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MLB Breakdown for August 9th from CheatSheetPros!


MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!


RECAP FROM A RED HOT DAY YESTERDAY:

Yesterday we just posted fire! Our recommendations were Chris Sale (46.8 points) highest scoring pitcher on the slate, Mike Clevinger (30.8 points) 2nd highest scoring pitcher but yes they were also priced above $10k. But the highest priced pitcher was Matt Boyd and we wrote him up as a FADE with a Royals STACK and he was knocked out before the 3rd inning, Royals hung 8 runs on them and Boyd ended at -7.4 DK points! You want value? We had Mad Bum (24.5 Dk points) 4th highest scoring pitcher on the slate as a great value. You want punts? We had Dillon Peters just over $5k as the best punt options and he put up 19.9 DK points for close to a 4x value! We also faded Kyle Gibson and broke down why we were fading him when other sites were on him and recommending him. He ended up with -2.3 DK points.


PITCHERS TO CONSIDER: (HIGH TIER – MID TIER – LOW TIER)

WALKER BUEHLER (11500) – We were all over his last start where he dropped 52 DK points with a complete game and 15Ks. He is a beast at home. His last 4 home starts are 52, 39, 22 and 53 DK points. If you can afford him you have to play him! His stats at home: 2.54 ERA – allows a low .222 wOBA – massive 11.5 K9 ratio – 0.79 whip and allowing a low .197 opponent batting average. 4th ranked bullpen coming in behind him to hold onto the win if the Dodgers can hit Robbie Ray!


SHANE BIEBER (10700) – His last 3 starts he has put up 36, 22 and 48 DK points. One of those games was even vs. a red hot HOU team and he went 7.0 innings – 2 ER and 8 Ks which is very impressive considering the slaughtering they are doing right now. Bieber on the road has a 2.79 ERA – 0.76 whip – 10.5 K9 ratio and allowing a .173 opponent batting average. He allows a .202 average vs. LHH and low .219 vs. RHH with the #2 bullpen behind him.


YU DARVISH (9200) – Turning a corner he has 3 of his last 4 starts over 23 DK points. His last two starts were 26 and 23 DK points and he went a total of 11.0 innings with 3 ER and 17 strikeouts. He did face CIN on July 17th and went 29.1 DK points and did not allow an ER. Darvish on the road has a solid 3.96 ERA – 1.17 whip – allowing a .213 opponent batting average.


WADE MILEY (9000) – His last 3 starts have all been 20+ DK points. He has not allowed more than 3 ER in 7 straight starts and 6 of the 7 have been 2 ER or less! He was close to a no-no his last time out before giving up a single in the 5th inning. He faced BAL on June 9th for 22.7 DK points and went 6.0 innings – 0 ER – 5 strikeouts. BVP is good with a .194 average but only 31 team Abs. He has the 5th ranked bullpen coming in after him so he should be able to hold the win.


BRAD KELLER (8000) – 4 of his last 5 starts have been 22 DK points or higher giving him a close to 3x value floor. He even had one of those at 31.6 which is close to 4x value. And do you know who that 31.6 game was against? Yes the Detroit Tiggers! He went 8.0 innings with 1 ER and 7 strikeouts. I like pitchers who have faced a team prior in the year and had success. BVP history is .214 average through 42 team Abs. He is allowing a .252 average to LHH and .239 vs. RHH. He is slightly better at home but on the road vs. a rough DET team is a GPP play.


DEVIN SMELTZER (7800) – He wasn’t in the pool but after I was done with the pitching I’m coming back and adding him in. He has a 2.28 ERA with a 0.90 whip and allowing a .204 hitter average. He only has just shy of 30 innings but that is impressive. His home ERA is only 0.84 (although his xFIP is 3.84) but that’s still solid. Home whip is 0.80 with a .200 batting average. I originally skipped him because I think CLE can get hot and put up some runs on the board but if you are not stacking CLE today then Smelty would be a pitcher I may consider. I’ll likely be on both sides here with a CLE stack and then some lines with Smelty as my mid-low SP.


KOLBY ALLARD (6800) – Trying to get down to the mid-low tier to find some values now. Kolby is coming up after 1 start at AAA and he struck out 8 hitters in 5 scoreless innings and is a former top 50 prospect. Very risky GPP play but could have some success since the teams hasn’t faced him before.


CAL QUANTRILL (6200) – Not much today on the cheap side but Cal is someone I’d consider. He is coming off 9, 18, 28 and 17 DK point outings and only 1 of his last 4 starts he has allowed over 1 ER and that was 2 ER. In those 4 starts he tossed 22.0 innings with 16 Ks and 3 ERs. If he can get close to that 28 DK point start that is pushing 5x value! He holds a solid 3.57 ERA and allowing a .238 opponent batting average with the #3 bullpen behind him. That’s solid for a low $6k pitcher. COL on the road has a wRC+ of only 83.1 (100 is league average) and they support a massive 26.1% strikeout rate outside of Coors. COL is 6-14 in their L20 games and rank 23rd in our L10 game power rankings.


DREW SMYLY (5800) – Risky GPP shot here. His last 4 starts he has been from -1.3 DK points up to 27 DK points. He gave up 5 ER to a terrible CHW team but prior to that he up to two games at 24+ DK points giving up a 4x value. He is facing SFG tonight and saw them just on July 30th and that was his 27 DK point game. Stats are not good so I won’t waste time writing them in. Risk-Reward punt option only to be used in GPPs.


ONE-OFF CHEAP HITTERS TO MIX IN: Stacks are going to get expensive today because DK pricing has caught up so looking for some cheap hitters to fill in that have been hot lately or in a good matchup! <To find these hitters I look at our recent stat cheatsheet and look at the salary filer under 4200 and sort by Last 7 day value.>


NICK CASTELLANOS (4000) – Put up 35, 12 and 26 points in L3 games.

