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MLB Breakdown for 4/11/2019!



Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings.


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Early Slate

Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather)

Marlins vs Reds - 1235pm

Pablo Lopez, RHP - 1-1, 10.1 IP, 6.10 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 1 BB, 12 K

Sonny Gray, RHP - 0-2, 9.1 IP, 2.89 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 4 BB, 7 K

Projected Total: 8.5 (CIN 4.8 - MIA 3.7)

Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Hot. Temps climbing to 80 by the end of the game. Winds blowing in at 14 mph by the end of the game. Boost to pitchers.


A’s vs O’s - 1235pm

Aaron Brooks, RHP - 1-1, 11.0 IP, 4.09 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2 BB, 8 K

Dylan Bundy, RHP - 0-0, 7.1 IP, 7.36 ERA, 2.05 WHIP, 7 BB, 9 K

Projected Total: 10 (A’s 5.7 - O’s 4.3)

Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Warm. Temp around 60. Winds blowing in at 10mph. Boost to pitchers.


Indians vs Tigers - 110pm

Shane Bieber, RHP - 0-0, 8.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 2 BB, 11K

Spencer Turnbull, RHP - 0-1, 11.0 IP, 4.09 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 4 BB, 15 K

Projected Total: 8 (CLE 4.3 - DET 3.7)

Weather: Windy and Overcast. Temps in the mid 40s. Winds blowing in at 20mph. HUGE BOOST to pitchers.


Dodgers vs Cardinals - 115pm

Walker Buehler, RHP - 1-0, 8.0 IP, 6.75 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 3 BB,4 K

Michael Wacha, RHP - 0-0, 11.2 IP, 1.54 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 12 BB, 14 K

Projected Total: 8 (LAD 4.3 - STL 3.7)

Weather: Windy and Overcast and Hot. Temps in the mid 70s. Winds blowing out to LF at 22mph. HUGE BOOST to bats.


Mariners vs Royals - 115pm

Mike Leake, RHP - 2-0, 12.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 2 BB, 13 K

Jorge Lopez, RHP - 0-1, 11.0 IP, 4.09 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 4 BB, 8 K

Projected Total: 10 (SEA 5.4 - KC 4.6)

Weather: Windy and Cloudy and Warm. Temps around 60. Winds blowing out to CF at 24mph. HUGE BOOST to bats.


Pitchers

Good Pitchers

Shane Bieber (9900, RHP) at DET - I’m not sure how high the ownership is going to be on the pitchers in this game, but it’s not going to be high enough. Bieber has gotten one start so far this year (that often happens to 5th starters). He went 6 IP, giving up 2 hits, 2 ER, 2 walks and 9 Ks. And that is totally in line with his norm. That was good for 25.1 DKP. I don’t think any other pitcher on this slate is going to get anywhere close to this. He also has himself a great matchup against a poor Tigers offense that strikes out a TON as it is. Don’t get cute here. No one is even close to Shane here. And the bats are too cheap not to pay for him.


Spencer Turnbull (7900, RHP) vs CLE - On the day of his first start, when he was 6000, I told you to play Turnbull as a GPP play. He did good. Not great, but good, giving up 3 ER in 5 IP while striking out 5. That was good enough for 11.1 DKP. Better than a lot of other pitchers at a lot cheaper. This was slightly worse than I had expected from him, though, so when his price fell 200 for his 2nd start I told you that you REALLY need to play him. He went 6 IP giving up 2 ER and striking out 10 in a matchup against a Royals team that strikes out the 6th fewest so far this season (7.7 K/game). That was good for 24.7 DKP. And his price only came up to 7900? Against this Indians team that strikes out 2nd most so far this season (against much worse pitchers than the worst team)? Sign me up. Like I said, I don’t know how much people are going to be on these 2 dudes, but it won’t be nearly enough for a 5 game slate.


