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MLB Sports Betting Pick for Saturday!


NYM (DEGROM) > OAKLAND (WALDICHUK)

While everyone is focused on College Football today we get some great value on the MLB slate. Today we have the best pitcher on the slate with a red hot team facing a horrible team and the worst pitcher on the slate. This is a spot we can take advantage of for sports betting or same game parlays.


Ken Waldichuk – He only has 17.2 innings but during that span he has allowed a 1.58 whip and giving up a .284 batting average. The bullpen behind him ranks 24th in our custom rankings so not worried about a shut down type of game when he gets pulled. His last start was @HOU so it was a tough matchup but only lasted 2.2 innings and allowed 5 hits and 5 ER and the prior start @TEX he went the full 5 innings but gave up 8 hits and another 5 ER.


Jacob DeGrom – Strikeout prop anyone? His recent starts look like this 13, 10, 8, 9, 9, 9, 10 and 12 strikeouts. Same game parlays on DK you can get 8+ (-350) which feels like a floor or hit an average 9+ (-160), 10+ (+110) or go for the gusto at 11+ (+240).


SAME GAME PARLAY OPTIONS:


DeGrom 8+ Strikeouts

NYM over 2.5 runs

Oakland NFRI (No run first inning)

3 LEGS PAYS (-115) *Perfect for straight bet.


Wanna go for a big payday? Maybe you have a free bet and want to maximize value? Here we go!


DeGrom 11+ strikeouts (+240 leg really cranks up the payout)

NYM over 3.5 runs

NYM/NYM (First 5 / Moneyline)

3 LEGS pays +575


You can add the NRFI for Oakland only but it’s (-650) and I don’t like laying that much juice on a leg when DeGrom has allowed 6 ER across his last 2 starts which combine for 11.0 innings. I left it on the first wager but the higher risk I removed it. If you don’t like the 11 strikeouts in the higher risk parlay I recommend going to 9+ or 10+. DeGrom has only hit 11+ 3 times this year but he is in a good spot facing an OAK team that has a 27% strikeout rate over the last two weeks. DeGrom has hit 10+ in each of the last 2 starts and 4 times this season and if you want to go 9+ he has hit that number in 7 of the last 8 starts.


HOW I’M BETTING THIS:


DEGROM 9+ STRIKEOUTS

NYM OVER 3.5 RUNS

NYM/NYM (F5/ML)

PAYOUT IS +220 (We only need to win this 31% of the time to be a profitable wager!)


SCREEN SHOTS FROM MLB CHEATSHEET:

Here we see OAK has a 27% strikeout rate over the last couple weeks which is massive!



When betting NYM team total OVER I want to see how many runs that have been scoring per game over the last 8-12. Here we can see they were shutout against MILW but every other game they have scored 9, 7, 7, 7 and 5 so taking over 2.5 or over 3.5 feels pretty safe against a horrible pitcher and bad bullpen. I don't mind a small bet on over 5.5 if you want to get crazy!


ADDITIONAL MLB NOTES:


Framber Valdez has 7, 8, 11, 8 and 8 strikeouts last 5 starts.

Bubic has allowed 7, 10, 6, 5, 9, 8 and 10 hits in recent starts.

Fedde has allowed 7, 5, 4, 9, 3, 7, 6 and 8 hits in recent starts.

Hutchison just faced CHW in his last start and got crushed lasting only 4.2 innings giving up 7 hits and 6 ER. Has also allowed 7, 9, 5 and 6 hits in last 4 starts.

Chad Kuhl (in Colorado) has allowed 8, 6, 6, 7 and 7 hits.


Good Luck!

On the website we posted our College Football Best Bets!