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MLB Breakdown (Pitchers & Stacks) for Tuesday!


MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros!


QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:

What a night for the pitcher props going 2-0 again. Hope you saw the post I put in all my facebook groups, twitter and in the premium group chat. Trevor Bauer over 7.5 Ks was -120 and he had a rough outing but put up 8Ks for a win. Framer Valdez over 4.5 Ks was the other at +121 and he put up 11 strikeouts for an EASY WINNER! We split in our STACKS but we knew it was a rough night ahead. We had STL who put up 9 runs and HOU who put up 11 runs and missed with OAK and ARI. We had Framber Valdez as one of our two favorite pitchers and he was the highest scoring pitcher with 28.95 DK points!

PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:

SHANE BIEBER – He is 10,800 today on DK but has put up over 36 DK points in 4 of his last 6 starts including a 46.2 and 41.9 point outing. He is facing a tough MIN team and Rasario, Sano and Cave all over 12+ Abs vs. the Biebs hitting over .300. However, Shane Bieber is a stud I’m willing to plant my flag on. The best hitter for MIN (Nelson Cruz) who is hitting .340 this year is only 1 for 10 with 5 Ks vs. Biebs. Bieber has a 1.11 ERA with a solid 1.52 xFIP and allowing a .175 batting average to opponent hitters. He has 4x+ upside and one of the few pitchers on the slate that can say that. I also want to add CLE has the #1 bullpen right now when he comes out so he should be able to get the win which is +4 points to his DK score.

LUCAS GIOLITO – Gio is coming off some up and down starts hitting a low of 7 DK points and a high of 43 DK points with a couple mid 20’s in there. His latest start was a GEM putting up 43.35 DK points going 7.0 innings with only 3 hits and 0 ER with 13 STRIKEOUTS! Woah someone founds his MO-JO! His matchup couldn’t be better facing a weak PIT team that is on the road. PIT on the road has a batting average for the team that drops from .238 down to .216 and a wRC+ that drops from 81.8 down to 66.9. PIT has been solid vs. LHP with a wRC+ of 134.4 and hitting at a .301 clip but vs. a normal RHP they are only at a wRC+ of 59.5, .210 average and 24.7% strikeout rate. In my custom model I have CHI SOX winning 8-3. Gio for the win!

LUIS CASTILLO – I like him for GPPs tonight. Castillo was a stud last year with a 3.40 ERA and allowing a low .202 batting average and he also has the #9 ranked bullpen behind him. This year he has a 4.44 ERA and allowing a .278 average so most people should look past him. However, his BABIP is crazy high at .403 which means that he is more than .100 points higher than average. He has been very unlucky with the balls in play. His xFIP is actually a solid 3.04 and still holds a solid K9 rate of 12.3. I think most people will see the recent performance of GIOLITO and go with him leaving Castillo low owned and just as much of a stud in the same price range!

TYLER CHATWOOD – He could be the sneaky card tonight coming off the DL. He started off the season with a 28.5 DK points vs. MIL going 6.0 with 8 Ks and then followed that up crushing PIT with 38 DK points going 6.2 with 11 Ks. He went to KC and apparently got injured but KC thrashed him for 8 ER in only 2.1 innings and then he went to the DL. He is now return to face the Tigers. He has solid stat numbers and that is what made me look into him further. Swinging strike rate of 14.8% and an xFIP of 2.71. He could be a good GPP pitcher to toss in a few lines tonight.

MARCO GONAZALES – I hit on the upper range quite a bit so need to give you a low end guy to mix into the player pool. Why not Marco Gonzales? He is only 6600 on DK and has coming off starts of 28.75, 1, 26 and 28 DK points. That is great value. Surprisingly, the 1.25 DK point start was @TEX and the most recent start of 28.75 DK points was @LAD where he went 7.0 innings, 1 ER and put up 9 strikeouts. Wow! He has a tough matchup vs. the Padres but I think the Padres and Dodgers are in the same ball park right now and if he dominated the Dodgers I’ll give him the benefit of a great punt vs. the Padres.

