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NBA Sports Betting Picks for March 2nd!

NBA Sports Betting Report (March 2nd, 2020) from CheatSheetPros!


Back at it giving you some free plays and stats! Last article we posted we ended up 4-2. We hit the over in the CHI game, over in BKN game, Lakers under, Orlando +4.5 and then missed with CLE +8 (lost by 9, so close!) and we had Lakers -8 and somehow they got rolled by a terrible team that night.

Definitions & References:

O/E is offensive efficiency and that is how many points scored per 100 possessions.

D/E is defensive efficiency and that is how many points allowed per 100 possessions.


The Play: Houston -10.5

Our Model Projected Score: Houston 124 vs. NYK 111

ANALYSIS: So these teams just played on 2/24 and Houston was 123-112 so the spread is pretty close to the same setup as before. I will likely put Houston ML into a parlay as I much prefer that to laying double digit points. However, slight lean to Houston here. Houston is 5-0 post all-star break and 20-10 in games with a margin of 10+ points. The only reason I “lean” to the -10.5 here is Houston and their 3 point shooting. They are taking 51 3P attempts per game and that is a whopping 31.7 attempts MORE per game than the NYK and also #1 in the NBA. Houston is also 10% better from the FT line and 8.4 blocks and steals per game better than NYK. Our sheet doesn’t have it covering by enough points for a play so I’m calling this a “lean” because the stats are so one-sided. This is whatever Houston wants it to be.

The Play: Orlando -6.5

Our Model Projected Score: Orlando 125 vs. Portland 108

ANALYSIS: So the sheet has a play here on Orlando because they have them covering the spread pretty easily. So after looking at our model projected score I want to dive into the stats a little bit more and make a determination for myself. First I look at injuries and Lillard is out for this game so I check the on/off court numbers. With Lillard out they are 9.3 less points per game and still allow about the same on defense. Portland is also 1-5 post All-Star break and have lost 3 straight. Orlando is playing solid ball right now, hopefully Aaron Gordon can play tonight because he has been red hot as of late. With both D/E around the same number the O/E is largely in favor of Orlando with a 1.16 vs. 1.03 edge. Orlando also scoring 126.3 PPG which is 18.6 more than POR over the L3. Taking Orlando to cover at home vs. a 10-22 road team in Portland without their superstar on the court.

The Play: Milwaukee -4

Our Model Projected Score: Milwaukee 111 vs. Miami 116

ANALYSIS: So yes the NBA sheet has a play on Miami and has them winning at home vs. MIL. However, I’m not bucking MILW anymore! MILW is 52-8 on the year and 25-5 on the road and 5-0 post All-Star break and 9-1 in their L10 games. In games of 10+ points they are 35-4. I don’t know what happened to MIL last night in that 93-85 game but prior to that they pounded a good OKC team 133-86 and beat TOR 108-97. My personal rule is don’t buck the Bucks! MIL has a big rebounding edge and a huge D/E advantage. MIL has a D/E of 0.85 vs. 1.15 of Miami. Can’t buck the Bucks even with Miami’s 25-4 home record!

The Play: Indiana -2

Our Model Projected Score: Indiana 116 vs. Spurs 106

ANALYSIS: Indy is 4-1 post All-Star break and they have 3 wins in a row under their belt while Spurs are sliding at 3-7 in their L10 games and 2-2 since the break. We have our model with Indy winning by around 10 as a -2 favorite and I don’t mind it. With most of the stats being pretty close the two that jump out are the efficiency numbers. Indy has an O/E advantage 1.12 vs. 1.01 and a huge D/E boost 0.94 vs. 1.11. Indy all the way!

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Thank you for reading and good luck!



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