NFL Daily Fantasy Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
STACKING FOR GPPS:
The stacking concept is simple. Most GPP winning lineups will have a team QB and usually at least 2 pass catchers and one from the opposing team. So that is a good start for building your lineups. Find your QB + 2 pass catchers + 1 run back player from the other team and fill in from there.
HOW DID WE DO IN LAST WEEKS ARTICLE?
C. Patterson – 4th highest scoring flex player with 34.6 DKP over 7x value!
Derrick Henry – Our “pay up for stud” with 177 total yards + TD for 28.7 DKP.
Najee Harris – 21.1 DKP for just over 3x value, not bad.
Terry McLaurin – 33.3 DKP for just under 5x value.
DJ Moore – 34.9 DKP for 5.3x value, was a favorite play of mine!
Kalif Raymond – 19.6 DKP for 4.5x value and <2% ownership dart paid off!
Mike Gesicki – 16.7 DKP for 4.2x value killing value!
Dawson Knox – 20.7 DKP for 5.8x value crushing value!
Dalton Schultz – 17.8 DKP for 5.2x value just smashing!
STACKS WE LIKE FOR THIS WEEK:
CASH STACKS - They are expensive but have a very high floor and highest average value. [TIP: Sort NFL Cheatsheet by Average Value per average points.]
Russell Wilson / DK Metcalf / Tyler Lockett + Cooper Kupp
Matthew Stafford / Cooper Kupp / Robert Woods + DK Metcalf
Kyler Murray / DeAndre Hopkins / A.J. Green + Deebo Samuel
Joe Burrow / Tee Higgins / Ja'Marr Chase + DaVante Adams
These are the top 4 that show up on the NFL sheet this week for cash stacks. Just providing the data the sheet is spitting out you decide if you like it or not because it's your money that you are putting on the line! But we do wish you the best of luck!
GPP STACKS - These are high upside stacks that leave you a bunch of money to fill in your lineups with STUDS! They are fun to build but also reserved for only GPP because they could also sink you and put you in last place! [TIP: The NFL sheet sorted by average targets per dollar value is the best way to find these. Targets = Fantasy Point Opportunities!]
Mac Jones / Jakobi Meyers / Nelson Agholor + Brandon Cooks
Jacoby Brissett / DeVante Parker / Jaylen Waddle + Mike Evans
Carson Wentz / Michael Pittman / Parris Campbell + Marquise Brown
These are the 3 that jump out when sorting by the target value and I don't mind them for GPP but worry about NE and their ability to shut down the opponent WR-1 so maybe pivoting off Cooks is sneaky and cheap!
CHEAP AF STACKS! How fun are these when you have so much money left you can just load your lineup with the top players on the slate! [TIP: Sort by "Cost of Stack" and just simply find the cheapest shit you can put together and throw at the wall and hope some of it sticks or goes off! Again, GPP only!]
GPP STACKS WITH LINEUP SHELLS:
Let's take a look at some GPP stacks and the shell lineups so we can see what we can do to fill in the holes! For purposes of this article I'm going to assume a random $2,700 defense and just use Chargers but you can move up or down depending on how you want to build your lineup!
So let's start by looking at a MIA stack with Jacoby Brissett. This stack is cheap and leaves $6,425 left per player to fill in your holes. Now you have a lot of wiggle room here as this is $25,700 for 4 players. Tampa Bay allows only 47.5 rushing yards per game (mainly because teams are throwing on them) and they are allowing the most passing yards per game at 327.5 which ranks (32nd). The signing of Sherman should help but still want to throw a dart here for GPP. Tampa ranks 25th vs. the TE so I went Gesicki over Waddle as in the prior screen shot. Chris Godwin is also $500 cheaper than Evans if you want to pivot and save some money.
You can take that lineup and go RB HEAVY with Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara and Perine (if he is the starter this week). I'm not calling these "hot plays" just showing you how everything fits into the lineup. This leave you to find a $4,100 value play or $4,600 if you prefer to use Godwin.
Here you can take the value RB with Damien Williams and add Austin Ekeler and a solid WR in DJ Moore and still have $5,000 left over for any flex player you choose. The main thing I want to point out is with EXTRA CASH there are SO MANY POSSIBILITIES!
Here is another shell that I like leaving your $26,000 on the table for 4 players. Prior to last week Derek Carr had put up 28, 27.2 and 25.2 DKP in the first 3 weeks of the season which is almost 5x, over 4x and over 4x value. Ruggs and Renfroe chap pivots off Waller and one of them has outscored Waller every week after Week 1. Love the run back with Mooney who Justin Fields apparently loves throwing to over Allen Robinson. Mooney had 21.5 DKP last week vs. only 9.3 to A-Rob, Mooney also lead targets last week 7 to 3. Take a shot on Mooney with the run back option.
