PGA Sports Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
I want to start off by saying this is a LOADED field on an easy course. These golfers are going to low once again. Look for golfers who have been hot recently, accurate and have a shot to get inside the top 10. Some of the “long shots” that I’m posting I don’t think they are actually going to win but I think they can be in the top 10 going into the last round and that allows me to cover my bets on some of the other guys. So we want to consider these “blanket bets”. For example, saw you have Carlos Ortiz at 165:1 odds and he ends day 3 in 4th place. The top 4 golfers are running away with it then you can use some of the future money in the 165:1 ticket to cover the other golfers that are competing. $10 at 165:1 odds pays $1,650 so that gives you some wiggle room and a good sweat. I just don’t bet golfers that are +900 in a tough field on an easy course.
ABRAHAM ANCER 20/1– He is only 20:1 and that is the lowest I’m going to go this week, although I also like Justin Rose at 25:1, Ancer comes in 15th in T2G, 24th in approach and 10th in proximity from 150-175 yards which makes up the majority of approach shots this week. In his last 3 events he has finished 2nd, 14th and 7th. He also took 8th here last year. He should have a good run this week and hopefully he will be contending on the final day.
COLLIN MORIKAWA 30/1 – Currently at 30:1 he is great on accuracy courses but he can’t put to save his life. He is 4th in T2G, 1st in approach and 8th in proximity 150-175. Before his slide last week he had finished 2nd and 9th in his prior 2 tournaments. He is getting close to a win and someone that can hopefully hang in and contend on the final day.
PAUL CASEY 35/1– So he is just now getting back in the swing of things but he loves this course. He ranks 10th in T2G, 3rd in approach and 11th in total proximity. He has 4 top 5 finishes here in 5 years and that other finish was a 17th.
JOAQUIN NIEMAN 40/1 – 17th in T2G, 17th in approach and his proximity numbers are solid with a 19th in 150-175, 4th in 175-200 and 1st in 125-150. He took 5th here last year and is playing solid golf right now coming off a 5th place and 32nd place finish. He had a chance to contend list week and this slid down. Odds are to good to pass up.
VICTOR HOVLAND 45:1 – Now we are getting up into some juicy paydays! 11th in T2G, 4th in approach and 10th in total proximity. His last 4 finishes are solid with a 21st, 23rd, 11th and 3rd.
MARC LEISHMAN 45:1 – Another 45:1 shot that I like. 21st in T2G, 6th in approach and his proximity stats for the 150-175, 175-200 and 200+ are 22nd, 18th and 1st. Wow! He has history here putting up a 21st place in 2018, cut in 2017 then 17th, 9th and 39th. He obviously does well with the course but has limited rounds under his belt after the covid layoff.
JOEL DAHMAN 65:1 – When sorting our DFS cheatsheet by the golfers who are performing well vs. the average PGA golfer Joel Dahmen comes in at #3 behind Bryson DeChambeau and Justin Thomas. He is +2.24 strokes per round better over his L20 rounds than the average golfer. He sits at 8th in T2G, 10th in approach and 5th in total proximity. He has a 48th and 19th place over his last two tournaments but prior to that he had back to back 5th place finishes. If he can get hot and contend on the last day he would be a great guy to have at 65:1 odds!
BRIAN HARMAN 65:1 – So he originally was not on my radar until I started to dig deeper. After looking at the stats I was not impressed with 67th in T2G, 85th in approach and 43rd in proximity. However, he has finished 8th and 6th here the last two years. Prior to those two years he was 35th, cut and 3rd place. So he has 3 top 8 finishes in 5 years and back to back top 8s in the last two years. I’ll take a shot at that for 65:1 odds.
DEEP DARTS – These are guys you definitely want to cover your bet if they are contending in the final round.
MAX HOMA 85:1 – I wish his odds were a little higher for me and in your sportsbook they likely are. Max Homa is playing at +1.68 strokes better than the average golfer over his last 20 rounds. He has made 85% of his cuts and in his last 4 tournaments he has finished 41st, cut, 24th and 5th. Again, he is a longshot in this field and not my favorite deep dart but someone worth mentioning.
DOC REDMAN 135:1 – Now we are getting over 100:1 and I love those darts because you can’t really lose anything with some sprinkles on these guys. Doc has made 13 of 17 cuts for 76%. He has decent stat numbers ranking 29th in T2G, 21st in approach and 14th in total proximity AND he is ranked 3rd in the 150-175 range. He has never played this course but his last 3 outings he has finished 21st 58th and 62nd. He is one of my favorite long shots here!
CARLOS ORTIZ 165:1 – Can we go higher than 135:1? YES! Yes we can with Carlos Ortiz at 165:1! Carlos is 33rd in T2G, 32nd in approach and 27th in total proximity. He took 17th here in 2015 and was cut in 2014 and 2018. He is coming off a solid 33rd place finish last week where he was quietly climbing the leaderboard for awhile.
RECAP FOR “PICKS TO WIN”
I’m not saying to bet on all of these guys, these are just guys that are on my radar. Each person has their own picks and strategy and I’m simply just pointing out a few that you might have been considering and maybe this will put you over the edge on a guy. I’m also looking at a round 4 cheatsheet for DFS and also for sports betting picks so stay tuned!
Thanks for reading,