NFL Week 4 Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
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PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR YOUR LINEUPS:
Last week we started up the ALGO plays again so in this write up I’m going to focus on some of the top ALGO plays and break them down. There will be a screen shot and some information at the bottom on lineup building with using core algo plays and how they did last week running just 10 lineups.
DAK PRESCOTT (6300):
ALGO SCORE/RANK: 116.6 – top overall QB for this week.
VEGAS TOTAL: 47.0
FANTASY PPG: 29.5 points per game, almost 5x average.
DEFENSIVE GRADE: Facing the Saints who have the 25th passing defense and rank 26th and 27th vs. WR1 and WR2’s so far this year.
GAME SCRIPT: With a -2.5 spread this could be a back and forth game so I would class this as a positive game script for Dak.
BREAKDOWN NOTES: All 3 WRs for Dallas have a positive grade vs. CB matchup. P.J. Williams is the lowest graded CB for the Saints and covers the slot on 89% of snaps (per PFF) and Randall Cobb plays 88% of the time in the slot.
CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY (8800):
ALGO SCORE/RANK: 97.5 – Top RB this week per ALGO.
VEGAS TOTAL: 47.5
FANTASY PPG: 28.0 FPPG which is around 3x value on average.
DEFENSIVE GRADE: HOU has the 14th rated rush def and 18th rated pass defense and they are the 5th toughest vs. RBs catching balls out of the backfield.
GAME SCRIPT: With a +4.5 point spread and the volume CMC will get he is definitely in play and has a solid floor.
BREAKDOWN NOTES: Volume and touches for CMC are insane. The matchup is tough but I don’t think he will have any problems returning value.
EVAN ENGRAM (5700):
ALGO SCORE/RANK: 91.4 – Top TE for us this week.
VEGAS TOTAL: 49.5
FANTASY PPG: 22.9 points per game, just over 4x value.
DEFENSIVE GRADE: WAS has the 27th ranked pass defense and they are 23rd at covering the TE position.
GAME SCRIPT: With a -3 spread he should see plenty of targets and I doubt NYG are blowing anyone would so he stays with a positive game script.
BREAKDOWN NOTES: Putting up 31.6, 11 and 26 DK points he is returning monster value on a consistent basis. He has 30 targets through 3 games!
KEENAN ALLEN (7600):
ALGO SCORE/RANK: 96.0 – Top ALGO WR this week.
VEGAS TOTAL: 44.0
FANTASY PPG: 31.2 points per game, roughly 4x value.
DEFENSIVE GRADE: MIA is terrible with a 32nd rated pass defense and 31st at covering the WR-1.
GAME SCRIPT: With a spread of -15.5 this is a negative game script for KA. We want a team to be down and throwing the ball and they will likely be up and killing the clock.
BREAKDOWN NOTES: Allen should be able to return value this week. He runs 55% of his routes through the slot and Chris Lammons is the slot cover corner on 95% of plays. He is one of PFF lowest graded CBs. He is also targeted on 26% of the routes run in his direction which is 33% more than the other two CBs.
TOP 3 PLAYER ALGO RANKS PER POSITION:
QUARTER BACKS:
1. Dak Prescott
2. Russell Wilson
3. Patrick Mahomes
RUNNING BACKS:
1. Christian Mccaffrey
2. Austin Ekeler
3. Chris Carson
WIDE RECEIVERS:
1. Keenan Allen
2. Amari Cooper
3. Tyler Boyd
4. Tyler Lockett
5. Sammy Watkins
TIGHT ENDS:
1. Evan Engram
2. Darren Waller
3. Travis Kelce
4. Will Dissly
OTHER MATCHUP PLAYERS WE LIKE:
STERLING SHEPARD – Playing 61% of snaps in the slot and Jimmy Moreland is covering the slot 87% of the time. He is also giving up an 86% catch rate and a whopping 0.51 fantasy points per route!
COOPER KUPP – Playing 72% of the time in the slot and holding a nice 80% catch rate he will face M.J. Stewart who covers the slot 94% of the time for Tampa. He is giving up a 79% catch rate and 0.50 fantasy points per route!
TYLER BOYD – 70% of his routes are run out of the slot and Mike Hilton covers the slot 97% of the time. He is a decent corner but gives up a 74% catch rate and 0.42 fantasy points per route.
PRESTON WILLIAMS – He is 6’4” and 210 lbs. He is primarily playing on the left side of the field (68% of routes) and will see coverage from Brandon Facyson more than half the time. He is allowing a 73% catch rate and 0.44 fantasy points per route. Preston Williams caught my eye with a 24% target rate on his routes run and 0.42 fantasy points per route. Cheap GPP dart!
LARRY FITZ – 79% of his routes have been ran out of the slot. He holds a solid 65% catch rate and 0.34 fantasy points per route run. Seattle doesn’t have a specific CB that is always in the slot like the players mentioned above but Jamar Taylor has the highest coverage percentage over the slot on his team. He is allowing a 71% catch rate and 0.44 fantasy points per route run. He is also a bottom 5 CB per PFF.