So the reason for this stack is simple these teams allow the 23rd and 30th most passing yards per game at 267 and 312. They are both solid against the run as they are only allowing 91.5 and 106 rushing yards per game that ranks 8th and 13th best in the NFL. When we dig further looking at yards per carry allowed they come in at 9th and 5th for 3.9 and 3.5 ypc. So why not an air raid shootout? It's possible, I mean the stats point that way. If Derrick Henry is 30% owned as projected why not pivot off and if it does become a passing game the Henry owners eat a small 2x value and you can take advantage of the lower priced options. Shenault is a MUST OWN for me in this stack as he was peppered with targets and caught 6 of 7 for 99 yards in what felt like a quarter of play.
Here is a DEEP DIVE DART! Did you know Daniel Jones threw for 402 yards last week? I didn't and was blown away when stat diving which is my favorite part about Sunday night/Monday morning. He has even rushed for 27, 39, 95 and 27 yards over the first 4 weeks giving him a nice little floor! Golladay was paid so much money to be the WR-1 I can only assume his targets are here to stay. He went 6 of 7 last week for 116 yards. John Ross is a long ball "stretch the defense" specialist who got 4 targets last week and caught 3 for 77 yards and a TD. He is someone that can easily hit value with a long TD catch at only $3,400. Run back with CeeDee Lamb or Amari Cooper. Now the fun part! You have $7,000 per player for 3 spots to fill or $21,000 total.
You could run Derrick Henry + Alvin Kamara and have $3,400 left over for a decent mid-TE play. You could run a mid-line with Austin Ekeler + James Robinson + Darren Waller, etc. You notice I went ahead and left Shenault in there for fun because he is cheap and should get peppered!
PLAYERS WE LIKE THIS WEEK:
DERRICK HENRY - He is in the nose bleed pricing this week at $9,000 on DK but has put up a 50 DKP game and coming off 28.7 DKP so that is 3x to around 5.5x value so he continues to be a solid "stud" if you want to pay up for him. You can't argue with a guy getting 28-35 carries each week, the volume is nuts!
AUSTIN EKELER - He is much more affordable at $7,600 on DK and coming off a solid 32.5 DKP game where he rushed for 117 yards and caught 3 balls for another 28 yards and had a rushing AND receiving touchdown! His prior two weeks were 22.7 and 22.5 DKP giving you almost a 3x floor for the poor mans Alvin Kamara wanna be! He is at home this weekend against a tough CLE run defense but CLE also ranks 20th vs. pass catching RBs so his PPR upside on DK will make him hit value.
EZEKIEL ELLIOTT - NYG are giving up 4.5 yards per carry which ranks 20th and 122.8 rushing yards per game (20th) so they are in the bottom 3rd of run defenses. Zeke at only $7,000 on DK needs 3x to be a steady force and he has 23.3, 26.6 and 17.7 DKP over the last 3 weeks so while his ceiling is limited with Lamb, Cooper, Schultz and Dak he should still get his 3x. Love for cash games but will own less of him in GPPs due to this.
JAMES ROBINSON - He is only $6,000 so if you want to pivot down and save a little money he is a decent target. You need 18-24 DKP for 3x to 4x value. He had 20.6 last week and 25.4 the week prior after a poor 8 and 9 DKP in the first two weeks. In the last two games he has 165 rushing yards, 44 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns against ARI and CIN who are decent defenses.
JAMES CONNER - At only $5,600 you can have a piece of this Arizona backfield. Conner has 18 and 11 carries the last two weeks and while he isn't involved in the passing game as much he is the red zone pounder! He has 4 fucking touchdowns in the last 2 weeks (2 each week). He has also put up 20.6 and 18.3 DKPs which is around 4x and 3x value. My word!
DAMIEN WILLIAMS - Likely the chalkiest value play this week will be Williams at only $5,600 taking the place of David Montgomery who will be out around 4 weeks. Surprisingly I was able to pick him up off waivers in season long without having a top 3 waiver. I would use him in DFS but be careful of the ownership because he is the hot potatoe everyone is excited to see this week.
DAMIEN HARRIS - Now let's talk about someone NO ONE will own! Last week he had 4 rushing attempts for -4 yards and put up 4.6 DKP. The prior week 3.1 DKP. Now those were against Tampa and NO but when we look back to Week 1 he had 23 carries for 100 yards against Miami and even 3 targets. Now he gets to face the pourus HOUSTON defense that is allowing 137 rushing yards per game (28th) and giving up 4.5 yards per carry (20th). If he can pop this weekend he won't the rest of the year!
