MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
What a night last night! I took some time and put together a quick article with a few stacks and they exploded. I put (3) $3 entries in the 3 man and finished 4th, 24th and another one across the line and was close to taking down the GPP. My $9 ended up turning into $245 at the end of the night. I wrote about Jose Abreu and having great BVP and a solid lineup filler at only 4200 and he smashed 3 HOME RUNS and put up 49 DK points. The Padres stack also just smashed and they have hit 5 grand slams in 6 games now. Wow! We have two slates today we are going to dive into and what a great day for sports with NASCAR, PGA Playoffs, MLB and NBA going on!
STACKS TO CONSIDER:
MINNESOTA TWINS – (12pm) I love stacking teams like the Twins, White Sox and Indians those are my favorite stacks. I like in KC so I usually avoid on or off KC games but with somewhat limited upside I have to turn to the Twinnies today. They come in CHEAP at 4160 per person for the top 5 man stack and they face off again Kris Bubic. Bubic is a rookie who is decent but can get into trouble. He just faced MIN and gave up 2 ER in 4.1 innings but he had 4 WALKS in that game. His prior start vs. CIN he gave up 5 ER in 5.0 innings. In very limited innings he has struggled vs. LHH so that is who I am targeting for the majority of the stack and want to wrap around Nelson Cruz. Cruz is only 1 for 1 off him but that was a HR. MIN should have 4 LHH and then 2 switch hitters. Bubic has given up a .308 average and 6.78 xFIP vs. LHH.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS – (12pm) On the other side I also like the Royals for a stack as they come in DIRT CHEAP at only 3640 per player for a 5 man stack and that is bottom of the barrel pricing! This stack has to start with Maikel Franco at only 3200 who is 6 for 13 (.462) with 2 HR off Matt Wisler. On the surface people see Matt Wisler with a 1.50 ERA, 1.00 whip and .143 batting average. However, he has an xFIP of 5.36 and his BABIP (batting average for ball I play) is a unsustainable .154!
MILWAUKEE BREWERS – (12pm) They have been semi-cold and rank 25th in the last 10 game power rankings but if they are going to pop anytime soon then today might be that day. They face off against JT Brubaker who has an xFIP over 5.70. No BVP against the rookie but even if JT has a decent start when he comes out of the game he gets to face the 25th ranked bullpen with an xFIP of 4.97 on the year and a massive 1.58 whip! The reason I like this stack is because it is CHEAP coming in at 4120 per player. There are only 2 guys projected in the lineup over 4000 and that is Yelich and Hiura and everyone else is 4000 or less. GPP only stack and would not use for cash due to the risk!
TEXAS RANGERS – (3pm) Rangers jump out at me for the 3pm slate and I’m trying to get this posted so people have time to read it. Stack is CHEAP at 3820 per player and they face Justin Dunn and his 4.7% swinging strike rate (yes that is really low incase you are wondering!). Wow this team doesn’t have much fire power so GPP only. Dunn has an xFIP of 7.24 on the year with a .234 BABIP. He is coming off a start vs. LAD where he only lasted 2.0 innings and gave up 6 ER with only 1 K. No my favorite stack but limited action on this slate for me.
PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:
YU DARVISH (12pm) – Darvish has put up 4 solid starts of 24, 37, 22 and 30 DK points but he is priced at 11000 on DK and has a tough matchup vs. the White Sox. Darvish has an xFIP of 3.28 which is solid as a rock and his BABIP is even a little high at .288. He has a 15.2% swinging strike rate this year and has been solid. I could see playing him for a solid floor but I could also see fading him against a red hot White Sox team. Either way I’m good with it and just wanted to give you the stats behind him.
DANIEL PONCE DE LEON (12pm) – I like Ponce because he is only 7800 on DK and facing an ice cold CIN team that we have projected for only 3.5 runs which is less than the 4.6 Vegas has on them right now. Ponce has a 6.14 ERA which looks horrible but he has limited innings this year. Last year he had a 3.70 ERA and allowing a low .207 batting average. His xFIP is 3.54 which means he has been unlucky and his .300 BABIP allowed proves that. He has the #4 bull pen behind him so if they can get a lead they should be able to hold onto the win. CIN is hardly a scary team to face as they are 11-14 on the year, 6-7 on the road with a 72.4 wRC+ and vs. RHP they are 6-12 with a 23.1% strikeout rate. Ponce has faced some tough teams @CHC, @MIN and @MIN again. His last two starts he only went a total of 7 innings but had 15 Ks so we have GPP upside if can limit the walks.