STACKS TO CONSIDER:

CHICAGO WHITE SOX vs. STEVEN BRAULTI love me some White Sox right now and they have made me the most money this year. They are now expensive coming in a 4940 average for the top 5 man stack. This team is solid top to bottom! Tim Anderson has a wRC+ of 455 vs. LHP, Moncada is 154.5, Grandal is 167.2, Abreu is 145 and Jiminez is 147! Plus on the bottom end of the projected lineup you have E5 who is at 9.2 PPG over the last week at only 3800, Luis Roberts who is at 12.8 PPG over the last week at 4500 and Nomar who can lower the cost stack priced at 3200 and Mendick at 2600 hitting at the bottom. White Sox have a team wRC+ vs. LHP that jumps from 106.3 to 167.8, a team batting average that goes from .254 to .305 and a OBP+ISO number that goes from .497 to .689. Steven Brault has been decent on the mound with a 3.00 ERA and .154 allowed average. However, his BABIP is a very low. 200 so he is due for regression as his 4.78 xFIP stats. He is in for a treat tonight with the White Sox spanking on deck! Play any and all White Sox!

CLEVELAND INDIANS vs. RICH HILLCleveland isn’t lighting the world on fire right now like the White Sox but they are decent and fun to watch when they get hot. Rich Hill is a decent LHP that is struggling so far this year. Last year he had a 2.45 ERA and allowing a .223 batting average in 58.2 innings. This year he only has 7.2 innings and that is for 2 starts with a 5.98 xFIP. He is allowing a .214 batting average but his BABIP number is .208 so that is due for regression. He just faced a MIL team and gave up 4 ER in 2.2 innings and walked 3 batters. This stack is expensive and not my favorite but could be lower owned for GPPs.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS vs. MATT HARVEY Poor Matt Harvey was once a rising superstar and then fell off the map. Last year in 59.2 innings he put up an ERA over 7 and allowed a .275 batting average. Now the Royals have a semi weak bullpen so whenever Harvey is knocked out of the game they get a bull pen giving up an xFIP of 4.65 and a 1.42 whip. Matt Harvey has 3 starts this year and those total 14.2 innings and has given up 10 ERs and 8 strikeouts, and lets not forget adding in 10 walks. Two of those teams were SEA and CIN who are hardly offensive power houses. Cardinals got to Brad Keller last night and should easily get to Harvey. THIS STACK IS DIRT CHEAP! The 5 highest graded plays on our cheatsheet is 3440 per person!

CHICAGO CUBS VS. SPENCER TURNBULL – This stack is also really cheap if you want some stud pitchers coming in at only 3200 per player for the 5 highest graded hitters. They have 4 guys in the projected starting lineup that are 2900 and lower. Turnbull isn’t anything amazing he just gave up 3 ER in only 2.0 innings to the ChiSox and then 3 ER in 4.2 innings to CLE. Cheap stack to run with if you want to go stud pitching!

ONE-OFF PLAYERS TO FILL YOUR LINEUPS:

LUKE VOIT – This guy is on fire right now putting up 24, 18, 18 and 30 DK points in his last 4 contents. He is ONLY 4400 on DK! He is 7 for his last 14 Abs with 5 HOME RUNS! My word this guy is worth a roster spot in any line as hot as he is right now!

JOSE ABREU – His recent performances are just as crazy putting up 16, 49, 32, 21, 17 and 17 DK points and 7 HOME RUNS during that span. He hasn’t had a game less than 16 in a week!

KYLE LEWIS – He is only 4200 and has put up 14, 21 and 22 DK points across his last 3 and is projected to bat in the 3 hole again.

EDUARDO ESCOBAR – He is batting .727 in 11 Abs vs. Marquez with a HR. Only 4000 on DK tonight!

DAVID PERALTA – He is batting .438 off Marquez in 32 Abs with 2 HRs. Only 3500 on DK tonight!

Thanks for reading,

Haze

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