College Football Best Bets from CheatSheetPros!!
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BEST BET #1
HOUSTON (-24.5) > TEMPLE
Temple over the last 4 games have only scored 3, 7, 14 and 3 points against the likes of ECU, UCF, USF and Cincy.
Houston is rolling with 40+ points per game in 4 of the last 5.
PFF is very conservative and has this game at -32.5 while my algo sits right under the Vegas spread.
BEST BET #2
GEORGIA (-20) > TENNESSEE
Georgia has not allowed more than 13 points in a game ALL SEASON! They have only allowed 6, 7, 13, 10, 0 and 0 over the last 6 games.
TEN lost to Alabama 52-24 (by 28 points) and Georgia is a better team and a better defense!
I like to look at comparable opponents and here I can only compare Florida to Tennessee. Florida has a power ranking of 52 and Tennessee only has a 46. Georgia just beat Florida 34-7. LAY IT!
BEST BET #3
IOWA STATE (-10.5) > TEXAS TECH
PFF and our algo has this covering the spread and even our skew model has Iowa State by 13. Yes it's close but the detailed stats put me on the game.
Iowa State DEFENSE is 4th in least yards allowed at 283 and Texas Tech is 77th and allowing 406, so can this difference of yards cover 10.5 points?
Iowa State just beat TEXAS 30-7 but what is more impressive is they held a 23-11 first down edge and 476-207 total yard edge and Texas holds a power ranking of 52 while Texas Tech is only 42.
BEST BET #4
OKLAHOMA STATE (-13) > TCU
PFF and our algo has this game covering the spread of -13 and even though our algo is close to the Vegas spread I have other stats that put me on this game.
OSU has been impressive on defense as they rank 3rd in total yards allowed at only 269 per game, while TCU has been decent offensively, they are 116th in defensive yards allowed giving up 475 per game.
Common opponent evaluation: OSU just beat a solid WV team 24-3 and WV beat TCU 29-17. Earlier in the year OSU beat KST 31-20 and KST beat TCU 31-12.
OSU also held WV to only 133 total yards and 11 first downs.
FLAG TO MENTION: TCU coming off a great game where they put up 570 yards vs. BAYLOR!
BEST BET #5
AIR FORCE (-2.5) > COLORADO STATE
PFF is fairly conservative so seeing a -15 made me want to dig in a little more. My algo matches Vegas with a small over to Air Force.
Common opponent evaluation: AF beat Boise St 24-17 while Colo St lost 28-19 to them. AF beat WYO 24-14 while Colo St lost 31-17.
Last week WYO ran for 385 RUSH YARDS against Colorado State and this week they get the #1 RUSHING TEAM in the land!
Air Force is 62% ATS at home since 2016.
BEST BET #6
WISCONSIN (-24.5) > NORTHWESTERN
Wisconsin has the #1 defensive allowing only 213 yards per game and they are facing Northwestern who ranks 97th on offensive putting up only 351 offensive yards per game.
N'Western has a YPP of 20.1 and facing a touch defense so we are projected that to get all the way out to 25.1 YPP (yard per point), so if they can put up 250 yards we are giving them around 10 points.
N'Western & Rutgers both have a power ranking of 34 so I want to look at how Wisconsin did against Rutgers. Wisconsin just played Rutgers last week and pulverized them 52-3!
Wisconsin took Rutgers 27-11 in first downs, 579 to 207 total yards with a 52-3 final score.
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