FAVORITE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYS FOR SATURDAY:
CINCY (-28) OVER NAVY
PFF has this line around -33 and our custom algo has this around -37 so we are laying the -28. This game will feature Navy and the 118th “O” vs. Cincy and their 6th rated “D” and on the flip side we have 18th vs. 86th. Both teams recently played UCF so I like to compare common opponents just to get a feel for the game. Navy lost 34-30 but they were a 16.5 point dog so they did pretty well. Cincy was a -21.5 favorite and wont 56-21. Lay it!
I don’t mind a first half bet on Cincy if you would rather go that route since the last time they played in 2018 Cincy raced out to a 28-0 lead.
OHIO STATE (-21) OVER INDIANA
Per Pointwise Sports Indy on an 0-7 ATS slide (-58) points and Ohio State is on a 177-37 point edge in last 3 games who also scored on their first 9 possessions vs. MD. I read that and that sounds pretty tempting, right? Looking into the game Ohio State has won the last 3 games 66-17, 52-13 and 59-7. Indiana has lost 20-15, lost 24-0 and beat W. Kentucky 26-24. Buckeye’s Red Hot right now!
UAB (-23) OVER RICE
Conference USA match up here with UAB coming in at 5-2 and Rice 2-4. Average scoring margin is 25-22 for UAB and 9.6 to 40.8 for Rice. That means Rice is losing their games by an average of 31.2 point. Rice also has the 102th rushing “O” and 123th passing “O”. Looking at UAB they have been playing football with a win last week over Southern Miss 34-0, FL ATL 31-14, a loss to Liberty and beat Tulane 28-14 and N. Texas 40-6. Rice squeaked by S. Miss 24-19 but lost last week to UTSA 45-0. Last week UAB dominated FD 20-9 and yardage 388-107. Our model has UAB -24 and line is -23 so not a lot of cushion but Rice is sooooo bad!
TEXAS A&M (-21) OVER SOUTH CAROLINA
South Carolina squeaked by a horrible Vandy team last week 21-20 as a -18.5 point favorite and now they travel to Texas A&M to face a surging A&M squad that beat Alabama 41-38 and then rolled Mizzou 35-14. SC ranks 101st on “O” and A&M holds the 12th best “D”. My algo has this spread around -20 so the line seems a tad high but it’s a game I’m really looking at this weekend.
MISSISSIPPI STATE (-21) OVER VANDY
Miss St was crushed by Alabama last week 49-9 but the prior week they beat Texas AM as a +7 dog by the score of 26-22. Vandy is a bottom 7 team in NCAA:F so Miss St has a chance to open the flood gates and grab a big win! Miss St pumping out the 4th most passing yards per game at 360.3 going up against the 111th passing defense. Vandy “D” also allowing 473 yards per game.
3 MORE GAMES I HAVE IN THE CONSIDERATION POOL RIGHT NOW:
ALABAMA (-25) OVER TENNESSEE
Our algo does not like laying 25 here with the Tide as we have this around -20. But Mississippi State and Tennessee are not that far off as they are only 5 spots apart in our power rankings. Last week Alabama destroyed Mississippi State 49-9 rolling up 543 yards to only 299. Miss St ended that game with -1 yard rushing and 300 passing. ‘Bama on a mission right now!
MINNESOTA (-5) OVER MARYLAND
Not one of the plays that I picked out but I’ve heard several people backing Minny on large wagers this weekend. PFF has this game around Minny -6 and my own algo has this around -10 so I don’t mind it. Maryland is on the road and allowing 428 yards per game while Minnesota is a 59% ATS team at home. Both teams with similar strength of schedule and a 4-2 record but Maryland’s average score is 23.6 to 34.8 while Minnesota is 25.3 to 20.2. Lay it the only way to go here!
IOWA STATE (-7) OVER OKLAHOMA STATE
OSU ranked #8 in the land and coming in as a 7 point dog to an unranked team? Vegas is usually pretty spot in in these situations. I haven’t bet this game yet but looking hard at it. PFF has this at OSU -9 and my algo has this at Iowa State -9 so let’s see what happens!
Thank you and good luck!
Haze