Sports Betting Picks from CheatSheetPros!
HOW DID WE DO IN LAST WEEKS ARTICLE?
Last week we crushed it going 4-1 in the top 5 article plays! Some of the highlights were Notre Damage (-17) winning 55-0, Tennessee (-28) winning 60-14 and Michigan (-16) rolling 59-18! The prior week was also great going 5-1 in our posted article “Best Bets”. That gives us a 9-2 (82%) two week run! And this is just for the games I POSTED! Using the tools and cheatsheets several members were able to dig up more wins!
GAMES THAT WE LIKE THIS WEEK:
BEST BET #1
NOTRE DAME (-19.5) OVER STANFORD
PFF model has this at -37.5 and our also has this at -21 so Vegas is a little light on the spread. We have a projected model score of 37-16. Stanford ranks 120th on “O” and 103rd on “D” and after Notre Dame coming through for us last week we are right back on them! Incase you missed it we had Notre Dame as a best bet last week laying -17 and they won 55-0, putting up a 23-11 FD edge and 514-224 total yard edge. GTech and Stanford both rank outside the top 100 on “D” so Notre Dame should be able to crush the scoreboard again. Georgia Tech actually ranks 78th on “O” and Stanford 120th and the spread last week was only -17 and this week only jumped to -19.5. Notre Dame needs to make a statement here as they rank #6 in the land and Ohio State #2 faces Michigan #5. Notre Dame 6-0 ATS run giving up 0, 3 and 6 points in the last 3 games. Lay the wood with confidence!
BEST BET #2
OKLAHOMA STATE (-4) OVER OKLAHOMA
Our model has this 29-22 OSU > OU. Both teams rank 44th and 49th on “O” but OSU holds the better “D”, ranking 3rd in the land vs. 78th for OU. OSU only allowed 253 yards per game while OU allowing 405. OSU has played the tougher scheduled and they are @ HOME this week for this great matchup! OU faced Iowa State last week beating them 28-21 but they lost the first down edge 25-15 and they were outgained 362-306. Iowa State had 2 picks and a fumble that gave the game away. OSU played Texas Tech last week and won 23-0 and outgained them 27-10 on first downs and 427-108 total yards. Yes, that is correct they only allowed 108 TOTAL YARDS in that game, Wow! They gave up 33 rushing yards and 83 passing yards.
BEST BET #3
CLEMSON (-11.5) OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
PFF model has this at -20.5 and our algo has this at -14 so Vegas is light on their Clemson spread. Clemson “D” has been the highlight of their season ranking 14th in yards allowed per game at only 328 and 17.7 points per game. Clemson surging right now going 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after starting the season off 0-6 ATS. Clemson has put up 48, 44, 30 and 30 points on “O” in the last 4 games and that was their downfall earlier in the year. Clemson beat up on Wake Forest 48-27 last week shutting down that high octane passing attack that was putting up 500 yards per game. Clemson also beat Louisville 30-24 and they rank 13th in offensive yards per game. Clemson gets to face South Carolina who ranks 114th in offensive yards per game at only 321 so they shouldn’t have any issues shutting them down. SC beat at tough Auburn team last week 21-17 but after looking at the game they were outgained 22-15 on FDs and 379-316 on total yards.
BEST BET #4
WAKE FOREST (-5) OVER BOSTON COLLEGE
Our algo line has this at -10 and PFF model has this at -13 so don’t mind laying the -5. Boston College will have their hands full with the 7th rated “O” that is putting up 500 yards per game. Our projected model score is 33-25 with WF winning by 8 and covering the spread. BC played FSU last week who ranks 75th in “O” and lost 26-23. Wake Forest was roughed up by a surging Clemson team last week so let’s look at the prior week when they played NC State. NC State is a better “O” (57th vs. 100th) and better “D” (16th vs. 39th) than Boston College so I’m really interested in how that game went. Wake Forest won 45-42 in a shootout.
BEST BET #5
PITTSBURGH (-13) OVER SYRACUSE
PFF model loves this game as their projected line is -30.5 and our algo is only -9. Our model isn’t as much of a fan as we have this projected at 34-22 so let’s dive in and see what we think. Pittsburgh has a great “O” ranking 4th in the land with 511 yards per game and they put up 509 last week against Virginia on their way to a 48-38 win. Virginia is putting up 515 offensive yards per game while Syracuse ranks 96th at only 353 yards per game. Syracuse gave up 399 total yards and 41 points to NC State last week losing 41-17. Syracuse can’t hang in a shootout as Pitt has 48, 30, 54 and 34 points in the last 4 games and they are averaging 40.6 PPG on the season. Syracuse has a solid rushing “O” but that is the one decent part of the Pitt “D” is they only had 98 rushing yards per game.
OTHER GAMES TO CONSIDER THAT DID NOT MAKE THE TOP 5 CUT FOR US:
GEORGIA (-35) OVER GEORGIA TECH
Bulldogs come in 11-0 winning by an average score of 38.7 to 7.6. Georgia has the #2 “DEF” allowing only 247 yards per game so they will likely easily shut down GTech this week who ranks 78th in offensive yards per game. To give you an example - Notre Dame ranks 35th in defensive yards per game allowing an average of 348 which is around 100 more per game than Georgia. Last week Notre Dame played GTech and allowed 0 points, 11 first downs and only 224 total yards while racking up 55 points, over 500 yards and 23 first downs. In 3 of the last 4 games Georgia has allowed 7, 6 and 7 points so we are basically looking for Georgia to hit 42 or more. GTech defense ranks 114th in yards per game giving up 473 so Georgia shouldn’t have any issues. Don’t mind a TEASER on this game or a 1H wager if you don’t want to lay the wood.
UTSA (-10.5) OVER NORTH TEXAS
I never thought I’d be writing up a play on the Roadrunners but here we are! Roadrunners come in 11-0 and 7-0 in C-USA laying only -10.5. What jumped out is that our algo line is -20 and the PFF model was -22 and that’s double the Vegas line. Our projected score here is 35-20. Since both of these teams are in the same conference we can look at some common opponents. North Texas is on a 5-0 ATS run over the last 5 games. UTSA just played UAB and won 34-31 and it was early in the year when N.TEX played UAB but lost 40-6. Prior to that game UTSA played So Miss and won 27-17 and N. TEX also beat them but by a better margin 38-14. UTSA beat UTEP by 7 and NTX beat them by 3. NTX beat RICE 30-24 but UTSA beat them 45-0.
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