Great Spots

Aaron Brooks (6900, RHP) at BAL - Aaron Brooks is a decent pitcher that will have his share of up and down days. Just look at his two starts. Last time out, against a tough HOU offense, he got shelled. In 5 IP, he gave up 5 ER on 9 hits and 1 walk and, as is par for the course against the Astros, only struck out one. His first start of the year, against a tougher BOS offense, he got through 6 IP allowing only 2 hits and 1 walk, 0 runs and 6 Ks. I wouldn’t necessarily expect 25 DKP out of him again, but he could certainly get 20 and, at that price, you can’t argue with that.


GPP Plays

Pablo Lopez (7100, RHP) at CIN - On a smaller slate, we are going to have to take some chances. Especially when it comes to a game like baseball. Take Lopez, a kid from the Marlins who has really great stuff, but hasn’t matured into it yet. His first start of the season, he gave up 3 ER on 5 hits and 0 BB. But, because Ks are King like I always say, he got 7 K in his 5.1 IP and, even with the runs and hits, he still managed 20.4 DKP. That’s totally usable. His next start, he did much worse - 4 ER on 7 hits (2 HR) and 1 BB. Most of the time if I tell you that, you would expect the pitcher to have a negative score. But, again, because Lopez picked up 5 K in 5 IP he managed to get 8.5 IP. If that’s going to be a bad start for him, and he can get you more than 20 with high K upside, you really just have to take the chance here. It’s just crazy that he’s the 3rd cheapest pitcher on this slate.


No Thanks

Walker Buehler (9700, RHP) at STL - Buehler is a fine real life pitcher. But he’s not someone I am going to want to take until he starts striking more people out. While, last season, over a much longer period of time, he amassed a K/9 of almost 10, so far over 2 games he only has 4 K in 8 IP. He has given up 2 more ER than Ks. While I certainly think he has the ability to have a great start most of the time, this is a REALLY tough Cardinals team. Especially when the wind is going to be blowing out so crazily and the Dodgers don’t let their pitchers go as deep as we would like, especially for 10k.


Batters

Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)

A’s vs Dylan Bundy (RHP, @BAL) - As you saw last night, you can play whoever is going against the O’s. Especially when it’s a dynamic offense like the A’s. Dylan Bundy is barely a major league pitcher. He gives up a ton of HR and walks and hits and this is going to be a mess. Also, we get the double benefit of a horrible O’s bullpen, and the A’s getting 9 ABs no matter what.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9

Chalk Level (1-10): 9

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Grossman (OF - 3800), Morales (1B - 3600), Profar (1B/2B - 3800), then start at the top and work down. These guys are underpriced.


Marlins vs Sonny Gray (RHP, @CIN) - Congratulations, Marlins. You have finally made it to the stacking opportunities category. Sonny Gray is a terrible pitcher who is way too expensive, and will be way too popular regardless of that fact. But, while this Marlins team isn’t fantastic, or good, or even mediocre, there are going to be some pitchers they profile well against. Sonny Gray is one of those - a reverse splits RHP against this specific lineup is going to have a hard time. If you want a contrarian stack no one will be on - take a few stabs here cause you’ll be able to play whoever else you want.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8

Chalk Level (1-10): 2

Preferred Stack: Mini

Preferred Players: Alfaro (C - 3500), Anderson (3B - 3000), Castro (2B - 3600), Granderson (OF - 3800), Walker (1B/2B - 3500)


Cardinals vs Walker Buehler (RHP, LAD) - I know Buehler is a good pitcher. I know this is going to make him popular today. But he hasn’t looked like 2018 Buehler yet and, given the weather situation, I will take a chance that one of these powerful Cards can get the ball in air and it will carry out.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7

Chalk Level (1-10): 3

Preferred Stack: Full or Mini

Preferred Players: DeJong (SS - 4000), Carpenter (3B - 4200), Goldschmidt (1B - 4600), Ozuna (OF - 3600), Molina (C - 3200), Wong (2B - 3800)