SAMAJE PERINE - Watch the status of Joe Mixon because is Perine gets that nod he would be very valuable at only $4,000 on DK. I mean he only needs 12 DKP for 3x value so that's chalk I would eat all day. 60 rushing yards and 3 catches for 30 yards is a floor for him.
DJ MOORE - Did you follow our article last week when we told you to play Moore? He went off for 8 catches 113 yards and 2 touchdowns for 34.9 DKPs! Highlight of my DFS day for sure! Going right back to him as the clear WR-1 in a touch matchup vs. CAR that was exposed last week by Dallas. Will CAR turn it around or are they sliding down the ranks? With 12, 12 and 11 targets I'm taking a shot!
DIONTAE JOHNSON - Likewise for our other target hog Diontae who has played in weeks 1, 2 and 4 and had 13, 12 and 10 targets. He did not play in Week 3 but in the last 2 played weeks he has 24.2 and 22.5 DKPs and Pittsburgh is apparently not as good as everyone thought so now they are throwing a ton. If Claypool is out this week he might be a high owned play against a tough Denver secondary.
JAKOBI MEYERS - My word he has 12 and 14 targets the last two weeks and caught 8 and 9 balls for 70 and 94 yards. If this guy can find the endzone that is a huge return on his low $5,600 salary!
A.J. GREEN - Yes I know there are a lot of mouths to feed in 'Zona but he is getting a solid 6 targets a game from an elite QB. Last week he had 5 catches for 67 yards and a TD and the prior week he also had 5 catches for 112 yards. That is 17.7 and 19.2 DKPs and with a price tag of only $5,100 that is 3x and pushing 4x! There will be a huge game at some point this season just make sure you have a couple shares when it comes!
LAVISKA SHENAULT - With no DJ Chark he should get a ton of targets and play the majority of snaps because now they NEED him! He was peppered last week he Chark was out and caught 6 of 7 for 99 yards. His price tag of $4,800 is definitely going to start climbing as he should be a $5,500-$6,500 receiver so eat it up while he is still low!
DARNELL MOONEY - Loves these cheap guys and as you read in the stacks above Justin Fields loves Mooney and is seeking him out. He had 5 catches last week on 7 targets for 125 yards and only $4,700 so I'm definitely taking a shot on him! Allen Robinson only had 3 targets last week and is $800 more expensive.
RANDALL COBB - If you need a complete PUNT for almost MIN PRICE then I don't mind Cobb at $4,000. He caught 5 of 6 targets last week for 69 yards but also had 2 touchdowns which will likely be rare for him but still 5 balls for 70 is 12 DKPs and 3x value and if he caught 1 touchdown that is 4.5x value. Aaron Rodgers loves him and wanted him signed and he got what he wanted so he will be involved and get his 4-6 targets per game.
JOHN ROSS - As discussed in the stacks he is only $3,400 (near min price) and got 4 targets last week. He is the deep ball threat so you are basically punting with him but hoping he catches a long touchdown and then he will crush value. He caught 3 last week for 77 yards and a TD for 16.7 DKP which is pushing 5x value!
GEORGE KITTLE - Assuming season long owners are frustrated you can attempt to snag him on the cheap. He does have 20 targets over the last 2 weeks so his yards will catch up. Last week he only caught 4 of the 11 targets but love seeing the 11 targets. His price tag was $6,300 then $6,400 and now it's slid all the way down to $5,600 so love the price point because he will have a blow up game for 8 catches 100+ yards and 1-2 touchdowns. In Week 3 he had 7 of 9 for 92 yards for 17.1 DKP so that's 3x by itself. I also like the savings off Waller of almost $1,700.
DALTON SCHULTZ - 15 targets split over the last 2 weeks with 17.8 and 26 DKPs priced at a low $4,400. Yes, don't mind chasing the points in a mind field of tight ends!
MIKE GESICKI - Slightly cheaper at $4,200 he has 16.7 and 18.6 DKP the last two weeks and Brissett has chemistry with him so look for that to continue while he is the starting QB. In Week 3 Gesicki went nuts with 10 catches on 12 targets and they are playing Tampa Bay so they will likely be down and throwing the entire second half.
JARED COOK - If you need to "punt" and absolutely don't have any extra money you can slide in Jared Cook. He caught 6 of 7 last week for 70 yards and a score but that is a rare occasion. His likely outcome is 1x-2x value but has 5x upside.
ADVANCED DVP STATS:
As always I wanted to toss up the advanced DVP stats for the week and the weekly target breakdown for everyone.
WEEKLY TARGET CHART - UPDATED WEEKS 1 - WEEK 4:
Weekly target chart for average targets per game and week by week breakdown. See the full list on the NFL cheatsheet. One guy we didn't talk about is Jamison Crowder who got 9 targets in his first game back and priced under $5,000. Shhhh don't tell anyone!
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Thanks for reading & good luck!