CORBIN BURNES (12pm) – So I was laying in bed last night and looking through the pitchers for today while waiting for my Padres game to finish and Burnes jumped out at me. At only 7400 on DK he has put up 16, 12 and 23 DK points with 5, 5 and 8 strikeouts over his last 3. He has yet to allow more than 2 ER in a start but has 3 BB in each of his starts. He has a solid K9 rate of 12.4 with a swinging strike rate of 13.9% and his xFIP is sitting around the 4.00 mark. Vegas has PIT projected at 4.0 runs and we have them at 3.1. PIT has been ice cold and they don’t have a custom graded player of 85 and 6 of them are in the “black range” which means they are really low. 6 of the projected starts are averaging less than 5 FPPG over the last week putting them in the ice cold “blue range” on our sheet. They rank 24th in the L10 game power rankings and 3-7 in their last 10 games. Vs. RHP PIT has a wRC+ that drops from 135.7 (great number) down to only 57.9. Corbin is a great GPP play with upside if he can also limit the walks.
JOSH FLEMING (12pm) – If you need a punt he is only 5600 (almost min price on DK) and could gave you 2x. He is a 24 year old kid that posted a 3.57 ERA between AA and AAA last year.
DYLAN BUNDY (3pm) – Bundy got tagged by San Fran of all teams in his last start for 4 ER in 4.0 innings. Prior to that he put up 36 and 42 DK points and both of those starts he had 10 Ks. So which Bundy do we get today? He has a tough matchup on the slate vs. OAK who is red hot right now but he has decent BVP against them. His BVP numbers include 95 Abs and allowing a low .232 average and 33% K rate. I don’t mind rolling him out for GPP but cash I would be worried.
MIKE MINOR (3pm) – Last year Minor had a solid 3.59 ERA and allowed a .244 average and had a great year. This year he is struggling with a 6.94 ERA but xFIP indicates he should be closer to 4.53 and allowing a .271 average. He still has a swinging strike rate over 10% and a K9 ratio of 9.6 which is solid. His BABIP is a whopping .319 which is really high and showing that he has been unlucky. Today he gets to face a SEA team that has a wRC+ vs. LHP that drops from 96.2 down to 66.3, their batting average also drops from .238 as a team (v. RHP) down to .188 vs. LHP. Yes Minor is a LHP incase you were going to go look that up. SEA at home even has a wRC+ of 76.6 and batting .213. Hardly a scare team and Minor could be a sneaky pivot down off Bundy with a better matchup.
LUKE WEAVER (3pm) – Weaver at only 7400 gets to face a red hot SF team that has won 5 straight I believe. Last year Weaver had a 2.94 ERA in 64.1 innings and allowing a low .207 batting average. This year he is off to a rough start with a 9.16 ERA in 18.2 innings and allowing a whopping .313 batting average. I can point to his BABIP and that pretty much explains the difference of last year vs. his slow start this year. His BABIP is a whopping .360 which is one of the highest on the entire slate of pitchers for the day. He still has a solid K9 ratio of 11.1 and a swinging strike rate over 10%. He will get back on track soon and I’ll have him in my GPP lineup incase that day is today!
ONE-OFF PLAYERS TO FILL YOUR LINEUPS:
J.D. MARTINEZ – He is expensive today but with the cheap pitching he should be easy to fit into your lineups. He is facing LeBlanc today who is a LHP and JD crushes LHP. He is also 6 for 14 (.429) with 3 HR off him already. His wOBA is 110 points higher vs. LHP and his strikeout rate is 5% less.
AUSTIN MEADOWS – I am still looking into him today but his BVP jumps off the sheet at me. He is 7 for 12 (.583) with a HR off Thorton. His stats vs. RHP are solid with a .444 wOBA, and 189.4 wRC+. Is a big game coming?
AJ POLLOCK – I can’t get off Pollock while he is priced this low. He is only 4300 on DK and has a great BVP of 6 for 11 (.545) off Antonio S.
Thanks for reading,