NBA Sports Betting Report (March 9th, 2020) from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
New ALGO projected scores are on fire! We had a hole in the margins that I noticed and was going to apply a quick fix. Now our NBA sheets auto update and have the games as Tier 1, Tier 2 or Slight Lean for the sides if we are looking at a play. We went 5-1 last night on sides and had a +5.5 and +8 dog projected to win outright and both won!
Definitions & References:
O/E is offensive efficiency and that is how many points scored per 100 possessions.
D/E is defensive efficiency and that is how many points allowed per 100 possessions.
PLAYS TO CONSIDER:
RECOMMENDED PLAY: CHA +4.5 <Favorite Play!>
ALGO PROJECTED SCORE: CHA winning by 10 or more.
ANALYSIS: Sheet is popping off some crazy stats in this one. CHA has a better eFG% by +13% and that is a HUGE number, typically we see 2-4%. ATL’s eFG% right now ranks 30th over the L3 games while CHA is 3rd best in the NBA over the same span. CHA also shooting the 3 ball 13% better and we have them projected to have about 10 more FT attempts in this game which is nice when you are taking points. CHA is leading the O/E column 1.15 (5th best) vs. 0.95 (30th) and D/E are pretty tight at 1.13 to 1.15. CHA should be able to control this game as they are projected to dominate the boards and they play at the lowest pace in the NBA at 93.5. Cha is only allowing 43.7 opponent boards per game over the L3 and ALT is allowing 62.3! Wow! Neither team is great but I’m riding the hot team getting +4.5 points. I don’t mind a play on the under 223.5. Vegas opened this at 225 and it’s down to 223.5. We have it projected anywhere from 207-213 so safely on the under.
RECENT GAMES: I like to look at the recent games and compare the opponents because stats can skew if a team is playing dominate NBA teams or tanking teams. CHA is impressive beating HOU 108-99, then only losing to Denver by 2 and Spurs by 1. They only lost by 8 to MIL and prior to that beat TOR by 3. Solid teams and they are playing close games. ATL lost by 17 to Memphis, lost by 6 to a terrible WAS team that doesn’t play defense and then another loss to Memphis 127-88.
BETTING TRENDS: CHA is 6-0 ATS in their L6 games. CHA total has gone under of 9 of last 11 games.
RECOMMENDED PLAY: TOR +4.5 <My pick, not the sheet.>
ALGO PROJECTED SCORE: I like to see the L3 Model AND the New Algo on the same side but they are split here. L3 has TOR winning the game by 8 and the New Algo has Utah winning by 7. Sheet has a slight lean to Utah -4.5 but I don’t like it.
ANALYSIS: These two teams are almost dead on in the efficiency stats but the main difference is TOR playing at a pace that is 9.6 more possessions per game and scoring 13.4 more points per game. Everything in this game is close: Blocks & Steals 13.4 to 13.0, Turnovers 12.0 to 14.0, O/E 1.13 to 1.10 and D/E 1.06 to 1.04. There is the ever so slightest edge in rebounding to Utah as most games they are -1 and TOR is -6. In a game this close I have to take the points here with Toronto at +4.5.
RECENT GAMES: TOR beat SAC by 5, GSW by 8, PHO by 9 and then lost to Denver. Utah squeaked by DET winning by 6, BOS by 5, NYK by 8, CLE by 13 and WAS by 10.
BETTING TRENDS: TOR is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. TOR totals have gone over in 4 of last 5. TOR is 7-1 ATS in their L8 games vs. Utah.
MILW vs. DEN – I didn’t break down this game because there is no Giannis so the stats change drastically when a player like this is not playing. We have the slightest of leans to Denver -5.5 but I think this game is going to be close to that number and I don’t feel confident in giving out Denver. When Giannis is ON the court they score 115.6 and allow 99.3 and when he is OFF the court they score 112.9 and allow 106.3. So much close games when he is off. MILW played last night and lost to PHO in a high scoring affair so I’m worried about their fatigue for this game.
FINAL RECOMMENDATIONS: Bet CHA as that is the best play on the board and the other games carry risk. I don't mind a small parlay with all DOG Moneylines as that would have a great payout and has a solid shot!
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