Good morning, I'm on my last day of vacation in Florida and wrote up some plays and wanted to share! This last week has been great as we closed out a 9-2 run of our last 11 plays and there were a chunk of (8) games that jumped out so writing up 3 of them and then giving you my insights on all the other plays!
CFL - We also have a CFL projection sheet posted that I will clean up this weekend and have kept it in the premium Facebook group and chat.
HOUSTON (BLANCO) OVER TORONTO (KIKUCHI)
I marked out (8) games that I liked today scrolling through the “Betting Board” on the MLB Cheatsheet and I’ve narrowed it down the (3) games that I am going to write up for today. You can attack this taking the game line or the first 5 line. I don’t mind the game line because HOU has the bullpen advantage as they rank 15th and 4-0 over the last two weeks. TOR ranks 24th with an 0-1 record and 5.31 ERA over that same span. HOU is 8-2 over the last 10 games and coming off a loss last night by 1 run to TOR. TOR is 4-6 after a win last night. Power ranking wise we have HOU crawling up to 4th best over the last two weeks where they are #1 in team batting average (.301), 4th in wRC+ (133), 4th in RBIs (67) and 13th in ISO power (.168) over the last two weeks. TOR isn’t terrible where they slide into the 10th spot but 2 of the last 3 games they have only managed to scrape across a single run losing 3-1 and 8-1.
Blanco on the road is allowing a (.187) BA and overall he is only allowing a (.168) with a 2.49 ERA and 1.01 WHIP and those are great numbers if you are not into MLB stats. Over his last 4 starts he has only allowed 3, 1, 0, and 1 ER and went 6.2, 7.0, 7.0 and 6.0 inning so has been terrific. TOR only has 22 ABs vs. Blanco but they are only 2 for 22.
Kikuchi has been better at home but over his last 3 starts he has allowed 4, 4 and 8 ERs while allowing 4, 8 and 7 hits. Those numbers might not sound awful but when you see his innings pitched of 5.0, 2.0 and 4.0 then it should raise your eye brows. I mean 8 hits and 4 earned runs allowing in 2 innings? His (.305) average allowed on the road is horrible but at home it’s a decent (.249) but in his recent HOME only starts he has allowed 4 runs, 5 runs, 1 run and 5 runs. We also have good BVP numbers as HOU has faced Kuchi 72 times and they are 21 of 72 (.292) with a lower 17% K rate and 7 HOME RUNS! (3) different hitters each of 2 HRs off him and you can find those on the “Main Tab” of the cheatsheet looking at the individual game!
PHILLIES (WHEELER) OVER CUBBIES (IMANAGA)
I thought this line was low for the recent performance of Shota Imanaga. First let’s look at the teams and we see we have the 7th power ranked team vs. 23rd. Cubbies are 2-7 over the last 9 games and averaging only about 3.4 runs per game. Phillies are 7-3 over the last 10 games and don’t blow teams away but putting up 4.2 runs per game. Imanaga is a rookie that is doing well but has the occasional “blow up” game. 2 starts ago he allowed 11 hits and 10 runs vs. NYM and 6 starts ago he allowed 8 hits and 7 runs vs. MIL. I would prefer to have Harper in the lineup but since he’s out we are hoping for Philly to scrape across 3 runs before they get into the bullpen. Zach Wheeler is an ace with a solid bullpen behind him. He has gone at least 7 inning of 4 of his last 5 starts and allowed 2, 1, 8, 1, 1, 0 earned runs. He had one blow up against on the road against BAL but other than that he has been solid. Bullpen behind him ranks 4th.
LA DODGERS (GAVIN STONE) OVER ARIZONA (MENA)
ARI is 3-6 over the last 9 games while LAD is 7-3 over the last 10. LAD constantly putting 4-6 runs on the board and tonight they get to face a rookie pitcher in Christian Mena who has struggled at the lower levels. In AA, now that’s not AAA but double-A he has a 4.66 ERA and 1.35 WHIP with a high K9 ratio. His last 6 starts that I pulled he has allowed 4, 4, 2, 5, 7 and 4 runs so we are looking at a minor league pitcher that has allowed 4+ earned runs in 5 of his last 6 starts that is now going to face one of the hardest lineups in basement with Shohei Ohtani, Freeman, Teoscar, Will Smith, etc. You can attack this game on the game run line or first 5 run line.
NEAR PLAYS THAT DIDN’T MAKE THE CUT:
LAA – LAA is 7-3 over the last 10 but have lost the last 2. I just didn’t have time to look up Davis Daniel to see if he has any good for them but anytime someone is playing OAK it’s worth a look. OAK is 2-7 over the last 9 games and opened as a slight favorite in this game. LAA has a really strong bullpen that ranks 3rd and 4-0 with a 1.50 ERA over the last two weeks.
NYM - They were right on the borderline of plays but that one thing that held me back was that bullpen falling to 24th with a 5.92 ERA. NYM 6-2 over the last 8 games while popping off 6.8 runs game and WAS now 1-7 over the last 8 games scoring only 3.6 runs per game. NYM have won the first two games here 7-2 and 9-7 so if you are going to play it I might look at a first 5 bet or possibly a team total?
CIN – Such a big opened dog against a team that is 3-7 over the last 10 and they have a pitcher on the mound that has been getting blasted. CIN is only 17th in our power rankings and 4-4 over the last 8 so it didn’t make the top cut of plays that I liked but one to consider if you are on the fence. CIN has a strong bullpen that ranks 6th while the NYY bullpen has slid down to 30th with a 5.44 ERA and walking over 3 hitters per 9. I’d consider a CIN team total if nothing else as Rodon has been getting killed on the mound. He is coming off a 5 inning start giving up 10 hits and 8 earned runs, the prior was 4.2 innings with 11 hits and 7 earned runs and the prior was 7 hits and 5 runs in only 5 innings.
ATL – Considered a play on ATL with Chris Sale on the mound since he has been elite but the line feels too large considering the 20th power ranking of the Braves and their 4-6 record over the last 10. I think Sale will do great and that bullpen is solid but can they score enough runs to lay that juice? SFG are 6-2 over the last 8 and they just keep getting it done.
MIN – Another play that I really wanted to make the cut but didn’t want to look up 2 rookie pitchers and dig into them. DET sucks as always and they are 3-7 over the last 10 games and even 1-5 over the last 6 games ranking 27th in our power rakings batting (.209) as a team over the last two weeks. MIN is rolling 7-2 over thelast 9 games and 5th in our power rankings and they have even won 5 of the last 6 games and that one loss was a 3-2 game that was tight. MIN bullpen solid with a 3.13 ERA. Hitting and bullpenwise I love MIN and they are @ HOME where teams always play better but look into the pitchers.
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