NFL Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
NFL was crazy last week with Russell Wilson getting shut down by the Rams, DK Metcalf didn’t have a target until the 3rd quarter and James Conner continues to disappear with only 13 carries for 36 yards. Ravens lose a game to the struggling Patriots in a monsoon of rain. What could possible happen this week?
STACKING FOR GPPS:
The stacking concept is simple. Most GPP winning lineups will have a team QB and usually at least 2 pass catchers and one from the opposing team. So that is a good start for building your lineups. Find your QB + 2 pass catchers + 1 run back player from the other team and fill in from there.
TEAM STACKS WE LIKE THIS WEEK:
Watson / Cooks / Fuller & Jakobi Meyers - Stack is very affordable with upside. Houston is passing 62% of the time and they can't run the ball with that 29th ranked O-Line. Outside of last week Watson has 24 DKP for each of the last 5 weeks and a high of 35 DKP. Cooks and Fuller are eating up all the targets in this offense. Cobb has 5 and 3 over the last two weeks but that does not compare to the 18 and 14 from Cooks and Fuller. Running it back with Jakobi Meyers is great as he is only 4900 and is the favorite target right now for Cam Newton. He has 35 TARGETS OVER THE LAST 3 WEEKS and priced at only 4900. I typically stick in a semi-punt defense around 2500ish to see how much money I have left. With 6,200 per person left you can easily get a high-end guy like Dalvin Cook at 9,000 and then still have 5,266 for the other spots. If you want to punt the TE you can get a Dalvin Cook and DaVante Adams in there and still have 4700 left for your RB2.
Tua / Parker / Grant & Hamler - Let me start with our algo having Miami projected to score 28.7 points which is higher than the 24 Vegas in projecting. What excites me about this stack is that it is DIRT CHEAP! There is 7,250 per player left over, that is a fun lineup to fill! I mean you can use Dalvin Cook + Aaron Jones + DaVante Adams and still have 4,200 left for the TE or go cheaper TE and upgrade the DEF. Miami has put up 29, 34 and 28 points over the last 3 weeks. Hamler I was riding with because he is only 3,600 and he has put up 9, 15 and 10.3 DKP the last 3 weeks. Jerry Jeudy has a tougher matchup this week and Miami has an elite pass D so taking a shot on a lower guy is my preference.
Alex Smith / McKissic / McLaurin & Tyler Boyd - Are you aware that Alex Smith has thrown for 390 and 325 yards over the last two weeks? I was not. He has put up 19 and 17 DKP in those games so that is over 3x value and pushing 4x. CIN has the 29th rated pass defense and WAS is throwing at a 63% clip. I don't mind running this back with any of the CIN WRs as Tee Higgins has been a beast, AJ Green is near min pricing but I chose Tyler Boyd because the slot matchup is the best way to attack WAS. I chose McKissic here because he is the safety net for Alex smith with 15 targets last week and 14 targets the week prior. He has 35 DKP combined for the last two weeks and 5,200 is a cheap RB spot giving you a good floor. Mc'Scoring is the clear WR-1 on the team and has 9, 8, 11 and 12 targets the last 4 games and 18, 27, 22 and 15 DKPs to go along with it. CIN also can't run the ball with the 30th O-Line and a 63% pass rate so good change for a shootout here!
GPP Only Stacks:
Wentz / Reagor / Goedert & Landry
Mayfield / Landry / Higgins & Reagor
If you want a lower owned GPP stack I would consider both sides of this game. Vegas opened this at 45.5 and has moved up to 47. PHI is passing at a 64% clip. Both of these teams are PROJECTED for less points than the opponent is ALLOWING PER GAME so there is our "Room for Upside" indicator that pops up on our cheatsheet. Reagor is cheap at only 4300 and had 7 targets last week, Landry is the default WR-1 now and both QBs are in the 5000 range. Not my favorite stacks but if you are trying to edge out the field I think both of these builds will free up a ton of money for STUDS to be filled in and there is a chance this game turns into a shootout.
