NBA 6-Pack of Prize Picks for Thursday!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
Very light slate tonight before the All Star break with only 3 games so let's dig in and see if we can't find some plays!
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ANTHONY EDWARDS - UNDER 38.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS + ASSISTS
He has been UNDER this number in 6 of the last 7 games and last time out MIN put up 124 points and he scored 32 points and still didn't get there ending with 38. WAS is a really solid rebounding team and they allow the 6th least amount of rebounds. You can see above in the prior games against strong rebounding teams (DEN/ORL) he fniished with a PRA of only 25, 27 and 29. I'm going to take a shot on the under.
PATRICK WILLIAMS - UNDER 19.5 POINTS + REBOUNDS + ASSISTS
He has been under this number in 7 of 9 games and faces a strong MIL team that is 9th in points allowed, 7th in 3PM allowed and 17th in rebounds. Over his recent games he has 15, 10, 22, 4 and 16. The majority of the time he is "well under" this number and when he does squeak over it's barely going over.
NIKOLA VUCEVIC - UNDER 24.5 POINTS + ASSISTS
Wow, three under plays is very unusual for me but hey why not take some chances! I love some Nikola Vucevic but tonight this line feels high. He averags only 2.3 assists per game over the last 4 and he is not big assist player so we get a little value from his 20.5 points prop to 24.5 by adding in the assist. MIL is tough allowing the 9th least amount of points and they allow the 7th least amount of points in the paint. As you can see above his recent games he only has 19, 13, 14 and 15 points while putting up 3, 1, 4 and 1 assist. Given that recent performance and the tough matchup leaning on the under.
MASON PLUMLEE - OVER 7.5 REBOUNDS + ASSISTS
This is kind of an "odd" play that popped on the PrizePicks tab so wanted to dig into it. In his last 10 games he has been OVER this 10 times for a 10-0 OVER run. his last time out for the Clippers he only played 17 minutes but put up 8 boards and 3 assists so he got OVER this number in just 17 minutes. Now he was traded to the Clippers and that was his debut so hopefully he will play more than 17 minutes as he was playing 28-31 minutes per game before the trade. I like taking a shot on these low numbers.
KAWAHI LEONARD - OVER 40.5 FANTASY SCORE
In the screen shot below you can see his "fantasy score" for the last 10 games. He was on a nice 6-0 OVER streak before missing 2 in a row and then bouncing back with a 52.4 fantasy score game the last time out. What I like about this play is when he did miss this number of 40.5 it was only by 3ish points and less than a point in the other but he has 8 games here he was well over the number and most of them were by 10+ points giving us a high floor and cushion to take a shot at the over.
CHRIS PAUL - OVER 36.5 FANTASY SCORE
The screen shot below will show you the "fantasy score" for the last 10 games. First you have to understand the scoring on PrizePicks and they give you 3 points for a block, 3 points for a steal and 1.5 points for an assist. Now, Chris Paul is a STEAL and ASSIST animal which is why he has a high ceiling in fantasy score columns. Look at the screen shot above and you can see his STEALS 2-2-3-5-2 over the last 5 games and his assists are 19, 9, 8, 12, 14 and 8. He averages around 12 assists per game (18 fantasy score points) and 2 steals per game (6 fantasy score points) so that gives you 24 points before you count any rebounds or actual points & blocked shots. He is on a 4-0 "OVER" run and 3 of those 4 games have been 47+ fantasy score points putting him 10+ over the number. Take a shot at the over!
HONORABLE MENTION:
TERANCE MANN - OVER 9.5 POINTS
While I was writing this article and grabbing screen shots this play popped out at me. 5 games in a row with double digit points scored and an average of 14.8 PPG over the last 4 games. I like taking over 9.5.
RECAP FROM YESTERDAY:
You will see random screen shots like this hit Twitter & Facebook as I try to dig back through the stats and see how plays did at least 4-5 days per week. The far left arrow will show you the result of the player if they went OVER or UNDER and the arrow on the right will show you want I sorted it by. Now I'm not a projection guy but I follow and watch them because people love projections. Roto Projected OVERS were only 15-12 but in this screen shot you an see the UNDERS and they were a whopping 29-2! My eyes popped out when I saw that and was excited to share. There are days the sheets will just completely whiff but there are days where they are just fire also!
CHEATSHEET LINE Picks went 21-4 over the top 25 plays!
LAST 7 DAY AVERAGE Plays went 17-4
Good Luck Everyone,
Haze!