COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS!
ILLINOIS (-7) OVER NEBRASKA
CHEATSHEET PROJECTION: ILLINOIS 32 vs. NEBRASKA 17
Illinois now the #1 defense in the land allowing only 238.8 yards per game. They face off against a Nebraska team that ranks 109th in rushing defense and 126th in passing defense and on total defense they are allowing 499.3 yards per game. Illinois has an easy path to 25-30 points so it just comes down to how many points Nebraska can score on that stout defense. In the last 5 games Illinois has only allowed 14, 6, 10, 0 and 3 points.
EAST CAROLINA (+3) OVER BYU
CHEATSHEET PROJECTION: EAST CAROLINA 32 vs. BYU 27
Wrong team favored so grab the points or take a shot at the moneyline. Last week BYU was demolished by Liberty giving up a 28-12 first down edge and 547-258 total yard edge losing 41-14 and they were a (-7) point favorite. The prior week they gave up 34 first downs, 52 points and 644 yards to Arkansas. East Carolina played UCF last week as a (+5.5) dog and won the game 34-13 with a slight 24-23 first down edge and 458-426 yard edge.
SOUTH ALABAMA (-10) OVER ARKANSAS STATE
CHEATSHEET PROJECTION: SOUTH ALABAMA 33 vs. ARKANSAS STATE 21
Arkansas State ranks 112th on offense and 112th on defense putting up only 317 yards per game and allowing north of 450. South Alabama has been playing great outside of the game last week where they lost to Troy 10-6. In that game both teams only had 15 & 16 first downs and 246 and 266 yards so it was a slugfest. Arkansas State has lost 3 straight scoring only 18, 19 and 20 points while allowing 38, 20 and 42. The most notable game was the loss to LA Lafayette where Ark State lost 38-13 and gave up a 27-13 first down edge and 522-271 yard edge. South Alabama has also played that LA Lafayette team and they won 20-17. South Alabama putting up 100 more yards per game on offense and allowing 110 less yards per game on defense. Basic math with the average yard per point makes this around a (-13) to (-15) point game so happy to lay the (-10).
TCU (-7.5) OVER WEST VIRGINIA
CHEATSHEET PROJECTION: TCU 40 vs. WEST VIRGINIA 26
Not a huge margin with our models as the first model has this at (-8) and the second model has (-14). West Virginia is up and down beating Baylor at home 43-40 but then went on the road last week and got crushed by Texas Tech 48-10. In that game they gave up a 33-19 first down edge and 594-282 yard edge. TCU is better than Texas Tech so happy to lay a touchdown and a hook. TCU has been outstanding putting up 38+ points in EVERY GAME, same game parlay anyone? They knocked off Kansas State last week 38-28, OSU 43-40, KU 38-31 and OU 55-24. Last week against Kansas State they held a 26-15 first down edge and 495-390 yard edge. I don’t tease college games but love this down to (-1.5) to (-2) but I’ll take a straight bet and lay the points.
USC (-15.5) OVER WEST VIRGINIA
CHEATSHEET PROJECTION: USC 42 vs. ARIZONA 22
USC ranks 11th in our power rankings and Arizona is 88th so we have a huge edge for USC. I’m going to lay the first half spread and then attack 2nd half if I don’t get an easy win because USC will either start hot or run away in the second half. Arizona has been respectable on offense putting up 479 yards per game and ranking 17th in the nation but look at that schedule: Georgia State, Texas State, The Citadel, James Madison and Troy? Yea those stats are padded against WEAK teams, I mean they rank 86th, 103th, unranked, 44th and 66th. USC is putting up 40.4 points per game and coming off their first loss by 1 point to Utah. Last time USC played a team ranked close to Arizona (88th) it was Fresno State (90th) and they won 45-17 and I think that is close to how this game plays out, I mean our model has this 42-22. Arizona did just beat Georgia State (86th) 42-17 but the prior game they LOST to Texas State (103rd) 36-24.