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NFL Wild Card Round Picks!


NFL Wild Card Round Picks from CheatSheetPros!


QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

Hopefully you got to watch our video last week as we gave you some sneaky plays with Michael Gallup who scored 3 TDs and was the highest scoring WR on the slate. We were also all over Lazard at only $4k who put up 16.9 DKP for just over 4x value. Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown was our favorite stack and they ended up having a solid day too!


YouTube Video of this article is here: https://youtu.be/Xf3OILuh_V0


GAME by GAME PLAYERS TO CONSIDER:

BUFFALO @ HOUSTON

VEGAS BREAKDOWN: Line opened at Buffalo +3 and now +2.5 while the total has slid up a point from 41.5 to 42.5. 90% of the tickets are on the over and 71% on the Bills spread. Our algo has this as a tight game with a 21.5 to 21.3 projected score. The key factor here the sports betting line is Buffalo -3.5 so this line will continue to move to Buffalo.

BETTING PICK by CheatSheetPros: Buffalo +2.5 or +3 if you can find it or moneyline.


FANTASY PICKS:

Josh Allen (6500) is in a smash spot as the Texans are the giving up the 31st most points to QBs at 24.5 and the Texans pass defense DVOA is rated 26th. Houston went from allowing 388 total yards per game to a whopping 444 over the last 3 games.

John Brown (6000) is a great WR to pair with Josh Allen as he has been the most consistent WR in Buffalo.


Devin Singletary (6000) also has a smash spot as Texans are giving up the 26th most points to the RB position and hold the 22nd rush defense DVOA. What really jumps out at me here is that Houston was allowing 121 rushing yards per game on the year but jumped out to a whopping 171 rushing yards per game over the last 3! Texans are also 27th vs. pass catching RBs.


DeShaun Watson (6400) isn’t a terrible pick but not my favorite play on this wild card slate and should only be used in GPPs. He is facing the 5th rated DVOA pass defense and Buffalo ranks a solid #2 vs. WR-1 and 4th vs. WR-1. So I’m off Hopkins this week at 7700 unless you are game stacking. I think Will Fuller (4900) would be better to pair with Watson.


TITANS @ PATRIOTS

VEGAS BREAKDOWN: Line opened at TEN +5.5 and now down to +4.5 and the total has not moved as it opened at 43.5 and still 43.5. Tickets are split between the total and the sides so nothing big here. Sports betting algo has this as pretty much the same line as the Vegas open. We have this projected with Patriots 26 vs. Titans 22. Get the +4.5 before it goes to 4.

BETTING PICK by CheatSheetPros: TITANS +4.5 (also like a small bet on moneyline)


FANTASY PICKS:

Ryan Tannehill (6300), A.J. Brown (7400) & Jonnu Smith (3800) are in a tough spot vs. this Patriots defense that ranks #1 DVOA vs. the pass, #6 DVOA vs. the run and #1 vs. WR-1 and WR-2. However, NE just gave up 320 passing yards to Fitzmagic and allowed DeVante Parker to go 8 for 137 yards in a game they NEEDED TO WIN! The Pats soft schedule is starting to show up as they were only allowing 275 total yards per game and that has jumped to 324 over the last 3 games.


Derrick Henry (8200) is a little expensive but I don’t mind him this week due to the small slate. Titans are rushing for 138.9 yards per game (3rd best in NFL) and the Pats are allowing 95.5. Henry is the primary rushing back for the Titans so he should be able to get over 100 yards and a score this week. Henry has put up 42, 9, 27, 27, 32, 36 and 25 DKP in recent contest. He has 18+ carries in his last 6 games and has only been under 100 yards once in those contest. He is also over 149 yards in 4 of those 6! We just can’t fade that kind of volume and production no matter who they are facing!


Tom Brady (5800) is priced fair this week in a tougher matchup. Titans are allowing 255 passing yards per game (24th) and allowing 20.7 PPG (12th) so it’s not like they are going to shut the Pats out. The key here is that Brady doesn’t run so you have to pair him with a WR and Julian Edelman (6500) is the best choice as Titans are 28th vs. WR-1s.


Sony Michel (4600) is priced way too low for his recent volume. He has 18, 21 and 19 carries in the L3 contest for 74, 96 and 89 yards. Where can you get a $4.6k RB with that kind of volume?


