MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:
SHANE BIEBER (11800) – Depending on ownership I likely won’t own any Bieb tonight but he has been solid and great for cash. 23, 21, 19, 32 and 36 DK points across his last 5 starts. The 3 recent <2x starts worry me a little for GPP unless he is projected to be lower owned. 7+ strikeouts in 7 straight starts and also hasn’t allowed over 2 ER in those 7. Road ERA of 2.79 and allowing a .180 opponent average. TB ranks 29th in our L10 game power rankings but still hitting .263 over the last week.
AARON NOLA (11300) – Better matchup tonight for Nola than Bieb vs. NYM who are scoring only 2.8 runs per game and hitting a lowly .224 over the last week. Nola has 6 of last 7 starts at 20+ DK points giving you a good floor. Also has great BVP vs. NYM projected starting lineup as they are only hitting .170 off him through 94 team Abs. Pete Alonzo only 2 for 8, Conforto 4 for 26 with 10 Ks, Ramos 4 for 15, Frazier 0 for 15. Nola also supports a 2.94 ERA at home and allowing a low .222 opponent average.
MAD BUM (10200) – Vegas total of only 7.5 in this game which is great for the pitchers. MadBum has the best matchup on the slate as Padres are hitting .185 over the last week and only scoring 2.9 runs per game. Add in that they are only hitting .180 off him through 133 team Abs and he is an easy pick. If you subscribe to the cheatsheets you would see this massive matchup as EVERY PROJECTED HITTER is ICE COLD (blue) outside of Hosmer who is 1 for 12 off MadBum. Padres on the road are striking out 25.9% of the time.
DAKOTA HUDSON (9200) – Peak price of the year for Hudson but I still think we have to consider him tonight. Coming off 3 solid performances of 19, 31 and 21 DK points. He has went 6.0, 6.2 and 6.0 innings and put up 13 strikeouts while allowing NO EARNED RUNS! YES that is 18.2 innings with 0 ERs across his last 3 starts! 2.97 ERA at home and allowing a .252 batting average. #5 bullpen comes in behind him to close out the game. CIN is hitting .243 over the last week and scoring 4.6 runs per game and rank 20th in our L10 game power rankings.
KOLBY ALLARD (8000) – He has 4 starts this year so let’s dive in. Coming off a great 31 DK point outing @ CHW he went 6.1 with 0 ER and 8 strikeouts. Amazing! However, CHW suck ass right now. He struggled vs. LAA and got tagged for 6 ER, okay I’ll give him a break here as they can be a tough team. Then he has two 16 point starts @ TOR and @ MIL where he combined for 10 innings, 5 ER and 12 strikeouts. Not bad. I think he has a 2x floor tonight and if he could push that 30 point mark he could get to 4x. Is Bieber going to go 4x? 11.8 x 4 = someone grab a calculator I can’t do that math in my head, okay got my phone and it’s 47.2. Bieber is great but not likely to push 50 tonight and you need that 4x for GPP contest so consider Kolb! Matchup is good because Seattle also sucks ass right now! Scoring 3.9 runs per game and hitting .196 over the last week. Kolby is a lefty and SEA is 15-27 vs. LHP and striking out 26.0% of the time. Allard is also allowing a low .235 opponent batting average.
PUNT OPTION with RISK: ELIESER HERNANDEZ (5700) – I doubt I have any shares tonight as I’m playing light so I can get my basement setup for NFL next week. I don’t like any of the cheap pitchers but if you absolutely need a cheap-O pither then look at Hernandez. Coming off 22, 13, 10 and 29 DK points he has been pretty solid. LAD is tough and tagged him for 6 ER but in the other 3 starts he has 16 innings with only 3 ER allowed and 17 strikeouts. Matchup is a tough one vs. the #1 team in baseball in our L10 game power rankings who are scoring 6.2 a game and hitting .295 as a team.
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:
COLORADO GAME – With a total of 14.0 everyone is going to gravitate to this game. I’d recommend having a piece but maybe looking elsewhere because the ownership on this game is going to be insane. If you do want a piece I’d take a Pirate LHH. Senzatela is giving up an 8.42 ERA, .404 wOBA and 2.14 whip along with a .344 batting average vs. LHH! COL also has the worst ranked bullpen over the last 5 weeks. Look at players like Adam Frazier (4500), Bryan Reynolds (13.7 FPPG last week), Josh Bell (expensive but monster LH bat), Colin Moran (4600) putting up 11.2 FPPG over the last week. Heck PIT isn’t a terrible stack if you can afford it but with very little cheap pitchers it’s costly at a 5380 average per hitter for the top 5.