Dodgers vs Michael Wacha (RHP, @STL) - Like with Buehler, Wacha is a good pitcher. I mean, he’s not as good as Buehler, and I think he’s been pitching slightly over his head so far this season. But that being said, he’s not terrible. He’s not someone you see and say “oh fuck yeah. Stack me up, mateys!” (pirate version). But today, against a Dodgers team that has no problem hitting the ball in the air with power, with the winds blowing out at 22mph, I will definitely take way more of a chance on the offense getting some HRs for us than on Wacha shutting them down.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8

Chalk Level (1-10): 6

Preferred Stack: Full or Mini

Preferred Players: Pollock (OF - 4000), Turner (3B - 4100), Taylor (OF/SS - 3700), Hernandez (2B - 4400), Barnes (C - 4000), then start at the top and work down prioritizing any other RHBs that get the start today

Mariners vs Jorge Lopez (RHP, @KC) - As good as the STL game is for HRs, this one is even better. The wind is going to be steady at 25 mph. It will be blowing out to dead center, which means every bat is boosted. And these are 2 pitchers that give up a LOT of HR. Either one is going to be an underpriced and underutilized stack today, considering that there’s a ton of plays here. Note Lopez has shown reverse splits in his career so I would focus on RHB first.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9

Chalk Level (1-10): 8

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Haniger (OF - 4400), Santana (OF - 4800), Mallex (OF - 4300), Bruce (1B/OF - 4500), Vogelbach (1B - 4700), Beckham (SS - 4100), Narvaez (C - 3800), Healy (1B/3B - 3900)


Royals vs Mike Leake (RHP, SEA) Everything I just said about Lopez applies here, so go read that if you didn’t. Or copy paste it. The only difference is that Leake doesn’t really show any splits. So you can just go nuts here.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10

Chalk Level (1-10): 7

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Start at the top and work down.

One-Off Batters

Everyone that I would be interested was covered with a stack.


HR CALL OF THE SLATE: Mitch Haniger


Main Slate

Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather)

Blue Jays vs Red Sox - 710pm

Aaron Sanchez, RHP - 1-1, 11.0 IP, 1.64 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 5 BB, 11 K

Nathan Eovaldi, RHP - 0-0, 10.0 IP, 8.10 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 6 BB, 6 K

Projected Total: 9 (BOS 5.3 - TOR 3.7)

Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Cool. Temps in the high 40s. Light Winds.


Mets vs Braves - 720pm

Steven Matz, LHP - 0-0, 10.1 IP, 0.87 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 4 BB, 11 K

Kevin Gausman, RHP - 1-0, 7.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 2 BB, 7 K

Projected Total: 8.5 (ATL 4.4 - NYM 4.1)

Weather: Partly Cloudy and Warm. Temps around 75. Winds blowing in at 12mph. Boost to pitchers.


Pirates vs Cubs - 805pm

Joe Musgrove, RHP - 1-0, 9.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.44 WHIP, 1 BB, 9 K

Jose Quintana, LHP - 0-1, 7.0 IP, 10.29 ERA, 2.71 WHIP, 6 BB, 11 K

Projected Total: N/A

Weather: RAIN 60% chance of rain through the game, into the night. Temps around 60. Winds blowing out to LF at 14 mph.


Padres vs Dbacks - 940pm

Pedro Avila, RHP - FIRST START

Zack Godley, RHP - 1-1, 11.0 IP, 6.55 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 5 BB, 8 K

Projected Total: N/A

Weather: DOME


Rockies vs Giants - 945pm

Jon Gray, RHP - 0-2, 12.2 IP, 5.68 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 3 BB, 14 K

Jeff Samardzija, RHP - 0-0, 9.2 IP, 2.79 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 5 BB, 6 K

Projected Total: 7, Pick Em

Weather: Partly Cloudy and Cool. Temps in the mid 50s. Winds blowing out at 20mph. SF park is built to minimize wind impact.


