NCAA Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
These are plays that I came up with looking through the NCAA slate of games this weekend. They don’t all necessarily agree with our cheatsheet but this are the personal games that I have picked out so far.
ARTICLE LAST WEEK: 2 WINS – 1 LOSS (1 game cancelled)
NCAA BEST BETS:
INDIANA (+14.5) over WISCONSIN
Our NCAA Betting sheet does have Wisconsin winning this game by around 7 points so getting two touchdowns on the Indiana side is very appealing. Indiana is a passing team that ranks 25th and those teams are always fun because if they get down two scores they start airing it out and they are great for back door covers. Wisconsin just lost to Northwestern who is comparable to team to Indy but they have a slightly better defense. Wisconsin blew out Michigan 49-11 but that isn’t saying much as Michigan is struggling this year to say the least. Indiana just took Ohio State to the wire as a +21.5 point dog and ended up losing 42-35 but it was an easy cover. Indiana also routed Michigan 38-21 and beat Rutgers 37-21 when they started the season. Outside of Ohio State they beat Michigan State 24-0 and then coming off a win vs. Maryland 27-11. TAKE THE POINTS!
LIBERTY (+10.5) OVER COASTAL CAROLINA
I was shocked when I saw this line last night. Yes Costal Carolina is 9-0 and ranked #18 in the country but Liberty is 9-1 and they have played some tough games. Coastal Carolina is beating up on nobody teams and racking up stats. They beat Texas State (106th FEI Rank and 118th DEF), App State (27th FEI Rank and 21st DEF) – That was a good win so I’ll give them credit there, South Alabama (103rd FEI Rank and 96th DEF) and Georgia State and Georgia Southern who rank 84th and 77th in FEI rankings. Liberty has played NC State and Virginia Tech who are actual division one teams. They lost to NC State by missing a FG as time expired 15-14 and they beat Vtech 38-35. Oh and Liberty can beat up on shit teams also smacking UMass 45-0 and Western Carolina 58-14. To me these teams are not that far off from each other so TAKE THE POINTS!
IOWA (-13.5) OVER ILLINOIS
The first thing that jumps out at me on this game is the common opponents. Both teams beat Nebraska and both teams played Minnesota. Iowa thumped Minny 35-7 completely shutting them down with their stout defense and Illinois lost to Minny 41-14. After Illinois lost to Minny they came back and beat Rutgers 23-20 and Nebraska 41-23 so it appears they are trending up! However, this Iowa team is only allowing 14 PPG over the last 4 games and they have scored an average of 31.8 PPG this season on offense. Iowa comes in rushing for 172.8 rushing yards per game and Illinois is allowing the 91st most RY per game at 194.6 so this bodes well for Iowa moving the ball and scoring points. On the other side Illinois is also a solid rushing team with 222.4 RY per game but Iowa is the 20th defense in RY per game and only allowing 109.3 so they are going to get tested this week. Both teams are passing for less than 200 yards per game and Iowa will face the 88th pass defense and Illinois will face the 39th pass defense so another tougher test for Illinois. Our main model has this game at Iowa 35-16. Iowa has also played a tougher strength of schedule and they are winning games by an average of 15.2 points while Illinois is losing by an average of -10.2. LAY THE POINTS!
CLEMSON (-21) OVER VA TECH
Common opponents – Clemson just beat Pitt 52-17 and VaTech just lost to the same Pitt team 47-14. Clemson has the #1 passing offense in yards per game at 377.8 and they are facing a Va Tech pass defense that is 105 in yards per game giving up 272.9. Our custom models has this game 54-28 and 50-25. Clemson will have their way with the Hokies, LAY IT!
KENT STATE / MIAMI (OH) OVER 68.5
Kent State is phenomenal on offense putting up 49.8 PPG and they also have no defense to speak of allowing 38.0 PPG. They rack up an average of 606.5 offensive yards per game and they have a defense that ranks 122nd in the FEI rankings. Kent State has scored 70, 69 and 62 points in their last 3 games while allowing 35 points to an Akron team that is one of the worst teams in the nation! OVER ONLY WAY TO GO HERE!
BUFFALO / OHIO OVER 57.5
Line opened at 58.5 and down to 57.5. Our custom model has this game at 55-36 and 47-32 and both modeling skyrocketing over the total. Buffalo has scored 70, 42, 42 and 49 points in their last 4 games. Buffalo is scoring 50.8 PPG on the season and while their defense is better than Kent State it’s still allowing 24.5 PPG. 75% of the Buffalo games and 67% of the Ohio games are going over the total. Buffalo holds the 2nd best rushing offense at 323.2 RY per game and they are facing an Ohio team that is 90th in allowing rush yards per game at 194.0. Jaret Patterson for Buffalo last week had 409 RUSH YARDS AND 8 TOUCHDOWNS so good luck stopping that guy!
TEXAS A&M (-6) OVER AUBURN
Do you ever have a team that keeps showing up in your research and then you are just shocked at the outcomes? Texas A&M is that team for me this year. A&M ranks 21st on “O” and 16th on “D” and they are playing Auburn who is 33rd on both sides. Our model has this around a 31-21 game so I’m happy to lay the 6 points here. A&M has a beast defense and they are only allowing 87.1 RY per game and have only allowed 7 and 3 points in their last two games. While South Carolina beat Auburn earlier in the year 30-22 A&M completely dominated South Carolina 48-3. LAY IT!
NEAR PLAYS THAT DIDN’T QUITE MAKE THE CUT:
NOTRE DAME (-33.5) OVER SYRACUSE
TEXAS TECH (-27) OVER KANSAS
We are still looking through the NCAA slate for this next weekend and these are just the early plays that I have plucked out. Thank you for taking the time to read the article and have the best of luck this weekend in your NCAA bets!