MINNY vs. Edwin Jackson – He has giving up 10 ER across his last 2 starts that totaled 10 innings and 6 walks in those. MIN scoring 7.0 runs per game over the last week and hitting .289 as a team. They come in at #8 in our L10 game power rankings. MIN also has great BVP as they are hitting Edwin at a .340 clip through 50 team Abs.
PHILLY vs. Zach Wheeler – Stack is cheap as you can range from 4140 – 4540 for a 5 man stack. PHI is scoring 7.3 runs per game and hitting .297 as a team over the last week and rank 13th in our L10 game power rankings. Wheeler has put up 6, 6 and -3 DK points across his last 3 starts while giving up 4, 3 and 5 ER in those.
ST LOUIS vs. Trevor Bauer – This should be low owned as they are only projected at 4.3 runs tonight. I wrote about Bauer as a “sell now” candidate earlier in an article and got a lot of slack for it and he has started to spiral out of control. STL is #2 in our L10 game power rankings and scoring 7.3 runs per game and hitting .312 as a team over the last week. You can stack the TOP 5 MOST EXPENSIVE HITTERS for only a 4160 average! That is DIRT CHEAP ROYALS pricing! You can even get down to 3900-3980 if you look away from OZUNA. They are priced down for the Bauer matchup. So let’s look at Bauer from all angles. Last 4 road starts -10, -6, 6 and 0 DK points. He also allowed 7, 9, 3 and 7 ER in those starts. His last 6 starts -10, 30, -6, 36, 6 and 0 DK points. He has been solid at home with a 30 and 36 point outing vs. SDP and CHC. A red hot WASH team tagged him for 9 ER in only 4.1 innings. GPP explosion!
There are several great stacks tonight. HONORABLE MENTIONS: NYY, HOU, ATL and TOR (cheap).
SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS: (-113 / +160 Run Line): I think there is value here on the side and the run line if you want to parlay it up and get a big payday. STL ranks #2 in our L10 game power rankings and scoring 7.3 runs per game while hitting .312 as a team. CIN ranks 20th while hitting only .243. Dakota Hudson has been on fire and his last 3 starts he went 6.0, 6.2 and 6.0 innings and put up 13 strikeouts while allowing NO EARNED RUNS! YES that is 18.2 innings with 0 ERs across his last 3 starts! 2.97 ERA at home and allowing a .252 batting average. #5 bullpen comes in behind him to close out the game. So let’s look at Bauer from all angles. Last 4 road starts he has allowed 7, 9, 3 and 7 ER. He has been solid at home with a 30 and 36 DK point outings vs. SDP and CHC but he is on the ROAD tonight! A red hot WASH team tagged him for 9 ER in only 4.1 innings. Cardinals stay HOT and take advantage of the low line!
PHILLY -130 over NYM: Great matchup for Nola vs. NYM who are scoring only 2.8 runs per game and hitting a lowly .224 over the last week. Nola has 6 of last 7 starts at 20+. Also has great BVP vs. NYM projected starting lineup as they are only hitting .170 off him through 94 team Abs. Pete Alonzo only 2 for 8, Conforto 4 for 26 with 10 Ks, Ramos 4 for 15, Frazier 0 for 15. Nola also supports a 2.94 ERA at home and allowing a low .222 opponent average. NYM are hitting .224 as a team over the last week and scoring only 2.8 runs per game. PHI is scoring 7.3 runs per game and hitting .297 as a team over the last week and rank 13th in our L10 game power rankings. Wheeler has given up 4, 3 and 5 ER in those. If you don’t like the -130 hit the run line for +135!
CLEVELAND over Tampa Bay (-148 / +105 Run Line): Shane Bieber is solid with a 14.8% swinging strike rate, 2.79 ROAD ERA and allowing an opponent average of only .180. Tampa Bay ranks 29th in our L10 game power rankings and 4-6 in their last 10 games. They also have a wRC+ that drops 25 points while they are at home! CLE has a wRC+ that jumps almost 30 points while they are on the road and they rank 12th in our L10 game power rankings and scoring 5.3 runs per game over the last week. Pruitt has been decent with an xFIP of 3.91 but ERA is 5.57 and the 1.36 whip and allowing a .287 opponent average he isn’t the same class of pitcher as Bieber. Take the hotter team and better pitching matchup!
MINNY over DET: (-280 / -175 Run Line): MIN is scoring 7.0 runs per game and hitting .289 as a team over the last week and rank 8th in our L10 game power rankings. DET is 2-8 in their L10 games and rank 25th in our L10 game power rankings and scoring only 3.5 runs per game. Edwin Jackson has been terrible giving up a .335 opponent batting average, 8.70 ERA and 5.70 xFIP. MIN has tagged him at a .340 clip through 50 team Abs with a low 10% strikeout rate. (Suggestion: Parlay the Run Line with another game you like.)
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