BRIAN ANDERSON (4100) – 35, 0, 17 and 19 points in L4 games.

ARISTIDES AQUINO (3700) – 23, 22, 7 and 23 in L4 games.

MIGGY CABRERA (3500) – 18, 15, 3 and 21 points in L4 games.

JORDY MERCER (3000) – 16, 23, 6 and 8 points in L4 games.


STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:

HOUSTON, HOUSTON, HOUSTON – Like I said in the last couple articles I’ll stack them every day in 25% of my lines until they cool off. They are #1 in our L10 game power rankings, hitting .328 as a team and scoring 9.4 runs per game over the last week. DK caught up on the pricing so they are expensive so you are going to have to take some GPP darts for pitching to fit them in but they are consistent. Facing Dylan Bundy tonight they are hitting .340 off him through 50 team Abs and then they get the 27th ranked bullpen when he comes out of the game. Expect another big HOU night! ((NOTE: Josh Reddick is 3600 and although he is cold right now he is 7 for 13 off Bundy.))


NYY vs. Foley – Ok so I hope you got our last two articles with stacking NYY vs. LHP and they crushed both of them. I stacked 17 lines last night all with 5 man NYY stacks and mixed in other teams (such as Royals!) and did really well. NYY are not facing a LHP today but they are facing Foley who has a 2.49 ERA, that’s good right? Well no it’s not because his xFIP is 6.35 which means he has been lucky as shit! He has limited innings but in those he is allowing a .282 average vs. LHH (focus on them). His K9 rate is cut in half vs. RHH. NYY are #2 in our L10 game power rankings, scoring 8.8 runs per game and hitting a whopping .326 as a team! NYY’s are also CHEAP! You can stack the 5 highest hitters are only 4420 average per hitter (compare that to HOUSTON where the top 5 are around 5400 average).


GPP SNEAKY STACK: NYM vs. Strausburg – Ok here my out, I haven’t lost my mind. I hate Strausburg and can’t get him right. My last article I finally tossed in the towel after 5 straight solid starts and put him in. He ended up giving up 9 ER in 4.2 innings vs. a mediocre ARI team. Now he is dead to me and I won’t recommend him even if it’s against DET or MIA. He is a fade for me as a pitcher. But looking at NYM as a contrarian sneaky stack. They are only projected at 3.9 runs in a game where the total is 8.0. However NYM are a sneaky 3rd in our L10 game power rankings, scoring 6.7 runs per game over the last week and hitting a whopping .286. And they are CHEAP since they are facing Strausburg. You can get a 5 man stack for 4240 per hitter down to 3840 per hitter. We were on Royals last night in the same spot facing Matt Boyd and they put up 8 runs and almost won the game as a +150 dog. Consider NYM tonight for a line in a single entry contest.


BOSTON vs. Barria – Boston was projected as the highest scoring team on the slate last night and we wrote them up as a complete FADE for stacking purposes and they won the game but only scored 3 runs. Tonight I think you can consider them. Yes they still suck right now but they have to break out of the funk eventually right? They are expensive and that sucks paying a ton of money for a team that is hitting .218 over the last week and scoring only 3.5 runs per game. They also rank 27th in our L10 game power rankings. However here is my point – Jamie Barria is allowing a .409 wOBA and .320 average to RHH. On the road he has an ERA of 10.13 (xFIP is still 5.67), .451 wOBA, a whip of a whopping 2.13 (1.15 is good 2+ is horrible) and a .349 batting average. I’d look at Xander & J.D. Martinez. JD is red hot right now with a 13+ FPPG average and Xander has a .396 wOBA and 145.5 wRC+ vs. RHP. Even a mini-stack of the 2-3-4 or 3-4-5 hitters I’d consider.


KANSAS CITY ROYALS – Edwin isn’t a lock down pitcher so why not? They are scoring 5.0 runs per game over the last week and put up 8 runs on DET last night vs. their ace pitcher. Edwin is giving up a .322 average to LHH and .439 to RHH. You can stack 5 Royals anywhere from the high end of 4220 average per hitter down to 3640 per hitter.


CLEVELAND – Like I wrote above about Smeltzer I’ll be on both side of this. For the CLE stack side they are scoring 4.9 runs per game over the last week and hitting .264 as a team and rank 6th in our L10 game power rankings. You can get a 5 man stack for 4460 down to 3900, which is very affordable. Careful because Smeltzer could hold them in check but I could also seeing CLE dropping a 7 bomb on him. Just a stack to consider.


LA DODGERS vs. Robbie Ray – Anytime I can get that Dodgers around 4200 and under per hitter average for a 5 man stack I’m going to take it no matter who they are facing. Robbie Ray has a 4.12 ERA on the road – 1.33 whip- allowing a .240 average with the 14th ranked bullpen behind him. That’s good, NOT GREAT! You can stack the 5 most expensive Dodgers for a 4220 average and if you skip Belly Bombs you get it down to 3860 – that is insane! LAD rank 4th in our L10 game power rankings and scoring 5.0 runs per game. They are also 46-15 at home. The RED FLAG here is that vs. LHP their wRC+ drops from 112.4 down to a low 78.5.


SAN DIEGO PARDES vs. Freeland – Freeland throws batting practice in live games. He has a 7.24 ERA – 1.61 whip - .293 allowed batting average along with the 28th ranked bullpen behind him since July 1st. So yes he does throw in Coors so how does he line up on the road you ask? 4.91 ERA – 1.41 whip - .244 average – still not good. He is allowing a .292 average to RHH and .296 to LHH. You can 5 man stack the Padres anywhere from 4600 down to 3560. Freeland’s last two road starts he put up 17 DK points and then -12 DK points.


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