BUFFALO @ HOUSTON

VEGAS BREAKDOWN: Line opend at Saints -8 and still -8 while the total has jumped from 47 at open to 48.5. 64% of the tickets are on the Saints while 75% are on the over.

BETTING PICK by CheatSheetPros: Hard Pass. Saints on a teaser is my pick.


FANTASY PICKS:

Kirk Cousins (6100) – You want a low owned QB? Take Cousins, he is known for not being able to win the big game and facing a tough Saints defense that is allowing only 333 total yards per game (11th) best. The key here is that I’m fading Dalvin Cook (7800) as I think he is priced too high for the 5th rated rush defense DVOA and Saints are allowing the 6th least amount of fantasy points per game to the RB position. I just don’t think Dalvin can smash here and 2.0-2.5x might be his ceiling. So MIN should be down and if they can’t run they need to THROW THE BALL! Saints are allowing the 4th least amount of rushing yards per game at 91.3 but rank 20th in passing yards per game at 241.8. Pair Cousins with an


Adam Thielen (6200) who should get more targets after having a little time under his belt in a must-win game. Stefon Diggs (6600) is also pretty cheap and has the ceiling for that monster game.


Drew Brees (6600) – Yes please! You always want to stack a WR with a QB and Michael Thomas (9300) is expensive but Minny is 21st vs. WR-1 coverage AND they are allowing the 24th most fantasy points to the WR position. Vikings coverage vs. TE ranks #1 so I also am going to fade Jared Cook (4900) and look toward Tre-Quan Smith (4000). If you take out the game last week where Michael Thomas had 9 targets but only 4 catches for 37 yards you have 3 monster games where he put up 34.6 – 33.8 – 33.4 and had 17, 12 and 15 targets with a whopping 126, 128 and 134 yards.


SEATTLE @ PHILLY

VEGAS BREAKDOWN: Line opened at Seattle -1 and now -1.5 while the total has gone from 45.5 to 46. 84% of the tickets are on Seattle. Sports betting line is Seattle -3 so I expect this line to continue to move toward Seattle until we hit -3. Our algo has this projected score at Philly winning 25 to 24 so gladly going to take the points!

BETTING PICK by CheatSheetPros: Going against public here with Eagles +1.5 (hold out for +3)


FANTASY PICKS:

Russell Wilson (6800) has 40 DKP upside but more 3x for this game. The reason we like Wilson is because the Eagles are only allowing 90.1 rushing yards per game (3rd best in NFL) and the 8th least amount of points to the RB position at 21.3 plus Eagles have the 4th ranked rush defense DVOA. Marshawn Lynch (5200) might grab a TD but won’t get enough volume to return a big value so I’m going to be lower than the field on him. Travis Homer (5300) was solid last week as he rushed 10 times for 62 yards and caught 5 balls for another 30 yards so that is who I would use as a salary saver over beast mode.

Love some D.K. Metcalf (6100) as he has a whopping 12 targets last week compared to only 7 for Tyler Locket (7200). Eagles are giving up the 30th most fantasy points to the WR position at 41.5. Pair Wilson with 1-2 of his pass catches and sit back and watch the points roll in. Jacob Hollister (4300) is a cheaper TE that also had 8 targets last week so he at least has to be on a radar as there are no many cheap options this week.


Carson Wentz (6200), Greg Ward (5200) & Dallas Goedert (5200) (if Ertz is out) are all solid options on a short slate. Seattle is allowing 263.9 passing yards per game (27th) and have the 15th rated passing defense DVOA. Seattle is also allowing the 31st most fantasy points to the TE position and 17th in covering the TE.


But what I really like is the Eagles running game this week. Seattle is also allowing 117.7 rushing yards per game (22nd) but over the LAST 3 WEEKS they are allowing 175 rushing yards per game! Miles Sanders (6200) is a beast but he is questionable with an injury so keep an eye on him because if he is out that is more carries for the other RBs. Jordan Howard (4900) should also be back for this game but don’t know what kind of load he is going to have. Boston Scott (5800) was a BEAST last week! He had 3 touchdowns AND caught 4 balls for 84 yards and put up a whopping 35.8 DKP! He has 8, 13.5 and 24.8 DKP prior to that so he has been getting some work. He has put up a solid per carry average in those contest of 4.0, 4.3 and 5.9. He also have 23 catches across his last 4 games. Love some Boston Scott his week!


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Thank you for reading and good luck!

Haze

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