Weather Games

Pirates vs Cubs - This game is going to have a chance of rain the entirety of the game. In fact, the chance for rain increases as the game goes on, which means that, if this game does get stopped it likely won’t get restarted. We are going to have to pay close attention to this one especially. Right now, Wrigley is one of the parks most affected by wind so, if this game plays with winds blowing out at 14 mph to LF you are going to want to load up on a bunch of RHB from this game. ESPECIALLY some of the RHB from the Pirates, since they would line up against a Quintana that just gave up 8 ER in 3 IP, including 3 HR, to the Brewers. While no one is going to mistake this Pirates team for the Brewers, a 14 mph wind blowing out of Wrigley would help. Make sure you lock in Marte and Cervelli on that side, and Bryant and Baez from the other side. The RH Pirates bats are especially cheap, letting you play whatever other stacks or pitchers you want.


Pitchers

Good Pitchers

Steven Matz (8100, LHP) at ATL - While I don’t think he’s an ace, I also know that Matz doesn’t get the respect he deserves. While he may not be the best pitcher on this slate, he is certainly a well above average pitcher and, if he isn’t the best, he’s 2nd best. Last start, against a tougher Nats offense (against LHP especially), he got up to 103 pitches, striking out 8 in 5 IP. Sure he walked 4, but he only gave up 4 hits and 0 runs. Plus, he kept the ball on the ground, with only 1 ball being hit in the air, including line drives, in 5 IP. He strikes people out, he limits damage, and he is going against a good Braves team, sure, but one he will be able to work through. I expect him to be exceedingly unpopular tonight and I will definitely be on the other side of that.


Jon Gray (9300, RHP) at SFG - The 2 most popular pitchers of the slate are going to be going against each other. If FD and Yahoo pricing is anything like the pricing on DK, everyone is either going to pay up for Gray and/or take the cheap play on Samardzija. Obviously FD is one pitcher and Yahoo is 2 like DK. But regardless, these dudes are in the best spots, going against the 2 worst offenses, in the best park for pitching. On top of that, these teams are both projected to get the lowest number of runs tonight. Gray is a fantastic pitcher who gets a load of Ks. He, unlike most other pitchers, doesn’t have home/road splits, so how well he does is based on if he has his stuff that day. Going against a shitty Giants lineup in a great park should be enough for Gray to more than get value for that price.


Great Spots

Nate Eovaldi (8600, RHP) vs TOR - I am worried about Eovaldi here. I can definitely understand if you decide you don’t want to take the chance here and either leave this alone, or stack against him. But Eovaldi is an incredible pitcher with incredible stuff that has a lot of trouble controlling it. We see this all the time. People think that, when a pitcher is wild, it means the ball is in the dirt, or over the catcher’s head. But there’s one important thing you need to realize that people don’t think about when you are wild, it means you can’t control where the ball goes. That means it could go in the dirt, it could go over the catcher’s head, or it could wind up as a meatball right over the plate. That’s why, with Eovaldi, you often see a start where he has no hit stuff, or where he walks a bunch of people and gives up a bunch of HRs. Look at his first 2 starts - 3 HR and 2 BB in the first. 1 HR and 4 BB in the 2nd. I think that, given the futility of this Blue Jays offense, I will take the chance that Eovaldi has one of those days where he can get it all together. While I don’t always give weight to this, the sample size is large enough that you should know he has serious home and away splits in that he is much worse on the road than at home. His first 2 starts were on the road and, today, he gets his first start of the season at home. I mean. It’s significant.


GPP Plays

Pedro Avila (7800, RHP) at ARI - I have told you in the past I am a sucker for a rookie making his first start. Sure, it doesn’t work out sometimes, but sometimes you get some crazy performances before teams have had a chance to scout and analyze someone. Well, as of right now, Avila has thrown one game in AA. Every other pitch he’s throw was in A ball or rookie ball. There is no way the DBacks are going to have adequate scouting on him and his success may come down to nerves. If he takes the big step on the big stage, we could be in for a great performance, especially since Avila has a career K/9 of around 11 in his 5 years in the minors so far. And he’s only 22. Man the Padres farm system is stacked. I wish he was priced like a rookie, but, regardless, on a 5 gamer you could do a lot worse for the price.


