PGA Championship Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
There are a ton of solid golfers this week and I wish I had time to talk about all of them but unfortunately I had to pick a few and go with them for the article. Here are some of my favorite plays so far! We are going to look at the scorecard, our Top 10 custom model rankings spit out by Fantasy National, 5 of the hottest golfers over the last 10 tournaments and then our favorite players including our “punt of the month” pick at only $6,100!
SCORECARD:
There are 3 Par 5’s on this course and they are the 4th, 7th and 13th holes. They are the biggest scoring opportunity as they have a 38.7% - 56.7% - 28.6% birdie rate (respectively). No other hole on the course has a birdie rate over 20% so focus on Par 5 scoring monsters! There are 3 holes that are between 15%-19.9% and all other holes are sub 14%. Those 3 are #1 Par 4 – 430 yards – 17.6% birdie rate, #2 Par 4 – 389 yards – 19.5% birdie rate, #14 Par 3 – 161 yards – 19.8% birdie rate.
CHEATSHEETPROS CUSTOM MODEL RANKINGS:
1 – Rory Mcilroy
2 – Gary Woodland
3 – Jason Kokrak
4 – Dustin Johnson
5 – Justin Thomas (withdrew)
6 – Jon Rahm
7 – Adam Scott
8 – Justin Rose
9 – Tony Finau
10 – Paul Casey
(*Screen shot is from our premium PGA CheatSheet.)
HOTTEST GOLFERS OVER THE LAST 10 TOURNAMENTS:
RORY – 99.9 per game average (81.5, 84.0, 125.5, 87, and 125.5)
MOLINARI – 91.3 per game average (100, 96.5, 68.5 and 117.5)
TIGER WOODS – 91.0 per game average
DUSTIN JOHNSON – 89.7 per game average
BROOKS KOEPKA – 84.5 per game average (127.5 & 114.5 last 2!)
(*Screen shot is from our PGA Recent Data Tracking sheet.)
*** HIGH END GOLFERS ***
DUSTIN JOHNSON (11100) –
Recent Form: Other than his most recent 28th at RBC he has finished in the top 10 in 7 of his previous 8 starts.
DK FPPG Range: 72.5 – 143 DK points over his last 5 starts.
Stats on this course: He has played this course 8 times and his numbers are solid. In those 8 rounds he is 2nd in SG:TOT, 3rd in SG: OTT and 5th in DK points.
Thoughts & Other Notable Stats: The #1 golfer in the world right now with 7 top 10s this season. He ranked out as #4 in our custom model and ranks 24th in Par 3s, 6th in Par 4s and 14th in Par 5s.
RORY MCILROY (10900) –
Recent Form: 6 Top 6 finishes in a row before his most recent 21st and 8th place finishes.
DK FPPG Range: 81.5 points to 125.5 over his last 5 starts.
Stats on this course: Played this specific course 8 times and ranks 1st in SG: T2G, 1st in SG: BS, 1st in SG: OTT, 7th in SG: APP and 20th in DK points. Solid numbers here!
Thoughts & Other Notable Stats: Ranks #1 in our custom model, solid recent form, solid stats at this course and in his last 50 rounds he ranks 3rd in Par 3s, 2nd in Par 4s and 19th in Par 5s. Solid numbers!
FADE: TIGER WOODS – I am 100% fading Tiger Woods this week. I think this is a solid let down spot for him after the big win. You could purely fade him based on ownership as everyone is going to be on some Tiger, he is just a popular golfer. Even most wives who don’t know any golfers know who Tiger Woods is. He ranks 32nd in P3s, 3rd in P4s and 33rd in P5s. He has played this course only 4 times and ranked 56th in Approach, 29th in DK points and 33rd and up in most other categories. Not what I want to see from the highest priced golfer.
BROOKS KOEPKA (10400) – I love me some Koepka and this guy looks like an animal if you have ever seen him in person. I was at the PGA Championship last year at Bellerive and Spieth walked by who is a skinny bean pole of a man and then comes Brooks Koepka who looked like a mini Schwarzenegger with arms ripping out of his shirt. Anyways he is a big dude! Brooks is coming off a 4th at the AT&T and 2nd at The Masters and put up 114.5 and 127.5 DK points in those two. I will own several shares of him this week but it is notable that he has played here 4 times and ranked terribly. He was 56th in SG: Total, 52nd in SG:T2G, 60th in SG:OTT and 46th in Approach. However I think his current form and with limited data we can use him with confidence. I just wanted to put those stats out there.
*** GOLFERS BELOW THE 10K MARK: MID-UPPER TIER PLAYS ***
RICKY FOWLER (9300) –
Recent Form: 9th at The Masters, 4th at Wells Fargo.
DK FPPG Range: Consistent 70-90 DK point range.
Stats on this course: Very impressive in his 8 starts here – He is 12th in DK points, 5th in SG: Total, 16th in T2G, 6th in SG: OTT, 2nd in ARG, 17th in Putting and his only eye sore is 59th in Approach.
Thoughts & Other Notable Stats: Custom model dropped him down to 27th due to his 49th ranking over his last 50 rounds in Par 5s. But we like him and he is priced perfectly for a balanced lineup!
JASON DAY – Almost made the cut as his 8 starts here he is 2nd in SG: Total, 3rd in DK points and 21st in Approach. However, we didn’t pick him as a main target with his 2 missed cuts in his last 5 starts finishing 87th at Valspar and 123rd and the Arnold Palmer.
PATRICK REED (8400) –
Recent Form: 63rd, 28th and 36th in his last 3 starts putting up 67, 67.5 and 69.5 points.
DK FPPG Range: 19.0-69.5 DK points.
Stats on this course: Only 4 starts here but in those 4 he has been very productive ranking 1st in SG: Total, 7th in T2G, 8th in Approach, 17th in Putting and 2nd in DK points.
Thoughts & Other Notable Stats:
EMILIANO GRILLO (7100) –
Recent Form: 33rd, 62nd and 26th in his last 3 putting up 75.5, 50 and 81 DK points.
DK FPPG Range: 21.0 – 81.0 DK points in his last 5.
Stats on this course: Looking through stats here he jumped out. Only 4 starts but in those 4 he is 4th in SG: Total, 15th in SG: OTT, 26th in Approach, 10th in Putting and 3rd in DK points.
Thoughts & Other Notable Stats: Solid stats here for the price tag of $7.1k on DK!
SCOTT PIERCY (6500) –
Recent Form: 2ND at AT&T for 134.5 DK points and 3rd at RBC for 94 DK points.
DK FPPG Range: 23.0 – 134.5 DK points over his last 5, hot as of late!
Stats on this course: 6 rounds here with so-so numbers. 38th in SG: Total, 26th in T2G, 21st in SG: OTT, 13th in Approach (impressive!) and 37th in DK points.
Thoughts & Other Notable Stats: Solid punt play but will be over 10% owned in GPPs.
*** ULTIMATE LONG SHOT PLAY ***
ROB LABRITZ (6100) & also notable he is 3,000:1 odds to win if you got a buck you want to set on fire! He is a club pro and club pros hardly ever make the cut in events like this but he has played more rounds on this course than anyone in the field. He won the New York State Open on this course in 2008, 2011 and 2016 so he is very familiar with it. I wasn’t able to dig around and get his scores but if he even makes the cut at this price tag you could build a dream lineup. I give up a 90% chance of failure and missing the cut but if you are ever going to take a shot on a club pro making the cut this is the guy!
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Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze