PGA Stats & Plays from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
I’m glad to have some PGA action to look forward too. This is such a crazy pandemic and it is killing sports and I’m worried about the short shifty schedules in the upcoming NBA, MLB and possibly NFL. However, let’s jump in and look at some PGA plays.
Harbour Town is a short 7,099 yard course with Bermuda greens. The majority of rounds player here the winds are 17+ mph but this week they are projected 7-10 mph but that can quickly change on the coast. Pay Mayo had an interesting tid bit in his article this week and said SG: Approach (one of my favorite stats) was 3 times more impactful than any of the other SG stats. Here we want a golfer that can play in high winds, has a solid approach game and preferable in good form. Pat Mayo also had a stat that the top 18 in SG: Approach were 13 of the top 16 finishers last year. I looked through all the other SG stats and none had a correlation that strong across the last 3 years.
LAST WEEK ANALYSIS:
My favorite part of any sports is looking back and making comparisons on the cheatsheet vs. actual results. Last week the “AVG vs. Recent” column was very impactful on the sheet. This is how the golfer is playing vs. the average golfer over his last 20 rounds. You can see Bryson was +2.38, Kuchar +2.02, Sungjae +1.89, Xander +1.78, Morikawa +1.68 and red hot Daniel Berger +1.91. Those were most of the guys that were competing on the final day. All of those golfers were also solid in DK points, SG: Approach and other specific categories. Notice the Collin Morikawa ranked 119th in SG: Putting and that is what cost him a win. So just want to say pay attention to this column this week when picking out golfers.
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER:
Daniel Berger – Red hot right now coming off a big win he is also playing +2.56 strokes better than the average golfer and +1.45 strokes better than his normal average baseline. He has a 1st, T4, T5 and T9 in his last 4 outings with strings of 81, 114 and 90 DK points. He is playing solid golf right now and in good form. Berger is also a solid golfer in the high wind environments. His average strokes gained in calm conditions is 0.63, moderate winds 0.73 and high winds is a whopping 1.83! He is also +3.6 in SG: Approach over his L5 rounds and +3.4 SG: Putting.
Bryson DeChambeau – Another golfer who is red hot right now with the highest strokes over average at +2.77. However, he is only playing +1.15 stroke better than his baseline so he isn’t playing out of his mind he is just playing solid golf right now. Coming off a T3, 4th, 2nd and T5. Sitting on 8 straight cuts made and 7 of them were top 15 finishes. DeChambeau does great in calm and moderate winds but in heavy winds he tends to struggle going from +1.04 average SG to -0.22. He has been a solid fantasy point producer with 101, 74, 125, 126 and 90 DK points in his last 5.
Collin Morikawa – 2nd, T9, T42 and T26 in his last 4 starts and he has been at +2.07 strokes better than the average golfer while only +0.44 strokes better than his baseline meaning he is playing solid. He has a string of 21 straight cuts made and 8 of his last 9 tournaments he has been T26 or better. He is also a very strong golfer in high winds as his average strokes gained is 1.59 in calm conditions but 1.61 in high winds so I feel confident in his ‘wind game’. Now with those numbers above I really like Morikawa but I have to tell you the “bad” or I’m not doing my job. His putting is horrible! Bermuda greens is his worst putting surface as he is -0.59 SG: Putting on Bermuda and that is 3x more than Bent greens or POA.
Matt Kuchar - Kuchar has the most rounds played at Harbour Town with 32. In those rounds he has ranked #1 SG: Total, #1 SG: T2G, #4 SG: Approach and #2 in DK points. He is priced fair at 8300 on DK and since we are shooting for around 8x value he has put up 78.5, 93.5, 83 and 85 DK points in his last 4 events (outside of last week at the Charles Schwab) all hitting lose to 10x value.
Tyrell Hatton - Hatton has 95, 99, 90 and 90 DK points in his last 4 events. He won the Arnold Palmer on 3/5/20. Hatton does hit best putting on Bermuda greens even though he has struggled on this course. He also has solid average SG stats in moderate to high wind conditions with 1.32 and 0.96 SG.
PUNT PLAYERS for GPPs:
Matthew NeSmith - Cheap price from a guy who put up 115.5 DK points in January at the Amex finishing 17th and 109 DK points in February at the AT&T finishing 11th. What I like here is that he has scoring potential for a winning GPP lineup. He his 34th in SG: Approach and 23rd in SG: Putting and those are two key stats this week and he is almost min priced on DK. He has a +1.43 average SG in heavy wind conditions. He was +1.5 and +2.0 in SG in Approach and Putting last week. A great wild card to mix into your lineups.
Max Homa – Another wild card for our lines this week at 7,000 on DK. He shot a 70 and 69 last week at the Charles Schwabb and then struggled to score at the Arnold Palmer but his prior 5 outings were amazing for his price tag. He has 90, 98, 100, 85 and 107 DK points and he is crazy cheap this week! What I like about Homa this week is high wind conditions is where he plays his best golf so if the wind speeds pick up they shouldn’t hurt him that much. He isn’t going to win the tourney but if he can make the cut he should give you value on his price tag.
Graeme McDowell – This is a LONG SHOT! I was looking for someone who has <1% ownership and he was at 1% at the Schwab and 1.1% at the Arnold Palmer. He only has 28, 54, 47, and 47 DK points and priced at 7200 on DK. However, there is potential here as he took 4th in the Sony Open and put up 100 DK points on January 9th. What jumps out at me besides his shitty recent form is his SG: Putting is highest on Bermuda greens at +0.43 and he is better on the more difficult courses. His average SG is +0.23 on an easy course and on a difficult course he jumps to +0.67. He also plays really well in moderate and high wind conditions.
Ian Poulter – Solid golfer at a solid price. Does his best putting on Bermuda greens and does well in difficult courses and decent in moderate to high winds.
Matthew Fitzpatrick – Does his best putting on Bermuda greens and his highest SG is in heavy wind conditions but does not play as well on difficult courses.
Thank you for reading,