College Football Sports Betting Picks!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
I'm going to walk you through the process of how I dig through to find my plays using the College Football CheatSheet. I have 3 picks that jumped out that I'm posting here and then 5 more plays that I will post in the group for premium members! SINGLE DAY PASS available this weekend to try us out - see bottom of this email for details!
STEP #1 - SCAN THE SCOREBOARD
New this week I pulled in the two models I created into the scoreboard so you can look at them side by side. The "CLOSE" is for games that have RANKS closer together around 20-25 spots and the "GAP" is for 25 or more separation in the rankings. If there is a game that is 26 spots look at BOTH there is no hard set rule of an exact number but 20-30 spots is typically the breaking point to move from the CLOSE to the GAP modeling.
I'm looking for the CLOSE & GAP Model vs. VEGAS SPREADs and then I'll compare the RANKS to see which model I should favor. Here we see a huge gap from Tulane #47 to South Florida #110 so this would push us to the "GAP" model since there is 25+ difference in the rankings. That would give us a spread of Tulane (-19) and Vegas is (-12). This is a game we will mark down and dive into further due to the difference between Vegas and our model.
Here we see two closely related teams with San Jose State #78 vs. Fresno State #88 and since this is inside of 25 spots we would look toward the "CLOSE" model. That would give us a line of San Jose State (-15) and Vegas has (-8.5). Now both models are the same so no need to worry about the gap! We have marked this game as one we would like to look into further.
Here we have James Madison (-16) on our "GAP" model and Vegas opens this at a (-10.5) so definitely a game we want to dig into. We will make a note of this game and look at it further by entering each team into the main tab and seeing the breakdown and comparing opponents.
STEP #2 - ENTER THE TEAMS TO COMPARE STATS!
GAME #1 - TULANE (-12) OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
PROJECTED SCORE: TULANE 35 vs. SOUTH FLORIDA 16
Tulane has the 15th best DEF facing the 103rd ranked OFF of South Florida.
Both teams put up mid 300's on offensive yardage but South Florida is allowing 487 yards on DEF while Tulane is only allowing 321.
PFF (-13), TRanks (-13) both agree with Vegas but FO and CheatSheetPros have this at (-18) and (-19) which is much larger than what Vegas opened at.
Tulane has a big win under their belt beating K-State 17-10 and South Florida only has a win vs. Unranked HOWARD!
KEY STATS to LOOK FOR:
Look at offensive vs. defensive ranks overall, passing and rushing.
Look at the team schedules, who have they played? Weak opponents? Strong opponents? Could a few bad teams be skewing the stats?
Go look at game logs and see the first down edges, yardage edges and scores.
GAME #2 - SAN JOSE STATE (-8.5) OVER FRESNO STATE
PROJECTED SCORE: SAN JOSE STATE 28 vs. FRESNO STATE 13
The biggest discrepancy is Fresno State and their 104th ranked offense vs. the 8th defensive in San Jose State.
SJST is putting up 404 to only 333 offensive yards per game and on defense they are allowing only 261 vs. 400+ by Fresno State.
I like that SJST is allowing only 127 passing yards on defense as the teams that give up a ton of passing yards can give up a ton of 2nd half points and let teams slide under the number for a back door cover.
SCHEDULES: Fresno State played Oregon State and USC so had a couple tough games but their last two games against UConn and Boise were less than impressive.
GAME LOGS: If you look at the game log for last week you'll see that Boise State took Fresno with a 22-15 first down edge and 443-233 yard edge.
GAME #3 - JAMES MADISON (-10.5) OVER GEORGIA SOUTHERN
PROJECTED SCORE: JAMES MADISON 40 vs. GA SOUTHERN 22
I had another game I really like and wanted to put here but saving it for the premium card of plays.
Has anyone been watching James Madison this year? Last week vs. Arkansas State they took a 33-11 first down edge, that is huge! They also doubled the yardage putting up 598 to only 267 on their way to a 42-20 win.
Our models have this game between James Maidson (-16) to (-18) so we think Vegas is too light at -10.5.
Another benefit of the Pointwise sheet is that you can see the team schedule, closing line and see their record ATS. In the screen shot above you can see they have had a vegas lined game in 4 of 5 and they are 4-0 ATS. They opened (-4.5) vs. MTN and won 44-7, impressive! Rolled an unranked Norfolk State and then they were +6.5 vs. App State and won the game 32-28. Their last two games they were double digit spreads and covered both.
RECAP: I hope you enjoyed the screen shots and write ups in this article as it is very time consuming to put together. I strive to teach people a "process" on picking plays and showing them the thinks I'm looking at so you can find your own plays. Our Cheatsheets are filled with valuable information but my time doesn't always permit me to maximize the data inside them.
WANT TO TRY US OUT? ** SINGLE DAY PASS! **
Now you can get the 5 additional College Football Picks + Pointwise Betting Sheet + College Football Sheet for a single $10 ONE TIME PASS! Just go to the website (CheatSheetPros.com) and select the "College Single Day Pass". This is ONLY available this week for a test run! If you are already a member you have access.
Good Luck!
Haze