RECAP of yesterday: NBA exploded yesterday for us! We have another great run of plays popping on the sheet. This has been a great year for NBA plays and the algo. This is how yesterday turned out: #1 Algo Play – Kenrich Williams – 6.6x value, #2 Algo Play – Malik Beasley – 6.8x value, #3 Algo Play – Monte Morris – 8.0x value and #4 Algo Play – Mikal Bridges – 8.5x value! 2 “Diamond Plays” also exploded with Luka Doncic (also in our breakdown write up) and at a low salary of $8,300 on DK he dropped 62.25 points for 7.5x value. James Harden (with no CP3) popped as another “Diamond Play” dropping around 90 DK points at $12,500 for 7.2x value! Ready for another week for solid NBA plays and PGA!
Superbowl Showdown Picks:
Sony comes in as our top GPP algo play on our Superbowl Showdown sheet. He has been amazing in the playoffs putting up 26.3 DK points vs. KC and another 35.8 DK points vs. the LAC. That is pushing 4x and 5x value where most players are putting up 2x-3x. The Rams ended the regular season with the 28th DVOA rushing defense and 9th DVOA passing defense. The Rams are also giving up a massive 5.1 rushing yards per carry which bodes well for Sony Michel. I have him locked in as the captain in 60% of my Superbowl Showdown linesup on DK.
He pops as a “Diamond Play” on our Superbowl Showdown sheet and for good reason. He has been trusted by NE in key situations. Rams also rank 25th vs. pass catching RBs and White is a superb passing catcher out of the backfield. The Rams rank really well across the board (13st DVOA vs. WR1, 9th DVOA vs. WR2, 4th DVOA vs. TE but they are just lackluster vs. RB). White gives us a nice floor with upside if the game is close or the Rams get out to a lead. He is coming off 11.2, 24.7 and 16.9 DK points over his last 3 contest. He had an amazing game vs. the LAC where he caught 15 balls on 17 targets for 97 yards. On DK where it is a full point PPR he should have a 2x floor with upside if he gets into the endzone.
Other players to consider:
Brandon Cooks revenge game??? NE is tough to predict because they will shut down whatever they think is a threat. I’m sure they are going to shut down Cooks like they did Tyreek but you still have to have exposure due to the limited player pool. NE Ranks 15th DVOA vs. WR1, 30th DVOA vs. WR2, 31st DVOA vs. TE and 4th DVOA vs. RB. This would lead you over to Everett and Higbee. They are priced at $2,000 and $2,200 on DK’s showdown slate. Everett has 2 targets and 4 targets in the last two games putting up 7 points and 0 points while Higbee has 4 targets in both games and put up 12.5 points and 5.0 points.
NBA Players for the short 3 game slate:
Paul George - $10,000
He comes in (again) as the early GPP algo play of the day. He is coming off 5.92x value over his last 6 games and 6.13x over his last 4 games and 6.24x value over his last 2 games. OKC comes in as a +4 underdog so they will need a big game from PG to stay in it. And adding a new stat from our recent consistency add – He has 86% of games at 6x value on his current salary over the last 21 days! OKC is also 2nd in pace on the season and 8th over the last 3 games.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - $4,100
He comes in as our top punt play. He is rated #4 on our GPP algo and he has a nice 5.8x value over his last 6 games and an even better 6.8x value over his last 4 games AND 7.23x over his last two games. He is also in the “Mini Diamond” class for the slate. He has a nice 9.8x ceiling game out of his last 10 games (remember we look for 7x and higher for GPP plays). In our consistency column he has 100% of his games over the last 21 days in the 5x value range, 50% in the 6x, 25% in the 7x and 25% in the 8x! Wow!
Al Horford - $6,700
I want to try to hit on someone less obvious that will be lower owned and I think Al may be the guy. Again there are not many players to choose from. 6x value over his last 6 games puts him on my radar. Last 10 game ceiling is 7.4x so that exceeds our 7.0x value so we are good there for GPPs. Team implied total of a nice 116 points – check! Vegas spread of -4 meaning the game is projected to be close – check! OKC giving up 57.8 DK points to his primary position over the last two weeks and that is a 5% bump over the average on the slate – check! He also has a +15.96 points advantage at home and plays an average of +5 minutes at home. He is scoring 40.6 DK points over his last 6 home games and playing 33.2 minutes while scoring only 24.7 DK points on his last 6 road games and playing 25.5 minutes. 22% of his games over the last 21 days have hit the 7x mark, 55% have hit 5x value and 77% have hit at least 4x.
Going to cut this short with the Superbowl and small 3 game NBA slate today but wanted to get some content out there for everyone!
Good luck today!