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I’m currently on vacation in Dauphin Island, AL and it’s awesome! I don’t have my MLB pick sheet with me so I’m writing this up today as there is rain in the forecast! We got a good hammer the other night with NYM First 5 (-0.5) but it was a close one! Found some plays that I like today so wanted to share them with everyone!
SAN DIEGO PADRES – FIRST 5 INNINGS (-0.5) -180
Blake Snell is on the mound today for the Padres and outside of a rough start @COL (which is expected) he has only allowed 1, 0, 1 and 1 ER in the other 4 starts. Now who did he face in those starts it the question we should be asking. He faced @NYM, @LAD, SF and MIN so 2 of those foes were tough opponents. Rockies hold a plus .500 record at home but on the road they fall to 16-33 and their wRC+ falls from 98.7 down to 80.3. They have also lost 4 in a row and the last 3 to this Padres team. Chad Kuhl has decent overall stats but can’t help but notice his ROAD split where his WHIP goes from a 1.31 up to 1.68 and average allowed slides from .258 to .279. Kuhl on the road allowed 5 ER @MIL in only 2.1 innings and 5 ER @ARI in only 5.0 innings. Taking the Juan Soto Padres with a stud pitcher on the mound.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS OVER CHICAGO CUBS
You can hit this game on the money line (-170), First 5 run line (-125) or game (-1.5) +115 just depending on the risk you want to take. Cubs have dropped 3 straight and 4 of the last 5. STL has been great @HOME with a 30-20 record and their wRC+ jumps from 101.2 to 117.5 when at home. I also just noticed on the MLB Cheatsheet that they have a wRC+ of 105.8 vs. RHP but today they face a LHP and their wRC+ is 123! They also have their highest stats at home and facing LHP so this should be a good spot. Both pitchers are pretty solid but taking the better team at HOME today. Mikolas has only allowed 1 ER in each of his last 3 home starts across 7.0, 7.1 and 6.0 innings.
LA DODGERS OVER SAN FRANCISCO
LAD is always a great team to end a parlay with because they play late and then they are always a favorite taking heavy money so you can “cover” the parlay and get a solid dog for a small portion of your bet and lower your risk. Line feels a little low today for a Dodgers team that is 16-4 over the last 20 games facing a Giants team that is 3-7 over the last 10. Dodgers have won the first 2 games of this series 8-2 and 9-5 and they also rank #2 in our last 10 customer power rankings. Giants have only won 3 games in the last 12 and that was against the lowly Cubs winning only by 1, 2 and 4 runs. Alex Cobb and Julio Urias are great pitchers but the difference for me is the bullpen where Dodgers rank #1 in our power rankings and Giants are at the other end ranking 26th. Julio Urias has only allowed 2, 0, 1, 5, 1, 3, 1, 2, 1 ER in recent stats so really only had game where he got roughed up and has been solid in all the others. Cobb just faced LAD and allowed 4 ER in 5.2 innings on 8 hits. I’m leaning LAD (-1.5) +105 in this spot for my parlay.
CLEVELAND / ARIZONA OVER 8.5 RUNS
Tommy Henry is getting called up to make his MLB debut and he held a 3.83 ERA and 1.34 whip at the AAA level so CLE should statistically be good for 3-5 runs at a minimum. Originally I was looking for a CLE F5 bet but after looking at Shane Bieber and his recent starts I decided against it. He has allowed 1, 6, 5, 3 and 3 ER in recent starts so hardly the “elite” Bieber that we are used too. Taking a shot on the OVER in this spot.
PARLAY OF THE DAY:
ST LOUIS (-170) + SDP F5 (-.5) + LAD (-1.5) – PAYS +400
Good Luck everyone I’m walking down to the beach now for some R&R!