TERRY MCLAURIN – Remember Mike Evans last week? Let me remind you! 15 targets, 8 catches for 190 yards and 3 touchdowns! He made Janoris Jenkins look terrible! Terry McLaurin should see plenty of JJ this week. McLaurin plays 55% on the same side that Jenkins covers 75% of the time. McLaurin has a 67% catch rate and a whopping 0.50 fantasy points per route run which is highest on his team.
STACKS TO CONSIDER FOR GPP AND CASH GAMES:
WASHINGTON: KEENUM/TERRY MCLAURIN – Keenum will have to air it out to keep up with Danny Dimes because Gallman isn’t going to do anything on the ground. WAS is 9th best at fantasy points to the RB position so I’m assuming NYG will air it out since WAS in 28th vs. QB and 32nd vs. WRs for fantasy points. NYG (mentioned below) are also a solid stack but will be chalky and WAS should be much lower owned. NYG are 29th vs. Fantasy Points to QBs and 31st vs. Fantasy points to WRs. So why not some Keenum and Terry McLaurin? Keenum is only $4,900 and had put up 30, 17 and 20 DK points (great value)! Terry McLaurin only $4,500 has put up 26.5, 17 and 19 DK points with 24 targets in only 3 games for 16 catches and 3 touchdowns. First WR in history to start his career with 5+ catches and a TD in each of his first 3 games. Good GPP stack and could be a diamond if this games becomes a shootout because neither team can play defense.
SEATTLE: RUSSELL WILSON/TYLER LOCKETT/WILL DISSLY – Wilsons last two games he has tossed for 300 and 406 yards and 5 touchdowns putting up 28 and 44 DK points and only priced at $6,100 on the week. Lockett has 26 targets in those two games putting up 21 catches for just over 230 yards and a touchdown. He is priced at $6,300. Add in Dissly who is only $3,600 in a week where everyone is going to go with Engram, Kelce and Waller and you have yourself a solid stack to sweat. Dissley has 12 targets producing 11 catches for 112 yards and 3 touchdowns in the last two games. Cheap stack!
GIANTS: DANNY DIMES/SHEPARD/EVAN ENGRAM – This will be chalky but likely a chunk of my cash game lineup. WAS is 28th vs. QBs and 32nd vs. WRs. He surprised the world last week with a 112.7 passer rating going 23 of 36 for 36 yards and two TDs. Oh and he also ran for 28 yards and 2 more TDs putting up 39.2 DK points. Tampa Bay was 9th vs. QBs and 8th vs. WRs and Danny Dimes shredded them and now he gets a weaker defense and no Saquon to lean on? Look for another 300+ yards and 3 TDs! Shepard came back to 9 targets catching 7 of them for 100 yards and a TD (added another 21 rushing yards) and Evan Engram caught 6 of 8 targets for 113 and a TD. One of those was a long catch and run boosting up his yardage. Pair Danny Dimes with one or both!
DETROIT: STAFFORD/TJ HOCKENSON – DET is pulling some wins out of their a$$ this year! They have a solid pass defense but KC will tear them apart. Mahomes has never played on turf before so his already blazing fast WRs are going to get even faster this week! DET will have to play catch up and throw a lot to stay in the game and Stafford is priced at a low $5,500 this week and should be lower owned. He has 45, 30 and 32 passing attempts so far this year with blah results. KC has been pretty solid vs. the run but rank 21st vs. QBs and 13th vs. WRs. However, KC falls down to 28th vs. the TE position. Big game for T.J. Hockenson? Who knows but worth a shot in a favorable game script with DET playing at home and the crowd behind them! Ok one more quick note. TJ had a big week 1 game vs. ARI who is dead last vs. TEs. They he had a dud vs. LAC who are 10th best vs. TE and then PHI is weak vs. the TE and dropped a TD pass. Now he gets another ARI type defense. Get him on the cheap at only $3,300 and take a shot!
LINEUP BUILDING PROCESS:
So I recommend locking in the top 4 CORE ALGO players from the NFL CheatSheet and then running 10 lineups. I went back and took the top 4 from our algo last week and ran 10 lineups based off pre-week projections. The lowest lineup scored 152 points on DK and the highest (see screen shot below) was a solid 232 DK points. The top 4 were: DAK, COOPER, EVAN, CMC. (Pretty close to the same plays this week.) I’m going to core those players in and run 10 more and see how we do. Typically last year I would pick 2 of the top 5 QBs (per algo), and 4 of the top 8 RBs and 6-8 of the top 12 WRs and use that narrow player pool to run lineups.
WR/CB MATCHUP CHART: I’ve followed the PFF WR/CB matchup chart for years. Take it as part of your research and not the only thing. I see people basing all their lineup decisions off this chart that is floating around. You have to understand that if a player is at a certain position 50% of the snaps and the CB is there 50% that doesn’t mean that he will always line up against that CB. That CB may only cover him 20-25% of the time. Where you can use the chart for value is looking at someone who plays 80%+ in the same spot matched up against a CB who plays 80%+ on that side of the field or that position. Too many people are putting faith in something that is random.
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