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MLB Breakdown April 25th!


MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!

Wow this is a terrible slate for today but let’s hit on some players!


PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:

AARON NOLA (9100) – Love the price tag coming down 1,100 off Cole and he has a dream matchup facing a weak MIA team who is striking out 29.8% of the time vs. RHP. Nola has struggled so far to start the year but managed a 22 DK point outing @ COL last time out going 5.2 with 3 ER and 9 Ks. His K upside gives up a solid floor and the matchup is a good rebound opportunity.


LUIS CASTILLO (10000) – Early slate play he has put up 28+ DK points in 3 of his last 4 starts. He also had 7+ Ks in all of those starts with 9, 7, 8 and 9. ATL is a tougher matchup but they still strikeout 24.4% of the time vs. RHP.


MASAHIRO TANKA (9300) – Careful rolling him out today vs. LAA they only strikeout 15.9% of the time as a team vs. RHP and have a wRC+ of 105.2. I don’t mind his price tag but wouldn’t expect the 30-35 DK point game with the lower strikeout numbers.


ZACH GREINKE (9700) – He has 22 DK points in his last 4 starts. He has been heating up and last time out vs. the Cubbies went 6.0 and only allowed 3 hits, 0 ER and 4 Ks for 22.5 DK points. He has a high of 10Ks @ SD on 4/02. Facing PIT today on the early slate they have a 22.7% team strikeout rate with a .231 team batting average and wRC+ of 78.8.


MARCO GONZALES (8400) – This could be a sneaky play for GPPs. He has only given up 3, 2, 2 and 1 ER in his last 4 starts with 6, 3, 5, and 3 Ks in those starts. He is facing a hot TEX team but they are striking out 25.1% of the time vs. LHP and hold a team batting average that is 39 points lower than their overall at .213 vs. LHP. Their wOBA is also 35 points lower at .303. Their overwall wRC+ is 104.0 which is just above average of (100.0) but vs. LHP they drop down to 80.7.


STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:

BOSTON vs. ZIMMERMAN – Zimmerman started the year with 2 road starts and allowed 0 and 1 ER and then fell off a cliff. His last 3 starts he has given up 5, 5 and 4 ER and only put up 4, 1 and 4 strikeouts. Now he gets to face BOS who is sluggish right now with a 4.4 run per game average but projected at 5.5 runs tonight. Pricing isn’t terrible see screen shot below. Mooreland (4200) .389 wOBA w/ .782 OBiso vs. PH and then Mookie is picking it up with 12.2 DK points per game over the last week, Devers only (3800) with 8.2 FPPG L7. On a shit slate gotta take a shot here.


SEATTLE vs. Taylor Hearn – I’m assuming this is going to be chalky as f*&K! Hearn has 4 starts in AAA this year with a 4.05 ERA and 1.20 whip. Now he comes up to start vs. a hot Seattle team that is averaging 6.0 runs per game vs. real major league pitchers. Seattle should knock him out of the game early. Seattle vs. LHP has a .282 team batting average which is 25 points higher than their overall. They also have a .402 wOBA which is 50 points higher than their overwall and their wRC+ is off the charts at 159.9 vs. LHP which is 35 points over their overall. I may just stack this game for 50 lines and enter them all over. See screen shot below but only 3 projected starting hitters have a wOBA under .300 (Mallex .233, Domingo .291 and Healy .288). Then you have the monster middle of Edwin .492 wOBA, Jay Bruce .562 wOBA and Tim Beckham .683 wOBA. Wow!


NO OTHER TEAMS HAVE A STACK SCORE OVER 160 SO I’M GOING TO FOCUS ON MINI STACKS AROUND THESE HITTERS. YOU CAN BUILD AROUND THESE MATCHUPS SO LET’S HIT ON SOME OF THEM:


SEATTLE: Edwin, Jay Bruce, Tim Beckham – all have .492 or higher wOBA vs. LHP and priced under 5k. Heck Tim is only 4100 and E5 4500.


TEXAS: Nomar hit 2 HR last night I believe – he is only 3300 and has a .323 wOBA vs. his PH. Marco is also struggling vs. LHH with a 5.17 xFIP, 3.9 K9 and 1.57 whip. Other TEX hitters are also cheap as the highest priced projected hitter is 4200 with Elvis Andrus. Could be a cheap stack if you want to go high on pitching.


TIGERS: If you are stacking BoSox look at Nick Castellanos (.316 wOBA only 4100), Niko (.376 only 4300) and Candelario (.300 only 3600).


NYY: Brett Gardner only 4200 is one of the hottest hitters over the last week. He has 21, 4, 11, 25, 20 and 13 DK point games this week. Also has a .373 wOBA vs. pitcher hand and .651 OBiso. Mike Tauchman is also in the same boat with a .361 wOBA at only 3700. Over the last week or so he has 4, 7, 14, 22, 14, 4 and 25 DK point games.


OTHER SIZZLING HOT HITTERS OVER THE LAST WEEK I WANT TO MENTION:

Eduardo Escobar (4000) – 24, 13, 28, 0 and 17 DK points games.

Josh Reddick (3800) – 23, 12, 11, 24, 5, 8, and 24 point games.

Michael Brantley (4200) – 23, 5, 19, 16, 8 and 14 point games.

Brett Gardner (4200) – 21, 4, 11, 25, 20 and 13 point games.


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