NBA Sports Betting Report (March 2nd, 2020) from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Back at it giving you some free plays and stats! Last article we posted we ended up 4-2. We hit the over in the CHI game, over in BKN game, Lakers under, Orlando +4.5 and then missed with CLE +8 (lost by 9, so close!) and we had Lakers -8 and somehow they got rolled by a terrible team that night.
Definitions & References:
O/E is offensive efficiency and that is how many points scored per 100 possessions.
D/E is defensive efficiency and that is how many points allowed per 100 possessions.
PLAYS TO CONSIDER:
The Play: Houston -10.5
Our Model Projected Score: Houston 124 vs. NYK 111
ANALYSIS: So these teams just played on 2/24 and Houston was 123-112 so the spread is pretty close to the same setup as before. I will likely put Houston ML into a parlay as I much prefer that to laying double digit points. However, slight lean to Houston here. Houston is 5-0 post all-star break and 20-10 in games with a margin of 10+ points. The only reason I “lean” to the -10.5 here is Houston and their 3 point shooting. They are taking 51 3P attempts per game and that is a whopping 31.7 attempts MORE per game than the NYK and also #1 in the NBA. Houston is also 10% better from the FT line and 8.4 blocks and steals per game better than NYK. Our sheet doesn’t have it covering by enough points for a play so I’m calling this a “lean” because the stats are so one-sided. This is whatever Houston wants it to be.
The Play: Orlando -6.5
Our Model Projected Score: Orlando 125 vs. Portland 108
ANALYSIS: So the sheet has a play here on Orlando because they have them covering the spread pretty easily. So after looking at our model projected score I want to dive into the stats a little bit more and make a determination for myself. First I look at injuries and Lillard is out for this game so I check the on/off court numbers. With Lillard out they are 9.3 less points per game and still allow about the same on defense. Portland is also 1-5 post All-Star break and have lost 3 straight. Orlando is playing solid ball right now, hopefully Aaron Gordon can play tonight because he has been red hot as of late. With both D/E around the same number the O/E is largely in favor of Orlando with a 1.16 vs. 1.03 edge. Orlando also scoring 126.3 PPG which is 18.6 more than POR over the L3. Taking Orlando to cover at home vs. a 10-22 road team in Portland without their superstar on the court.
The Play: Milwaukee -4
Our Model Projected Score: Milwaukee 111 vs. Miami 116
ANALYSIS: So yes the NBA sheet has a play on Miami and has them winning at home vs. MIL. However, I’m not bucking MILW anymore! MILW is 52-8 on the year and 25-5 on the road and 5-0 post All-Star break and 9-1 in their L10 games. In games of 10+ points they are 35-4. I don’t know what happened to MIL last night in that 93-85 game but prior to that they pounded a good OKC team 133-86 and beat TOR 108-97. My personal rule is don’t buck the Bucks! MIL has a big rebounding edge and a huge D/E advantage. MIL has a D/E of 0.85 vs. 1.15 of Miami. Can’t buck the Bucks even with Miami’s 25-4 home record!
The Play: Indiana -2
Our Model Projected Score: Indiana 116 vs. Spurs 106
ANALYSIS: Indy is 4-1 post All-Star break and they have 3 wins in a row under their belt while Spurs are sliding at 3-7 in their L10 games and 2-2 since the break. We have our model with Indy winning by around 10 as a -2 favorite and I don’t mind it. With most of the stats being pretty close the two that jump out are the efficiency numbers. Indy has an O/E advantage 1.12 vs. 1.01 and a huge D/E boost 0.94 vs. 1.11. Indy all the way!
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Thank you for reading and good luck!