MLB Parlays & Picks from CheatSheetPros!
STRATEGY: So one of my favorite and most successful things to do sports betting are to find 1-2 games that I consider a high probability of winning and then put them in ALL my parlays and mix and match other games to get a higher payout. Now if your lock game takes a loss you need a backup plan or just accept a loss on the day. Never put a large portion of your bankroll on a single day. But when you get through your lock games it becomes very profitable. Some days I’ll run too big favorites (like today) and other days I made lock in a dog and shoot for a lower risk and massive payout day. So let’s look at what I’m going with today.
PARLAY LOCKS:
BOSTON (SALE) - Chris Sale is on fire right now after having a horrible start to the year. He has 22 Ks in his last 16 innings with 0 ER. Boston also boasts the #3 bullpen since May 1. They come in as a massive favorite of -300 to -320 depending on your book. If you don’t like the lower payout you could go run line -1.5 of -200 but Boston is 29-42 on the run line and that scares me since they have been semi-cold hitting. Boston is hitting .298 vs. Bundy through 181 Abs. Boston ranks 3rd, 4th and 5th in the entire MLB on Road Teams wRC+ (118.33), wOBA (.346) and OBP+ISO (.548). Baltimore is 6-14 at home since May 1, averaging 3.2 runs per game over the last 7 days and rank 28th in the last 10 game power rankings.
HOUSTON (VALDEZ) – A little more risk with this one and the -220 favorite so if you choose a run line it’s worth noting Houston run line is 37-33 on the year. Houston ranks 13th in their last 10 game power rankings vs. Toronto only 27th. Toronto is 9-21 in their last 30 games and Houston is 22-8. Clayton Richard has been terrible, he has a 7.5% swinging strike rate which is one of the lowest numbers on the slate and has given up 7 ER in his last start in only 2.2 innings. Meanwhile, Valdez is one of my favorite pitchers today if you are playing DFS and he is coming off 7.0 innings with 1 ER and 7 Ks and prior to that is only other start was 4.0 innings, 0 ER and 3 Ks. Houston at home is also 22-8 with a wRC+ of 115 (ranks 5th in MLB teams playing at home) and Toronto is 5-15 on the road (these are since May 1st) with a wRC+ of only 79. Houston also boasts a top 6 bullpen and Toronto is sitting in at 23rd right now.
MIX IN GAMES:
TEXAS +110 – I can’t believe they are a dog in this game vs. Cincy. Cincy ranks 21st in their last 10 game power rankings and Texas is 6th! Texas is also scoring 6.3 runs per game over the last 7 days and 5.7 on the year! Cincy is averaging only 4.2 on the year and 2.8 over the last week. Texas also has GREAT BVP history vs. Roark, remember a couple days ago the David Price BVP stats? Yes he got his ass shelled and that was easy to see looking at the sheet. Texas is hitting .341 vs. Roark through 41 team Abs and a lower 20% K rate. Tanner Roark struggles vs. LHH and Texas looks to roll out at least 5 LHH today. Mike Minor has been solid this year and in his recent starts he has only given up 2, 0, 3, 1, 2, and 1 ER. Add in the cold Cincy team and I’ll take Texas as a dog all day!
CLEVELAND RUN LINE – Cleveland is only 32-36 on the run line this year so that isn’t great but I sure as hell don’t want to lay -260 on the Indians. I’ll take the risk/reward of the run line odds here. Cleveland facing Soto who has an xFIP of 8.97 vs. LHH and the 30th ranked bullpen behind him. Cleveland is scoring 6.2 runs per game over the last 7 and rank 7th in last 10 game power rankings. Detroit ranks dead last in their last 10 game power ranking, scoring 3.5 runs per game on the year and 3.8 last 7. They are facing Shane Bieber (.208 BVP with only 24 Abs) and Cleveland has the #2 bullpen coming in behind the Bieb so lay the -1.5!
MINNY RUN LINE – Minny has a great run line record this year of 39-29 and they rank 3rd in the MLB in wRC+ at home of 121.91, 3rd in wOBA .358 and 2nd in OBP+ISO of .581. They are 21-9 in their last 30 games and scoring 6.5 runs per game over the last 7 days. Royals are 5-15 on the road since May 1st and rank 17th, 19th and 22nd in the wRC+, wOBA and OBISO numbers for road teams. They are scoring a dreadful 2.3 runs per game over the last 7 days and get to face a red hot Jake Odorizzi and the 12th ranked bullpen. Odorizzi in his last 3 starts has went 17.1 innings with only a single ER and 26 Ks. Lay the -1.5!
LA DODGERS – 22-8 in their last 30 games and they are stellar plays at home. Dodgers at home rank 1st, 2nd, 2nd and 3rd in wRC+ (131.5), wOBA (.361), K% (17.9%) and OBISO (.580). They are also #2 in the last 10 game power rankings and 35-35 on the run line. Max Muncy has been red hot, Justin Turner, Bellinger is Bellinger, Freese is even crushing right now. Darvish has struggled all year with his control and walks. Darvish has given up 4, 2, 1 and 6 ER in his last 4 starts with 8 walks. None of the teams faced have the strength of the LAD hitters so this could be ugly. Add in Walker Buehler who is coming off 2 starts of 15.0 innings, 1 ER total and 20 Ks. Wow!
ATLANTA BRAVES – Atlanta is red hot right now winning 8 straight including the 1 run game vs. Philly last night. 21-9 in their last 30 games they are 14-6 at home since May 1st and rank 9th in the last 10 game power rankings. Philly ranks 17th. Atlanta is scoring a whopping 7.3 runs per game the last 7 and even 5.2 on the year. You get +105 here with them facing Aaron Nola. Now the reason I like them as a dog is winning 8 straight is impressive and Nola is giving up a 4.45 xFIP vs. LHH and Atlanta has 4 solid LHH that could be trouble for him. Philly also has a weak bullpen that ranks 24th. Now Atlanta sends Newcomb to the mound who is his first start went 4.2 innings, 0 ER and 6 Ks. In only 38 Abs vs. Newcomb Philly is only hitting .184 against him. Philly is also worse on the road as their wRC+ drops from 97 to 81.9, wOBA also falls 20 points from .319 to .298 and their OBP+ISO drops 31.8 points. Gotta take that dog line here in a close game!
RECAP OF PLAYS:
Incase you didn’t understand the play strategy here I’m going to do a quick recap:
Boston / Houston / Texas <Parlay pays 2.9:1>
Boston / Houston / Cleveland -1.5 <Parlay pays 1.6:1>
Boston / Houston / Minny -1.5 <Parlay pays 2.2:1>
Boston / Houston / LA Dodgers <Parlay pays 1.9:1>
Boston / Houston / Atlanta <Parlay pays 2.8:1>
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Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze