DK Showdown Plays for ROUND 2 from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
I have been crushing some low stakes showdown slates using the live strokes gained data. I am going to write my first showdown article and hit on some guys that we can use tomorrow for round 2.
GOLFERS OVER 10,000 ON DK: “HIGH END STUDS”
I imagine most people are going to start with Bryson DeChambeau since he put up a -6 (was -7 tied for lead until a bogey on 18) and a ton of DK points. If you look at his stats he was +3.96 SG: Putting which is unsustainable and his SG: Approach and SG: T2G that we are going to focus on were not as good. With a -1.05 on approach and only 0.20 on T2G this tells me that he was saved with his putter today. If you have the money I can’t argue against him but for GPPs I’m going light on him and hoping for some lower ownership on the next two guys.
WEBB SIMPSON – 0.79 putting, 1.57 approach and 1.38 on T2G are all solid numbers for Webb who shot a -4. He will continue to score and hopefully look to make up some ground on the leaders rocking up some DK points. You have to pick a couple high end guys because there is so much value on the bottom end.
TYRELL HATTON – 0.49 putting, 1.66 approach and 1.68 T2G are also solid numbers for a high end golfer looking to gain on the leaders. Taking Hatton over Bryson just from an ownership perspective from a guy that can catch fire.
GOLFERS 9,000 – 9,999: “UPPER MID-RANGE”
This is a horrible category for showdown. The grades I calculate for these guys has all of them negative (that is bad) except for Hovland and Finau. I still think both are expensive for the way they are playing right now in a showdown slate. I’d pass and take two top guys and then mix in the lower guys. Skip this range!
GOLFERS 8,000 – 8,999: “THE SWEET SPOT”
ADAM HADWIN – He was in our PGA article and he didn’t disappoint putting up solid numbers in round 1. 1.13 with the putting, 1.62 on the approach and a nice 2.04 on T2G finishing with a -5. He should continue to have success and priced well at only 8300.
LUCAS GLOVER – Another article guy that is killing it with a -5 number. He was 0.85 with the putter, 2.34 on the approach and 2.32 in the T2G. I like Hadwin and Glover because they were positive strokes with the putter but anything around 1.0 or less is good because that takes the large luck factor out of it and shows me they are playing well. Putting continues to be a high variance stat so when you see +4 or +5 that is just a crazy number that will drop going forward. Glover is only 8600.
FADE: BRENDAN TODD – Todd should garner some ownership from the average showdown player who is drinking a beer right now clicking through their phone and building some blind lineups for tomorrow. He is a fade for me and let me explain why. He did shoot a -4 in round one and people will remember last week and see the -4 and jump all over him. However, his putting was +3.71 which is crazy lucky – especially when he is 0.39 for the year with the putter. Take way those 3 strokes and that puts him at -1 and behind the projected future group of players chasing the cut line. So what did his approach and T2G look like after day one? You start to see some of the positive stats here that we are focusing on from the above golfers. Todd was -1.96 on approach and -1.54 on T2G so “saved by the putter”. Fade for me!
LONG SHOT GPP DART: RORY SABBATINI – Wow - talk about a shitty day from a guy who was crushing this course last year. He ended at +4 and -4.46 T2G and both of the other stats were well under -1.0. Cut line last year was -4 and if he gets lucky and the cut line can fall to -3 this year he could come out and shoot a -7 or -8 and squeak inside the cut line. He has nothing to lose because right now he isn’t going to make the cut so he might as well take the risk and go pin hunting to try to make up some ground. He has done really well here before so take a shot at him in a GPP lineup!
GOLFERS 7,900 and UNDER: “The LINEUP FILLERS!”
HAROLD VARNER – He was hyped up by almost every pre-tourney. He ended round one -2 and had a solid +3.22 T2G and still positive 0.26 on the approach shots but a -3.06 with the putter shows some horrible luck. He is -0.08 with the putter on the year so that shows me he lost 3 strokes from his unlucky putting in round 1. If he was a 0 or even he would of shot a solid -5 and everyone would be jumping on him. Someone who should be able to do better that -3 with the putter tomorrow and gain some ground.
HARRY HIGGS – So you get the idea we are looking for guys who had a decent round but struggled with the putter. I’m looking for solid approach and T2G that struggled with the SG:P. Higgs was a very impressive 2.07 on the approach and 3.43 on T2G but -2.27 with the putter. He still shot a -3 but that game if his putter catches fire he could climb the leaderboard fast. Love him for GPPs.
HUDSON SWAFFORD – Full disclosure I only have him in 1 of my 5 lineups I’m putting into the showdown for R2. He shot a -5 today and he was -0.45 with the putter. That is impressive! He had a stellar approach with +2.06 and +3.61 T2G. Another thing I should mention is that I’m looking for golfers that are also positive or close to it for the year in these SG categories. (i.e. if a golfer is -1.50 SG approach and then sudden +2.50 after round one that is to much of a spread for me.)
EMILIANO GRILLO – So he was the highest graded golfer for me after round 1 with a ridiculous +3.18 on the approach and +4.46 T2G. Now while he did crush those categories he was -0.30 with the putter. I’m more confident targeting strong approach and T2G stats than putting because of the variance. Hopefully, since I keep repeating it you guys will pick up on it!
MARK HUBBARD – Same as above he was only +0.50 with the putter in round one and he is +0.46 on the year so he played his normal game. The approach he was a nice +1.84 and +2.67 on T2G. Priced at only 7000 he can easily build on that -5 number he shot in round 1.
CHARL SCHWARTZEL – GPP only here priced at 6700. The reason is he is negative on approach + T2G on the season so there is some more risk. He had a nice round one shooting a -2. Now I want to know did he get lucky with his putter or crush the approach and T2G? He was -2.42 with the putter but a solid +2.07 and +2.58 with the approach and T2G. Schwartzel is a decent putter he is +0.78 on the season so -2.42 is a very unlucky number for him.
Thanks for reading,
Haze