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MLB Breakdown for Saturday's Main Slate Action!


MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros!


QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

Not much went right for me yesterday except for the Royals getting the win and the red hot Mondesi continuing his hot run. Bieber gave up a 2 run HR to Buxton of all people, Giolito had a rough outing as did Kikuchi. Bubic stuck in there and gave us a solid outing as the Royals young pitchers continue to look good this year. My CHW stack fell apart when I saw Grandal was not in the lineup as he is the hottest hitter on the team and got a night off and then Casey Mize had a no-no vs. the CHW through 4 innings. But those nights happen and there is always the next day. We had a ridiculous hot streak followed by a swing and miss day. No biggie we are back at it today!

DEFINITIONS: When writing my articles if I refer to power rankings that is their last 10 game power ranking. When I refer to team stats such as runs per game, team batting average, OBISO and wRC+ those are all team stats over the last 14 days to get a glimpse of their current form. xFIP is an indicated of what the pitchers corrected ERA should be and this will tell us if a pitcher is better or worse than their ERA. BABIP is batting average on balls I play and the average (per Fangraphs) is around .300 - .320 so if we get something on the high or low end the pitcher has either been lucky with the balls hit or unlucky and that is a good predictor of future performance.

PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:

ZAC GALLEN – He is the highest priced pitcher on the main slate today but at only 9400. He is coming off a rough start vs. SF where he gave up 4 ER in 5.0 innings but every pitcher has a hiccup game to get them back to reality. Prior to that start he had put up 28, 24, 19, 27 and 22 Dk points. That was also the 3rd time SFG got to faced him after he combined for 13.0 innings and only 2 ER they finally got used to seeing him and tagged him a little. He will put up 6-8 strikeouts and allow a couple runs and should give you a safe 2x value with some upside. The matchup is great facing SEA team who is 27th in our power rankings, 22nd in wRC+, 26th in runs per game (4.2) and holding a team batting average of only .219. Zac has a 2.29 ERA with a 0.98 whip and allowing a low .190 batting average. Both bullpens are terrible so I worry about them being able to hold the lead as he needs the win at this price tag.

ZACH PLEASAC – I don’t mind Pleasac tonight but the matchup is tough facing a MIN team that is 28-18 on the year and 8-2 in their last 10 games. They are also 6th in our power rankings. No BVP history to speak of but Pleasac is having a great year with a 1.32 ERA (3.21 xFIP) and allowing a .186 batting average. His BABIP is low at .221 so he is getting a little lucky on his balls in play. He has put up 22, 25, 28, 19 and 38 DK points in his last 5 and two of those were vs. a tough CHW team who I compare to MIN. Priced at 8000 there is some upside in his price tag.

KYLE HENDRICKS – At 8700 he is a good value pitcher today coming off two great start. He combined in those two starts for 14.0 innings, 2 ER and 10 Ks while putting up 23 DK points in each so that is pushing around 3x value which is solid. MIL has a 25% K rate over the last 14 days and through 97 team ABS they are only hitting .206 off Hendricks.

CARLOS HERNANDEZ (KC) VS. PIT – Wow these young pitchers for KC look pretty solid. Carlos Hernandez will get the starting spot vacated by Matt Harvey tonight against a weak hitting PIT team. He has made two appearances in September for the Royals out of the bullpen and combined for 6.1 innings, 1 ER and 4 strikeouts. Not to shabby for the cheapest pitcher on the slate at only 5700. PIT ranks 28th in our L10 power rankings, 27th in runs per game, 23rd in wRC+ and 21st in team batting average.

STACKS TO CONSIDER:

KANSAS CITY ROYALS – KC isn’t going to put up 10+ runs in a game or at least that is not likely but they allow you to stack any two pitchers you want on the slate regardless of price. They are only 3280 per person for a top graded 5 man stack. Mondesi is the hottest hitter in the game right now putting up 15.8 DK PPG over the last two weeks. I recommended him in our chat as he was cheap and he went off hitting a HR and stealing a base or two for 32 DK points last night. He has put up 32, 27, 5, 10 and 19 DK points. He has 132 DK points total over the last 12 days. His price tag you ask? Only 2700 bucks on DK! What a punt play, use him as a one off player in any of your other stacks. Franco is also heating up with 12 and 30 DK points in his last two and he is only 3800. Edward Olivares is only 2300 and he has put up 0 last night and then 17, 15, 3, 6, 16 and 10 DK points.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX – I still love these CHW and I want to jump on them right after a slow night. They are still 5th in our power rankings and 7th in runs per game. Grandal was out of the lineup last night and he is the hottest hitter on the team so after his night off he should be back in the 3 hole. This stack is expensive so look at mixing in Mazara at only 3200 to lower the cost as he is 5 for 10 off Fulmer with 1 HR and only 1 K. CHW are hitting .278 off Fulmer through 72 team Abs. Fulmer had 1 good start on 9/1 vs. a weak hitting MIL team and went 3.0 innings with 6 Ks. His last start vs. MIN (who I compare as equivalent or less to CHW) he lasted 2.1 innings and gave up 4 ER with NO STRIKEOUTS. He also gave up 2 ER in 3 innings to CHC and 5 ER in 3 innings to CLE. Love me some Sox tonight but I’m going to fade off Tim Anderson at 5600 as he is only 2 for 20 off Fulmer with 5 Ks and it’s hard for him to pickup RBIs hitting at the top of the lineup. I prefer the 2 -3 -4 -5 -6 stack or at least 3 of those with a couple others mixed in. (Add Mondesi as he is cheap!)

ANGELS @ COLORADO THOUGHTS – So last night I pushed this LAA stack for their first game in Colorado and I might of over pushed it because the COL game got my first GPP win in MLB this year. I still like it I mean the LAA are scoring 5.5 runs per game and hitting .262 as a team with a wRC+ of 123. However, their wRC+ drops from 119.4 vs. RHP to 83.4 vs. LHP which they will face today. LAA at home hold a 128 wRC+ and on the road they drop to 86.4. I looked past that yesterday and they only put up 4 runs. So take it as you will but I will still have an Angels stack in my arsenal tonight as Trout and Rendon in Colorado could be fun to watch if they get hot.

ONE OFF HITTERS:

These are hitters that are cheap and they are on hot streaks so if you are hand building a 5 man stack and need some one off cheap plug in hitters then you can use these guys. Mondesi (2700) is red hot right now and just crushing value. KiKi Hernandez is also red hot just make sure he is in the lineup and he is 3700 and fills in 2B hole. Jared Walsh (3100) who I was big on last night in the chat and recommended using him as a one off hitter also hit a HR and I believe he was priced in the high 2k’s or low 3ks. So look at these guys Mondesi (2700), Walsh (3100), KiKi (3700). I’m looking at a White Sox stack with Mondesi in the lineup at only 2700 and pivoting off Tim Anderson at 5600.

Thanks for reading,

Haze

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