROJECTED SCORE: Orlando 129 vs. Spurs 105
ANALYSIS: I don’t see a line on this game but I like Orlando so the line will determine if I play it or fade it. Aldridge is out tonight but they don’t really miss a ton of points when he is off the court (surprisingly). ORL holds a 0.18 efficiency advantage as they lead O/E 1.19 to only 1.00 and they are both pretty close in D/E at 1.11 vs. 1.08. Orlando over the last 3 games has a #2 ranking in NBA for O/E at that 1.19. Orlando is also leading the eFG% shooting 11% better than the Spurs for 7th best in the NBA vs. only 47% for the Spurs and that ranks 29thin the NBA if you are curious. All of the other stats are pretty tight. The Magic are 5-5 in their last 10 games and won 2 straight while the Spurs are 3-7 in their last 10 games and lost their last 2 games. ORL has a scoring margin over the last 3 with a winning average of 7.7 and Spurs are losing by 8.3 PPG. Lay the points!
SPECIAL NOTES:
If you are a premium member and looking at our sheets it looks like the Boston/Houston game is going to go over. However, if you use the ON/OFF section for Kemba Walker you see they average 227.8 when he is ON the court but only 212.8 when he is OFF The court. That just means I’m staying away from the total at this point.
NEW SPORTS BETTING TAB:
Here is a preview of what the Sports Betting Tab looks like on our cheatsheets. We give you a model projected score, breakdown all the stats just like on the stat sheet when checking scores. We only show ranks if they come up in the top 7 or bottom 7 so it's clear and concise and not filled with unnecessary numbers. We also highlight any difference. You can see below that ORL has an eFG% +11% better than SAS. They also have a 0.18 total efficiency advantage. We also bring in other stats such as team records, Vegas ATS records, Player On/Off stats and projected plays. If the model has it Over, the Scored and Allowed PPG are both "Over" and the Projected pace and total is "Over" then we hit the Over with 2 units!
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Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze