THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL - SHOWDOWN SLATE - CHARGERS vs. RAIDERS
Vegas opened this game at Chargers +3.5 and has now moved down to +3 and the total opened at 55 and has moved down to 53. We have this game around 27-24 or 27-23 so we are pretty close to the Vegas line.
On Fanduel the MVP should be the "highest scoring player" and on Draftkings the Captain should be the "best valued player". Keep that in mind when I talk about "value".
Raiders are giving up a massive amount of yards as they rank 25th in rushing yards allowed and 25th in passing yards allowed. They are the 28th rated "D" and 32nd rated rush "D". This points directly to Austin Ekeler who I think will be in a smash spot this week. Raiders are also allowing 4.7 yards per rush which ranks 30th in the NFL AND the Raiders are 22nd vs. pass catching RBs. On a site like Draftkings where you get a point-per-receiption he is a huge asset! He has 16, 9 and 9 targets since he has returned over the last 3 weeks. Last week he caught 9 balls for 67 yards and that alone is 15.7 DKP and he also rushed for another 79 yards. He put up 24 DKP and didn't score a touchdown, that's impressive. In Week 12 he caught 11 balls on 16 targets for 85 yards. Those are valuable points. He is a must have in the Thursday slate.
Justin Herbert will be in a good spot as Raiders rank 30th in QB pressure and they are allowing the 25th most passing yards. If you play Herbert then pair him with Keenan Allen as the Raiders rank 25th and 23rd vs. WR-1 and WR-2 coverage. Herbert only has 17, 7 and 20 DKP over the last 3 weeks but he has hit 31 and 42 earlier in the year so the upside is there for a GPP win. Keenan Allen is obviously directly related to Herbert. When Herbert has a big game so does Allen as he is the undisputed WR-1 on the team and gobbles up the lions share of targets. (See screen shot below). Hunter Henry is also a solid option with consistent points and a solid floor. He has 10, dud, 14, 15 and 13 DKP over the last 5.
Derek Carr has big upside and has 35.7 and 28.8 DKP over the last two weeks. He will be without Henry Ruggs as he is on the Covid-19 list so bump up some Nelson Agholor, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller. Agholor has emerged as the WR-1 on the team but Waller is also a top target on the team so consider them 1-A and 1-B. Agholor has 25, 21 and 25 DKP games since week 7 and Waller has that 48 point monster and then several 15-23 DKP. Josh Jacobs is in a smash spot if he is able to play. LAC are allowing 4.6 yards per rush, 120 rushing yards per game and they have the 27th rated D-Line, 29th in allowing runs of 5-10 yards and 24th in allowing runs of 10+ yards.
Darren Waller is in a good spot as he will be covered by Kyzir White who is 6'2" and 218 lbs and Waller is 6'6" and 255 lbs. White is allowing almost an 80% catch rate and is one of the bottom rated coverage players at PFF.
- Most optimal lines won't have a Kicker or Defense in the captain spot.
- If you play a WR in the captain spot you HAVE TO INCLUDE the QB in the flex. It is very unlikely the WR will go off and the QB won't be a top scoring player along side him.
- Make your lineup tell a story, if you can't tell what the story is then the lineup probably won't take down a GPP.
- I love kickers as value plays because they are cheap. I will go into DK and click on both DEF and both K and look at their last 5 games. For example, the Raiders this week have -4, 8, -1 and -2 DKP so they are out of the player pool as that is horrible! Chargers are 9, -3, 9 and 8 over the last 4 so that is a little better. I mean at 3400 putting up 9 points is almost 3x. But still not using any DEF on this particular game. Daniel Carlson (3600) has 9, 8, 6, 7 and 15 DKP so there is actually some value there as opposed to putting in a guy that might get 1-2 targets.
- Players that correlate together is a team DEF with the same team RB. If the DEF is leading and the RB is grinding out the clock that is a win-win. I also like to use the opposing team K as another correlated spot. My thought process is if the DEF is keeping them out of the end zone that means the kicking is putting up 3-4 point FGs vs. 1 point extra points.
Thank you for reading and good luck!
FYI - I have also posted the Saturday 2 Game Slate Article on the website so make sure to check it out! ( www.CheatSheetPros.com )