MLB Stacks and Stats for Saturday from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Yesterday on my MLB Breakdown video on our YouTube channel I gave you the Miami Marlins as a low owned cheap stack and they put up 8 runs. My other lower owned stack was Cleveland who has been ice cold coming into the game and they hung a 10 spot on the board. I have Cleveland stacked with MIN/KC and after that game was postponed my lineups were already locked. 2 of my lineups still cashed missing 2-4 different players from the MIN/KC game allowing me to break even on the night. Pretty crazy how MLB works out sometimes.
HOUSTON ASTROS – I typically don’t go after the chalky stacks but today is different. Houston is playing at home where they are 5-4 with a wRC+ of 124 on the year and a low 19.5% strikeout rate. Their team batting average is 14 points higher at home and wRC+ is 30 points higher. Now looking at the RHP vs. LHP splits they have a decent 95.5 wRC+ vs. RHP but vs. LHP they jump to 143.1. Their batting average jumps from .225 vs. up to .274 vs. LHP. Today they face LHP Nick Margevicius who has been decent this year in little spurts but in 2019 he had 57 innings with an ERA of 6.79, 1.61 whip and allowed batting average of .307. When he comes out of the game Seattle has the 29th ranked bullpen so far this year that is also giving up a 5.90 xFIP, 1.50 whip and 1.78 HR per 9.
Now how does Houston stack up? They have some monster states vs. LHP. Everyone in the projected starting lineup has a wRC+ over 100 besides Jose Altuve. We have Alex Bregman who carrie a .530 wOBA and 247 wRC+ vs. LHP, Guirrel has a .459 wOBA and 199.9 wRC+, Toro (who is dirt cheap at 2500 on DK) has a .495 wOBA and 224 wRC+, Martin Maldonado (should catch tonight and he is my favorite catcher on the slate) with a .518 wOBA and 239.5 wRC+ (and only 3500 on DK).
This stack is CRAZY CHEAP in comparison to other games with similar projected totals. The total opened at 9.0 and is already up to 9.5 with 88% of the bets on the over. Yordano may hit the lineup again tonight and he is a great play if he is in. Make sure to watch the starting lineups.
COLORADO ROCKIES – This will be chalky so I won’t spend a ton of time on it but if you can get a couple hitters from Colo with your Houston stack I love that line. Blackmon has been on fire putting up an average of over 15 DK points per game over the last week. Daniel Murphy is over 10 points per game and is 4 for 5 off Kyle Gibson in his career with no strikeouts. Gibson has 15 innings this season with a 4.11 ERA but allowing a 1.57 whip and .286 average. Throwing in Colorado might be disastrous for him tonight! Stacking the game is expensive but Murphy is only 4600 and Blackmon is an eye popping 6100.
FAVORITE ONE OFF PLAYERS TO FILL UP YOUR LINEUPS:
JUAN SOTO – Soto is locked in and putting up close to 20 DK points per game over the last two weeks and has a ceiling of 35 DK points in the last 14 days. He is priced up at 5400 but he is 3 for 7 with a HR off Woji and should hit in the 4 hole tonight giving him big upside for RBIs.
ROBBIE GROSSMAN – I have to give you a cheap guy if you give you an expensive guy, right? Grossman comes in at only 3300 and he is 2 for 5 off Gausman and has a .448 wOBA and 192 wRC+ vs. RHP and should hit in the heart of the Oakland order. Gausman has been decent this year in 20 innings but with the 27th ranked bullpen behind him and Oakland ranks 3rd in L10 power rankings I’ll take some Abs from Grossman.
JAKE CRONEWORTH – He is only 2900 on DK and putting up 6-7 DK points per game which is good for 2x value and you can plug him into 1B/2B positions. I decent punt play if he is in the starting lineup.
MICHAEL CHAVIS – I don’t understand the pricing on him at 2600 on DK. That is almost min priced and he is good in 1B/2B positions. He is putting up 11 DK points per game over the last week which is the highest on the Red Sox team and has a ceiling of 24 DK points in the last 14 days. Paxton is solid but Chavis has a .432 wOBA vs. LHP and 173 wRC+ and he is almost free allowing you to get Juan Soto and Blackmon into your Houston stacks!
SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
PARLAY: HOUSTON (-1.5) / WASHINGTON / COLORADO +336 (That means the wager pays 3.36 units for each 1 unit wagered. So $10 pays $33.60, $100 pays $336.)
Thanks for reading,