College Basketball Plays for Wednesday 3-2-22!
FAVORITE PLAY: Middle Tennessee (-2) over Charlotte
Consensus Line: MTN (-6) & Last 10 game line (-5.5)
Love these Blue Raiders and they have been good to us with a 21-5 ATS (81%) record and even 8-3 (73%) on the road! MTN is around 100 spots better in power ranking, defensive ranking and even L10 power ranking. MTN played them at home and won 78-63 (by 15 for your non-math wizards!) and they are on a 13-1 run dominating the CUSA. Charlotte is a decent team but they are 2-4 over the L6 games and I don’t think they have a shot here. FL ATL just beat Charlotte on their home court by 5 and MTN went to FL ATL and beat them 87-79. MTN just played the WKY Hilltoppers and rolled them 69-52 and that same WKY team beat Charlotte by 10.
FAVORITE PLAY: Wake Forest (-10.5 or 1st Half) over NC State
Consensus: Wake Forest (-12) & Last 10 game line (-15)
Wake & Shake Baby! NC State is a 24% ATS team with a 7-22 record and only 3-5 ATS on the road! Wake Forest is a 15-2 SU HOME play and 11-6 (60%) ATS @ Home! Last 10 power ranking is #25 vs. #146 and NC State is holding the 232nd “DEF” on the season. This will be a heavy 1H play for me with a 2H hammer if they don’t cover it. They played @ NC State on Feb 9th and rolled up a 69-51 win (by 18 points) and you know I love teams that just rolled on the ROAD and now playing at HOME with a Vegas line less than their prior win! NC State just lost to UNC by 10 and Boston College by 7 and even though it’s been awhile Wake Forest beat Boston College by 30 and UNC by 22.
Arkansas (-5.5) over LSU **
Consensus Line: Pick’em & Last 10 game Line is Arkansas (-13)
Arkansas already knocked off LSU on the road back in January 65-58. They have won 13 of the last 14 games including knocking off #6 Kentucky, #16 Tennessee and #1 Auburn. Those were also their last 3 HOME games & they face LSU tonight only laying -5.5?
St Johns (-1.5) over Xavier **
Consensus: Xavier (-2) & Last 10 game line (St Johns -10)
These two played on Feb 16th @ Xavier and St Johns rolled their way to a 13 point win 86-73 and now they get to play them on their home court. Xavier lost L4 in a row but played solid vs. UConn & Providence and then last game Seton Hall rolled them 82-66 so confidence might be fading?? I’ll take the team @ Home with a double digit win already under their belt.
Saint Louis (-2.5) over Rhode Island **
Consensus: Saint Louis (-7)
Rhode Island fell off a cliff the 3rd week in January. At that point they were on a 6-1 run and then lost 9 of the next 10 games. They are coming off a big win against Duquesne 70-54 but that’s not impressive beating a 6-21 team. STL is a mixed bag as they have won 8 of 12 but I want to focus on the 4 losses. They lost to St. Bonnie twice by 7 and 4 points so they hung in and went the distance with them. Lost to Davidson on the road and Davidson is a great team when they are at home. Recently lost to Richmond on the road by 2. St. Bonnie just went 73-55 over Rhode Island easily knocking them off. Prior to that game Geo Wash beat Rhode Island by 9 and STL went 80-67 over Geo Wash earlier in the season. Spread feels too low at (-2.5).
Fordham (+3 or ML) over UMass
Consensus: UMass (-1)
Both of these teams are BAD! However, I can find some value in Fordham here either grabbing +3 or taking the money line. Fordham is 64% ATS this year while UMass is only 41%. Plus, they JUST PLAYED and Fordham rolled them 85-73! Now that was @Fordham and they are on the road this matchup but this should still be Fordham (-3) not (+3). Fordham has won 3 of the last 4 beating UMass (by 12), LaSalle (by 6) and Geo Mason (by 3). Has UMass played any of those teams? Yes they have! They also beat LaSalle but lost to Geo Mason (by 10). There is no way I can lay (-3) with a team on a 1-3 run that just lost by double digits to this same team and the only thing changing is the venue. Money line for me!
OTHER PLAYS THAT I HAVE AN OPINION ON BUT NOT YET A WAGER:
Davidson (-7) over Geo Mason
Consensus Line: Davidson (-9)
I was on this game, then off, then on and now I’m torn. I lean Davidson here as they have been stellar @ HOME this year. Fordham just beat Geo Mason 50-47 on Feb 20th and the last game Davidson played was against Fordham…. Wait for it… They rolled up a 21 point win 66-45! Stellar! Right? But here is my hesitation… Geo Mason played tight games against Richmond, Saint Louis and beat St. Bonnie. Davidson should get this but I don’t think there is a huge edge in the CBB Model we have and the Vegas line but lean Davidson.
Auburn (-3) over Mississippi State
Consensus Line: Auburn (-9) & Last 10 game line (Auburn -4.5)
Auburn has been horrible on the road with a 3-7 ATS record but I’m willing to give them a shot against Miss St.
Thanks for reading!