MLB Sports Betting Picks & DFS Stacks from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
STACKING is a must in DFS. I prefer to stack 4-5 hitters from one team and then 2-3 from another team for a “mini stack”. You can do 4/4 or 5/3, etc. The idea of stacking is when one hitter is on base and the guy behind him hits him in then you get points for the run scored and also the RBI from the other hitter. I base my stacks on cost per player and how chalky it may or may not be. Here is what I’m looking at today.
STACKS TO CONSIDER:
REDS vs. Riley Smith
You can stack this game up for around 4000 per hitter for a 5 man stack and that is cheap! Riley Smith is a decent pitcher but the 25th ranked bullpen behind looks juicy. They are allowing a 4.77 xFIP and 1.41 whip so far this year. My preferred stack and projected batting order:
2 – Nick Castellanos
4 – Eugenio Surez
5 – Mike Moustakas
6 – Nick Senzel
7 – Jonathan India
** Skipping over Joey Votto in the 3 hole who is only hitting .167 so far this year. Average DFS player stacks the 1-5 or 2-6 hitters blindly so this gives us something contrarian.
BLUE JAYS vs. Jose Quintana
Jose Quintana gave up 4 ERs in 3 1/3 innings in his debut so we are going to attack him and hope he continues his struggles. Wind is blowing 10 mph OUT.
1 – Marcus Semiem – 6 for 11 (.545) off Jose Quintana
2 – Randal Grichuk – BVP only 1 for 7 but he is cheaply priced.
3 – Bo Bichette
4 – Vladimir Guerrero
6 – Cavan Biggio – Sliding down past Gurriel due to the .192 average and going to Biggio who had a .405 wOBA vs. LHP last year hoping he can get something going.
PADRES vs. Jordan Lyles
Vegas implied run total is 5.0 runs but hoping some people pivot since Lyles had such a solid start. Jordan Lyles @KC went 5.2 with 8 Ks and only gave up 2 ERs. Padres only have 52 Abs vs. Lyles but they are hitting .346 with a low 19% K rate against him and the bullpen behind him ranks 23rd. If they can get Lyles out of the game early and beat up on the bullpen there may be some value here. Jordan Lyles finished the 2020 season with an ERA of 7.02 with a 1.56 WHIP and allowing a .285 average. Take a shot here!
1 – Jake Croneworth
3 – Manny Machado
4 – Eric Hosmer
5 – Wil Myers
** I don’t mind taking the 2 hitter Tommy Pham here since he is only 3600 on DK and is 4 for 8 off Jordan Lyles in his career with a HR. He is only hitting .148 this year. The other option if you want to pivot down is Jurickson Profar in the 6 hole who is hitting .286 so far this year and 3 for 5 off Lyles and priced at only 3200 on DK.
RANGERS vs. Chris Paddack
Here is your low owned contrarian stack for the day that is DIRT CHEAP! The 5 highest priced hitters come out to an average of 3680 per hitter so you can load up any SPs you want in your lineup. This stack is straight forward 1-5 hitters as they grade the highest and are giving us the best production. Chris Paddack who was once “elite” had a rough 2020 season ending with a 4.73 ERA and low 8.8 K9 ratio. His first start this year he only went 4 innings and gave up 2 ERs and walked 3 hitters. Right before the start of the season he only went 2.1 innings vs. COL and gave up 8 ER on 7 hits with only 1 K.
PITCHERS TO USE:
JULIO URIAS – This is my highend option over Chris Paddack (see above). He is coming off 27 DK points going 7.0 innings with only 2 ER and 6Ks and that was IN COLORADO!
STEVEN MATZ – He is coming off 31.85 DK poins going 6.1 with only 1 ER and 9 Ks. However, this was against a bad TEX team so don’t get too excited and temper expectations. LAA will be a tougher lineup but still the lower price tag with upside.
ZACH EFLIN – He has 30-35 DK point upside and got off to a solid start against this same ATL team going 7.0 innings with 8Ks and only allowed 1 ER. Can he do it again?
JEFF HOFFMAN – He is one of the lowest 4 priced pitchers on the main slate and I’m curious to see what he does after coming off a 23 DK point start vs. a tough STL lineup he lasted 5.0 innings with 1 ER and 6 Ks. ARI isn’t even close to the STL loaded lineup he faced.
JORDAN LYLES (PUNT) – He is the lowest priced pitcher on DK and coming off 25.75 DK points @ KC going 5.2 with 2 ER and 8 Ks. Worth a shot but facing a tough SDP lineup.
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