MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
MLB Blitz runs again into Sunday for us! We smashed a nice sports bet with Nationals +250 parlayed with the over 9.5 runs from the article. Seth Lugo was fire for us yesterday going 5.0 innings with 1 ER and 8 strikeouts at almost min price on DK. Our stacks went nuts with LAA dropping 10 runs, White Sox and Giants were so-so at only 4 and 5 runs and when the PIT lineup released it was garbage and everyone was sitting so had to last minute pivot off them. Early start today so narrowing down my pitchers and stacks!
PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:
SHANE BIEBER – Soft matchup vs. a MIL team ranking 25th in L10 game power rankings and 22nd in runs per game. They hold a massive 28% strikeout rate over the last 14 days. Biber has been outstanding with 28, 29, 36 and 39 DK points across his last 4 starts. Those also combined for 25.0 innings, 2 ERs and 41 strikeouts. I feel good about hitting 3x value today.
TYLER GLASNOW – Putting up 34 and 38 DK points in his last two starts I was shocked to see his price tag sitting at only 8700 today. He put up 13.0 innings in those two with 2 ER and 22 strikeouts. MIA is hardly a tough matchup ranking 19th in the L10 game power rankings, 23rd in last 14 runs per game. They also hold a massive strikeout rate at 27% over the last 14 days. Glasnow has a K9 rate this year of a whopping 15.1 per 9 so he should rack up some easy points today.
TEJAY ANTONE – He is getting the start today but don’t know how many innings he will throw. He has 20.1 innings this year with a 2.66 ERA, 0.84 whip and allowing a .118 batting average. Now his BABIP is .132 so I would expect that to come up but his xFIP is only 3.70 so he is a solid pitcher at only 6400 that you could punt with and get 2x value. He has a K9 rate of 12.0 this year and facing a PIT team that is 24th in L10 game power rankings, 26th in last 14 runs per game and holding a 26% strikeout rate of the last 14 days.
STACKS TO CONSIDER:
CHICAGO WHITE SOX VS. MATT HARVEY (21st Bullpen) – This seems to be a constant in my articles, bets and stacks. We were all over the CLE stack when Harvey started on 09/01. So how did they do? Well he lasted 1.1 innings and gave up 5 ERs. Harveys last 5 starts in DK points are 0.3, -11, -2, 5 and -3.7. ERA over 14 and xFIP of 6.61, whip of a massive 3.00 and allowing only a .462 batting average. CHW are expensive but I could see them hanging 10 runs today on the Royals.
DETROIT TIGERS VS. RICH HILL (5TH Bullpen) – I’m going to drop down and give you some cheaper stacks today since most of the average DFS players know the chalk and high end stacks to play. Tigers come in around ONLY 3500 per player for the top 5 man stack. They are 2nd in last 10 game power rankings and 7th in runs per game over the last 14 days and even 5th in wRC+ over that same time span. Rich Hill has an xFIP of 5.27 and a whip of 1.44 and Vegas only projects them at 4.0 runs but this is worth a GPP flier for a stack! In his last 3 appearances he has 11.0 innings, 7 ERs and an eye popping 9 walks.
LATER SLATES NOT ON MAIN:
If you are playing the other slates I like stacking Padres vs. Fiers they are hitting .358 off him with a low 13% K rate. I also like the Giants stacks as they are a tick better vs. LHP and Alex Young has a 4.57 xFIP and the 25th ranked bullpen behind him. SFG ranks 7th in L10 game power rankings and top 4 in all of our other team stats.
SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
CLEVELAND (SHANE BIEBER) – MIL ranks 25th in L10 game power rankings, 28th K rate over the last 14 days and in comes Shane Bieber who is on fire. Biebers last 4 starts combined for 25.0 innings, 2 ERs and 41 strikeouts. (Suggest to bet Run Line -OR- Parlay it with the White Sox)
CHICAGO WHITE SOX vs. MATT HARVEY – Last time we went against Matt Havey was facing CLE and he lasted 1.1 innings and gave up 5 ERs. Harveys last 5 starts in DK points are 0.3, -11, -2, 5 and -3.7. ERA over 14 and xFIP of 6.61, whip of a massive 3.00 and allowing only a .462 batting average. (Suggest to bet Run Line -OR- Parlay it with the White Sox)
SAN DIEGO PADRES – Yesterday we had the Padres vs. Fiers and they ended up throwing a Sean M. so we got a “no action” play on our bet. Today Fiers is coming in to throw against a red hot Padres team who ranks #1 in our L10 game power rankings. They are hitting him at a .358 clip and low 13% strikeout rate. Oakland has a solid bull pen but we have them winning 6.4 to 4.5 in our model and line is only -110.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS – They rank 7th in our L10 game power rankings and facing ARI who is 23rd. Giants have incredible stats since that outburst in COL so I won’t focus on the “stats” portion. Our model has the SFG winning 7.5 to 4.0 so I don’t mine the -135 or run line bet in this spot. ARI has been ice cold ranking 30th in runs per game, team batting average and wRC+ over the last 14 days and they are 2-8 in their L10 games. Cueto has been surging this year and allowing only a .217 batting average. In 69 team Abs vs. Cueto they are batting only .145 with a 33% strikeout rate.
PITCHER PROP BETS:
I like Shane Bieber and Tyler Glasnow OVER but I don’t have the line posted yet on my book. Teams they are facing have high strikeout rates over the last two weeks and both pitchers have elevated K9 rates right now in good spots.
Thanks for reading,
Haze