MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
RECAP: What a night last night! Chalk night DeGrom gets tagged by the weakest offense in the MLB, meanwhile Jordan Lyles drops 12 Ks with 21 swinging strikes, Calhoun has his 3rd straight multi hit game after his call up, LAD LHH that we posted the screen shot of in our facebook group put up 4 HRs for a great stack and Khris Bryant gets smoking hot with 3 HRs!
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:
BLAKE SNELL (10700) – My favorite stud today. My Royals blasted him twice but if you take out those two starts you have 30.2 innings across 5 starts putting up 29, 34, 30, 33 and 44 DK points and putting up 54 strikeouts! Holds a swinging strike rate of 20.9%. NYY are scoring 4.2 runs per game over the last 7. Solid play pushing around 3x value!
JON LESTER (9200) – Right now I’m fading Lester. That is hard to say with 25, 21 and 34 DK point starts in his last 3. Plus he has gone 19.2 innings without allowing a run and put up 20 Ks. I’m hoping the numbers normalize for him today and someone else can be on the other side. Lester only has an 8.8% swinging strike rate and even though he has a 1.16 ERA his xFIP on the road is over 4.00. Not a bad play at all so if you want to use him you are fine but I’m just hoping that xFIP catches up to him. It is notable that WSN is striking out the 5th most on the slate at 26.6% of the time vs. LHP!
STEVEN MATZ (8600) – Miami just shelled DeGrom last now and now they get Matz coming off the DL…. Take away his last start before his DL stint and then you have 4 starts in a row at 20+ DK points. I don’t think Miami is good enough to put up two good games and NYM take this one!
LUCAS GIOLITO (7500) – My favorite pitcher today coming off 30 and 33 DK point starts going 7.0 and 7.1 innings with 1 and 0 ER and then 8 Ks in both contest. Notable that both of those starts were on the road. His is priced perfect and even if he gets you 2x value that is only 15 points and if he pushes 30 points that is 4x upside!
JOHN MEANS (7500) – Playing for a shit team he has put up 19, 24, 2, 22, and 16 DK points. Those are solid values. I still choose Giolito over Means but if you want to pivot off I guess you could use a Baltimore pitcher. Means has a respectable 13.2% swinging strike rate and facing a CLE team that is striking out 28.0% of the time vs. LHP.
CORBIN MARTIN (7200) – In his debut start he went 5.1 with 2 ER and 9 Ks and put up 27.6 DK points vs. a tough TEX team. Now he gets to face an even tougher BOS team on the road. GPP play at his price tag in the matchup Houston does have the #1 bullpen so if they can get the lead they could hold it for him. Houston is red hot right now.
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:
TEXAS vs. Dakota Hudson – How do you not stack a team that is scoring 7.2 runs per game over the last week and filled with LHH facing a pitcher that has a 5.76 xFIP to LHH with an eye popping 2.83 whip and .532 wOBA. This could get ugly quick!
STL vs. Jurado – STL is loaded with power house hitters but they are also projected to be the highest scoring team on the early slate so I’ll just leave it at that. It’s worthwhile.
HOUSTON vs. Bullpen – Houston scoring 8.8 runs per game last 7 and 5.5 on the year. They have 4 projected hitters with wOBAs over .400 and the highest ceiling of any team. Guys with monster last 14 game ceilings are: Springer 47 points, Bregman 37 points, Correa 28 points, Yuli 26 points and everyone else is still between 15-25! Stack score of 182 on the cheat sheet and teams over 180 have smashed!
CUBBIES vs. Strausburg – Hopefully people won’t stack vs. Straus so we can get his one low owned and sneaky. Washington has a terrible bullpen so if they can get to Straus early they could blow this open. Cubs are hot right now. Bryant had 3 HR last night! Cubs destroyed Scherzer and the bullpen. Cubs 2-3-4-5 projected hitters have 3 of the 4 with a wOBA over .400. And they are priced down for the matchup so you can get these guys for a high price of 4600. That’s cheap compared to Houstons 5900, 5600, 5400 and 5300 hitters in the top 5. Worth a shot!
*** So many stacks I love today – let’s get two more on here!
MILWAUKEE vs. Gausman – On our cheatsheet I pulled the 4 highest wOBA vs. pitcher hand and calculate their last 7 average divided by salary to get a rough stack value. Typically if I get a 4 man bunch over 2.00 then I look at stacking them if it is under 5,000 average. Milwaukee pops with a 2.67 value which is the highest I’ve seen this year and 4850. Yelich is expensive as f%&k at 5800 but then everyone around him is below 5k. Cain 11.1 ppg last 7, Yelich 13.3 ppg last 7, Braun 12.5 ppg last 7, Mouse 12.3 ppg last 7, Grandal 13.8 ppg last 7. Gausman did well vs. ARI last time out going 6.0 with 1 ER and 6Ks and he even had two 30 points games in two of his first 3 starts. However his 4 run stint (prior to last outing) he gave up 3, 1, 5 and 5 ERs. Stack score of 180 on the sheet!
MINNY vs. LeBlanc – Stack score of 178. LeBlanc has an xFIP of 4.49 to LHH and 5.95 to RHH. He is going to see a lot of RHH today and holds a whopping 1.75 whip and allows a .358 wOBA. Priced amazing their 4 man stack score is 2.66 with an average price of 4075. Cheap stack and MIN is scoring 6.0 runs per game over the last 7! See screen shot below!
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