No Thanks

Jeff Samardzija (7500, RHP) vs COL - The Shark is who I project to be the highest owned pitcher on the slate. He’s the 2nd cheapest pitcher, he used to strike people out, he used to be good, he’s in a good park, the Rockies have a low total, the Rockies are poor outside of Coors. There’s a lot the Shark has going for him. But what he doesn’t have going for him is the fact he’s just not fucking good. Like, he’s gone against bad offenses in good parks for a long time and that doesn’t stop him from giving up a fuckload of runs. Or going 5 IP with 2 K so, even though he had a good real life start, the 9 DKP he gets doesn’t really do anything but hurt us. And I am going to get the hell away from Samardzija today. If anything, feel free to take some of the Rockies bats.


Batters

Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)

Red Sox vs Aaron Sanchez (RHP, TOR) - It would look like Sanchez has had a good couple starts to the season. 11 K in 11 IP is great (and well above his usual numbers.) But he was going against weak Tigers and Indians offenses. And he still wound up walking 5 and giving up 8 hits in that stretch, meaning he’s not limiting baserunners, he’s just working out of trouble. Well, it’s a lot harder to work out of trouble against the Red Sox. It’s a lot harder to get a K/9 of 9, too.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 6

Chalk Level (1-10): 10

Preferred Stack: Full

**Preferred Players: Benintendi (OF - 4600), Moreland (1B - 4500), Betts (OF - 5400), Martinez (OF - 5200), Bogaerts (SS - 4300), Devers (3B - 3900), whoever else you wanna fit in at the bottom. **


Mets vs Kevin Gausman (RHP, @ATL) - Fun fact about the Mets - they hit worse at home. They are the only team since Citi Field opened 11 years ago to do worse at home than on the road. But it’s consistent. One person I read made it sound like a kind of reverse Coors Field effect - where Citi Field just reduced production about as much as Coors Field enhances it. So now, with the Mets on the road, against Kevin Gausman after getting an unexpected extra day of rest, I will take another chance on this underrated offense. Especially with some of these righties against a reverse splits RHP in Gausman. I know the wind is blowing in, but some of these guys hit the ball hard enough it doesn’t matter.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7

Chalk Level (1-10): 4

Preferred Stack: Full or Mini

Preferred Players: Alonso (1B - 4800), Davis (3B - 4000), Ramos (C - 3900), Conforto (OF - 4700), Nimmo (OF - 3800), whoever else you want to play


Padres vs Zack Godley (RHP, @ARI) - If you haven’t done so, take a second and go back in this article and read what I wrote about Nate Eovaldi and then cut and paste it for Godley. He is a pitcher who has extreme problems with control. I mean, he was the major league leader in wild pitches last year after at 17. And he already has 2 this year. If Godley is on, he can be dangerous but, most of the time, he can’t put the pitch where he wants, which leaves him vulnerable to the HR. The Padres, going into Coors South, should be able to punish Godley if he has one of his normal, wild games. And once they get him out, they get the pleasure of the Dbacks bullpen.

How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9

Chalk Level (1-10): 6

Preferred Stack: Full

Preferred Players: Margot (OF - 3600), Hosmer (1B - 4000), Machado (3B - 4400), Renfroe (OF - 4400), Myers (1B/OF - 4600), Tatis (SS - 4000), Whoever plays Catcher


One-Off Batters

Rowdy Tellez (1B - 3700) - Tellez is a beefy dude with a lot of power. If Eovaldi leaves one over the plate, Tellez is going to hit it back to Canada.

Blackmon (OF - 4400) and Tapia (OF - 3600) - Samardzija has a problem with LHB and, while I don’t like the park, I will take a chance that Shark keeps on sucking and these underpriced dudes will be able to produce on this price and far less ownership than they deserve.


HR CALL OF THE SLATE: Manny Machado

Ok, that does it. Time to try and get some sleep! I love all of you and best of luck on both these fun slates tomorrow!!

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