PLAYERS TO FILL IN WITH YOUR STACKS:
DALVIN COOK (9000) - Dallas has the 28th rated rushing defense and MIN is a premier rushing offense with over 150 rushing yards per game. If MIN starts running the ball and it's working we have seem them stick to this for the entire game and chew up clock and yards. If you are paying up it's hard not to like Cook this week. In our "Trenches" section on the cheatsheet you have MIN with the 2nd best OLine vs. 30th D-Line in Dallas, second level yards is 2nd vs. 25th and runs of 10+ yards is 4th vs. 22nd. Last time we saw this matchup Dalvin went nuts and had multiple touchdowns.
DAVANTE ADAMS (8600) - He is expensive for this matchup so I think he may go under owned. Adams has 20, 36, 30 and 48 DKP over the last 4 weeks including 12, 12, 11 and 16 targets.
KEENAN ALLEN (7400) - 7, 11, 12 and 13 targets the last 4 weeks with over 21 DKP in 3 of the last 4 games. Now he is going to get a home game vs. the NYJ who rank 28th vs. WR-1 and 31st vs. WR-2 and did I mention they rank DEAD LAST in deep pass coverage? I might have a Herbert / Allen / Williams stack for cash games since they have no running game.
D'ANDRE SWIFT (6400) - If you don't want to spend 9000 on Dalvin Cook this week then I don't mind some of this low-mid RBs. Swift has looked awesome and his carries have grown over the last 3 weeks from 6 to 13 to 16 last week where he logged 81 yards and also caught all 5 passing targets for another 68 yards and even scored a TD on his way to 25.9 DKP. CAR is the 25th rushing defense and 28th vs. pass catching RBs and DET has a big boost in runs of 10+ yards as they rank 13rd and CAR is 30th in allowing them. If they continue to give him the volume it's hard not to see him crushing value again.
DIONTAE JOHNSON (5900) - He is cheap and getting WR-1 target volume in an offense that has apparently forgot how to run the ball. Johnson has 11, 10 and 15 targets in 3 of the last 4 games (he left hurt in the other game) and has put up 26.6, 14 and 29 DKP. So he is easily pushing 4x-5x value if he can stay healthy and stay in the game. JuJu is 500 more expensive and Claypool is 200 more expensive. I like all 3 WRs this week but prefer Johnson.
J.D. MCKISSIC (5200) - I can't pass up on a RB that is getting this much target volume on a PPR website like DK. 15 targets last week and 14 targets the week prior. He can catch 5 balls for 50 yards and get 2x value and hit 10 points. he has 17.9 and 17.2 over the last two weeks. He is also getting anywhere from 4-8 carries per game on top of it. He has a great floor for cash games with some upside.
JAKOBI MEYERS (4900) - He is a great piece for cash games as he is getting massive WR-1 volume and priced under 5000. Last week was a monsoon weather game and he still got 7 targets and ended with 5 for 59 yards. His prior two games when he started to separate himself he had 12 catches on 14 targets and 6 catches on 10 targets. Houston will score and NE should try to keep pace if they don't have their running game take off.
COREY DAVIS (4800) - Baltimore is a tough matchup as they hold the 10th best passing defense. However, they are 24th vs. the WR-2 so if A.J. Brown gets slowed down by this defense Davis could get a few extra looks. He also has a really low floor as we saw when he faced Chicago two weeks ago and had 0 catches on 3 targets. But he also had 10 targets and scored a TD vs. a tough PIT defense. GPP play.
MICHAEL PITTMAN JR (4500) - When we get down to this low-mid 4000 range there is always some risk. Pittman has 7 and 8 targets the last two weeks and is coming off a 7 catch 101 yard performance that was good for 22.2 DKP. That is around 5x value!
JAKEEM GRANT (3500) - He moved into the WR-2 role for the Dolphins after the Preston Williams injury and caught 4 balls on 5 targets for 43 yards and a score.
Thanks for reading,