College Football Picks for Week 4!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
I had a few people ask me for the Sports Betting 101 video as they are new to sports betting so I’m putting the line below. I also had a few people request a YouTube video on “How I pick my college games” so that is also posted below. Last week our College Bets with 5-2 for the games that we posted but we discuss and play additional games in the Facebook chat group for premium members. The games below that I list a (1st Half) that means I’m going with a 1st half bet and then depending on how the game is going might take a 2nd half bet.
HOW TO VIDEOS:
YouTube: How I pick my College Games:
YouTube: Sports Betting 101 for Newbies:
GEORGIA (-29.5) 1ST HALF OVER
CHEATSHEETPROS MODEL: GEORGIA 55 vs. KENT STATE 6
Last week Georgia 1H was one of our favorite plays. Our College Football CheatSheet projected this game 44-7 and the final was 48-7. South Carolina ranks around 56th in the nation and Georgia won 48-7, held a 30-17 FD edge and 547-306 yard edge and forced 3 turnovers. Kent State ranks 112th in the nation and with the 100th ranked offense and 113th ranked defense. Kent State has allowed 477.5 yards per game on defense. Look for Georgia to start off hot and then shut down in the 2nd half. They have only allowed 10 total points in 3 games. Line is a little high but still going to ride it.
UCLA (-21 GAME/1st HALF) OVER COLORADO
CHEATSHEETPROS MODEL: UCLA 44, COLORADO 12
Colorado ranks 115th in the nation with the 117th rated offense and 107th rated defense. They are allowing a whopping 362 yards per game on the ground and UCLA ranks 29th in rushing yards per game with an average of 206.5. Other sites project this right around the Vegas spread: PFF (-18), FO (-21) and TRanks (-20) but we have this at (-31). Since our model is 10 points higher than the Vegas spread this game hits our radar for us to investigate! UCLA hasn’t really played anyone except South Alabama where they held a 32-31 win. Colorado has lost 49-7, 41-10 and 38-13 so UCLA should be able to move the ball and put some points on the board. Colorado against Minnesota last week lost 49-7, had a 29-14 FD deficit and allowed 500 total yards on defense and 334 rushing yards.
UCF (-20.5/1ST HALF) OVER GEORGIA TECH
CHEATSHEETPROS MODEL: UCF 37 vs. GATECH 9
Last week UCF played Florida Atlantic and everyone was projecting this to be a close game and it started off that way but ended completely different. UCF won 40-14 and held a 32-18 FD edge and a whopping 653 YARDS to 296, WOW! Georgia Tech played Ole Miss last week and Ole Miss (1st Half) was another one of our easy winners! UCF isn’t Ole Miss but last week Ole Miss took a 42-0 win, 31-13 FD edge and 547-214 yard edge. The thing that jumps out at me on the College Football CheatSheet is the 17th rated offense for UCF facing the 103rd ranked defense for GaTech. I don’t always agree with Pointwise but this was also one of their top plays for this next weekend.
UTAH (-14/1st HALF) OVER ARIZONA STATE
CHEATSHEETPROS MODEL: UTAH 34 vs. ARIZONA STATE 17
Last week Utah was another pick for us that was part of our 5-2 posted record and I even double dipped with 1st half and game line since we were having such a strong day. Utah rolled San Diego State 35-7 with a 22-9 FD edge and 398-173 yard edge. Our model has this game closer to the Vegas spread (-17) vs. (-14) but still like laying it with the Utes. Arizona State imploded last week as a (-20.5) favorite over Eastern Michigan losing the game 30-21. Looking into the game logs last week EMU held a 25-20 FD edge, 305-191 rushing yard edge and 458-380 total yard edge and they have USC on deck. Utah should smash in this spot and this line feels low as Utah has the 26th rated defense and Arizona State has the 106th rated defense and Arizona State gave up 450+ yards to Eastern Michigan who ranks 100th in the nation. What do you think the 12th rated team in the land will do to them?
SOUTH ALABAMA (-13/1ST HALF) OVER LOUISIANA TECH
CHEATSHEETPROS MODEL: SOUTH ALABAMA 40 vs. LATECH 23
South Alabama could blow them out of the water and run away from this game. Our model has this around (-17) and Vegas (-13) feels like they pegged this low but I’ll take it! South Alabama opened the season rolling an unranked team 48-7 then followed it up with another win vs. Central Michigan as a +6 point dog. Last week they faced UCLA as a +15.5 point dog and almost won the game but ended up losing 32-31. South Alabama hung with UCLA 22-21 FDs, 407-399 total yards and both teams were 2-2 turnovers. UCLA is the 38th ranked team in the nation with the 10th best offense and 17th best defense and now South Alabama will face LaTech who ranks 90th & 126th. LAY IT!
WASHINGTON (-14/1ST HALF) OVER STANFORD
CHEATSHEETPROS MODEL: WASHINGTON 42 vs. STANFORD 23
Stanford only has 2 games played this year so can’t really get a read on them but Washington is on fire right now. Their first 2 games they played weak schools and crushed them 45-20 and 52-6 but that doesn’t tell us anything. Then comes Week 3 and they face off against Michigan State and win 39-28 with a 24-21 first down edge and put up 503 total yards to only 365 of Michigan State. Michael Penix (QB) is a monster and would be in the Heisman conversation if he played for Alabama, Clemson, OU, etc. he has thrown for 397, 337 and 345 yards with 4, 2 and 4 touchdowns. Michigan State ranks 25th and Stanford ranks 76th. Since Washington has looked good and just knocked off #25 Michigan State I’m happy to lay it against Stanford.
KANSAS TEAM TOTAL OVER 36.5 VS. DUKE
Nothing special here but I am from KC so watching a KU team explode to a 3-0 record putting up 56, 55 and 48 points I’m happy to ride the team total. Their defense ranks 110th so they need to score early and often and they are on a 3-0 run OVER this number. Duke has allowed 23 and 20 points to Northwestern (93rd) and North Carolina AT&T.
OTHER GAMES THAT POPPED ON THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL CHEATSHEET: Syracuse, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tulane, Minnesota, FSU, Cincinnati, Georgia Southern, Kansas.
Good Luck!
Haze