NBA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NBA is changing throughout the day so if you are new to NBA DFS then you need to be ready to make pivotal moves 30 minutes prior to lock. Just another reminder if you are new that was post this NBA CheatSheet every Thursday in our “Free” Facebook group for people to try out. (Link is at the bottom of article.) I post it in the morning and then update and post it again 60-90 minutes prior to lock.
VALUE PLAYS:
It is difficult to project a low priced guy this early in the day. Most of the best value plays pop up inside that last hour prior to lock. I would suggest no matter what tools you are using that when finding a value play look at their FPPM (Fantasy Point Per Minute) production over the season and last 5 games. I see so many “value plays” that are chalky but the guy has a FPPM of 0.65 or 0.72 and they just don’t do anything. I prefer guys with a FPPM over 1.00 but at least over 0.90 at a minimum. Also, a GUARD/CENTER value play usually performs better than a random forward because they are more involved. That’s just my two cents.
MIAMI PLAYERS – Miami is short handed tonight so they will have a tight rotation and players will get a ton of minutes. My favorite is Tyler Herro and Kelly Olynk. Herro is coming off 44.3 DKPs and should have a 5-6x FLOOR tonight and Olynk is only 5300 and should be in the 30-40 DKP range tonight. Value Punts: Chris Silva / Previous Achiuwa are priced at 3000 and 3100 which is MIN and MIN plus 100 and both projected to get 30ish minutes tonight. How do you not hit value at MIN PRICE if you get 30 minutes? Take a shot!
HAMIDOU DIALLO – When I first built the Boom%/Bust% tool on our NBA cheatsheet as the request of the users this guy jumped out at me. I would sort by Boom% and then look at the yellow tier pricing (those are the cheap guys) and Diallo was the top one at 3500. He went off that night for 12x value and I got him at 2% ownership. So you can imagine the Boom% was a fun tool to play with and find value plays! Looking at the sheet today he is only 5300 so I’m looking for 25-30 points and he has put up 43.3 in back to back games – that is pushing 8x value people! If you don’t play SHAI then you have to have Diallo in those lineups because one of those guys is going to explode if not both!
MIDDLE RANGE “CORE PLAYS” TO CONSIDER:
When looking for these “middle range” guys to play or build around I’m using the NBA cheatsheet and sorting it by “Stud Index” and then looking at purple tier priced guys with an “Algo Score” over 80. I am also skipping over anyone if they have no 6x value games in the last 10 days because we want someone with some upside.
MALCOLM BROGDON – He is just over the “purple tier” in the pricing model but Oladipo is “doubtful” and with no Oladipo Malcolm Brogdon is a LOCK for me. His usage rate gesso from 24 up to 28 roughly. Malcolm Brogdon has been fire this year putting up a run of 3 games between 54-58 DKPs while Oladipo was on the court. His last two games were 45.5 and 43.5 which are both consistent but he should push that 50 DKP barrier without him on the floor.
SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER – He is in our purple pricing tier and this guy has been FIRE! I was shocked when I opened up the NBA cheatsheet today and saw his last 3 games were 55.0, 51.5 and 50.8 DKPs and he was priced at only 8000! Now he is projected to play tonight in a game as a +2.5 point dog and a decent 218 game total. Yes I’ll take some. Shai or Diallo in all my lines tonight, I’m sinking or swimming!
STUD TO PAY UP FOR TONIGHT:
KEVIN DURANT – Kyrie has already been ruled out tonight and he is priced under the 10k mark on DK at only 9400. Coming off a 58.3 DKP game he is in play tonight for one of our studs. His usage spikes from a solid 31.3 up to 36.0 without Kyrie. Lock and load play!
JAMES HARDEN – If John Wall is out tonight which is he Q right now with migraines then Harden is a solid play. Harden has a usage of around 25 with Wall on the floor and when he is off he is pushing low to mid 30’s. Harden is priced at 10,800 on DK and has been under 46 DKP across his last 4 so this might be a low owned slate breaker. Last year we saw Harden push 70-80 DKP in games he “took over”. Not a bad guy to spend up on with all this value! But if Wall is on the floor I have no interest in him.
DOMANTAS SABONIS – With Oladipo “doubtful” I love the idea of paying up for Sabonis. His usage jumps around 5 points with him off the court and Sabonis can break 60 DKPs and he is priced down to 9300 on DK tonight. GSW is also a huge pace up spot for them with a game total of 228!
EARLY CORE PLAYERS:
Kevin Durant – Monster with no Kyrie and priced under 10K.
Malcolm Brogdon or Sabonis – If Oladipo is out, he is “doubtful” currently.
Shai or Diallo – Both are monster value players that are under priced.
Dotson – Sexton ruled out Dotson should start and has put up 31.3 and 40.5 DKP in his last two games and priced at a low 5000.
DVP BREAKDOWN:
Our DVP breakdown will show you the projected pace of the game and we also added an indicator for "pace up" and "pace down" games. You can see total fantasy points allowed, fantasy points allowed to the position, % of total points and then the fantasy points for the players that are playing multiple positions. Not seen in this screen shot we also have the FG% allowed, real life points allowed and rebounds allowed to the position incase you want to be really sneaky.
TIERS CONTEST BREAKDOWN:
For the TIERS contest on DK we have added in ownership % for the players to help you make better decisions. You can also see the DKPs over the last 10 games, usage rates, FPPM comparisons for season over last 5 games, projection minutes and our own GPP algo model to help you pick the best players.
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Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze
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