NBA Grade Tab Recap 2-20-2020 from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
I like to look back and explain thought processes using the grade tab. The idea is if you can follow these easy steps, use the projections and just lower the exposure or remove the high chance of failure players you will have more competitive lines. So remember we are looking for players projected over 30 minutes and total edge over 100 but prefer over 120 if possible. Players projected under 30 minutes have a high variance on their minutes and most of the time they don't hit that projected number. Stay safe with your core!
PLAYER BREAKDOWN FROM GRADE TAB:
Shaq Harrison - Putting up over 4x value with 10 minutes is amazing by itself and then he is projected for 30 minutes. No way he doesn't gain 1 more x value with 3x more minutes. Also his FPPM production is 0.99 up to 1.20 for a +21% gain! He went for 6.2x value. So that is chalk we like!
Daniel Gafford - First thing you should notice is minutes projected <30 is a red flag so we have to determine if we think he will or won't get those minutes. His FPPM production dipped from 1.01 down to 0.78 so that is red flag #2. He ended up playing only 16 minutes which is closer to his L4 average of 13.5 than his projected number of 22. You can't score if you are not on the court. Easy person to fade here.
Jordan Poole - First player with edge over 100 and projected minutes over 30 so we can look at him for a possible core play. My first question is are his L4 average minutes close to his projected minutes? Yes he is avg 28.1 L4 and projected for 31 so that is close enough for me. My next question is what has he done with those 28.1 minutes? He is hitting 6.45x value and his FPPM production is in the same range. An easy player to either lock in or have a ton of.
Coby White - Edge < 100 but minutes over 30. I'm fine using him but not as a core play due to the total edge ranking. His 29.1 L4 average he is putting up 6x value so I would have him in my player pool with limited ownership. He was under 5x value so this is a whiff.
Luke Kornet - Edge over 100 but minutes under 30. With 23.4 minutes avg L4 and then projected at 26 we have to worry about his minutes. He only played 15 minutes and didn't hit value. Remember high variance on minutes when players are averaging or projected under 30! This is a prime example of some chalk value that hit the wrong side and a fade here would of put you ahead of the field.
Robert Covington - This is the 2nd player to consider part of a core because his total edge is over 100 and well over 120 at 182.5 and his projected minutes are over 30. He is also averaging 31.7 his L4 so we know his 30 minutes are pretty much locked in. In those 31.7 minutes he is hitting 5.4x value which is solid. Definitely a core play consideration.
Eric Paschall - Here is edge over 100 and minutes under 30. His minutes are projected at 27 and his L4 average is 26.2. In those 26.2 he is around 4.7x value. I'd be fine either way here, I mean if you want to fade him due to projected under 30 I understand it. You can also look at his FPPM drop from 1.02 to 0.86 for a -16% drop. He ended up playing 32 minutes so he hit the good side of the variance but still only 5.5x value so if you did fade him you were fine as he wasn't a GPP winning player that put up 8x, 9x or 10x value.
Josh Richardson - You get the point reading the write up on the above guys so I'll hit these last two guys pretty quick. Minutes projected over 30, total edge under 100. L4 only playing 17.4. So you have to determine is there someone who is "out" that is going to let him double his minutes or is he just part of the rotation and they think he will play more? In only 17.4 minutes he has been hitting almost 3x value so doubling that would put him at around 6x. If you think he is getting the minutes I'm good with putting him in the player pool. He ended up playing 39 minutes and going for 6.5x value.
Tomas Satoransky - Edge slightly under 100 and minutes over 30. In 28.7 min over his L4 he has been hitting 5.05x value running at around a 0.90 FPPM and projected to play 33. I would look at his as a safe cash play to get 5x value but not a GPP winning player that is going to hit that 8x-10x value. He ended up hitting 6.7x value for a solid play.
I hope this helps you understand the "Grade" tab on players and I'll continue to write these up for you with the thought process so you can understand how I am looking at players.
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Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze