NBA Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Today I made a YouTube Video Breakdown AND Article, let me know which you prefer!
YouTube Video Link: https://youtu.be/Ly0iapKLrbM
NBA is changing throughout the day so if you are new to NBA DFS then you need to be ready to make pivotal moves 30 minutes prior to lock. Just another reminder if you are new that was post this NBA CheatSheet every Thursday in our “Free” Facebook group for people to try out. (Link is at the bottom of article.) I post it in the morning and then update and post it again 60-90 minutes prior to lock.
VALUE PLAYS:
It is difficult to project a low priced guy this early in the day. Most of the best value plays pop up inside that last hour prior to lock. I would suggest no matter what tools you are using that when finding a value play look at their FPPM (Fantasy Point Per Minute) production over the season and last 5 games. I see so many “value plays” that are chalky but the guy has a FPPM of 0.65 or 0.72 and they just don’t do anything. I prefer guys with a FPPM over 1.00 but at least over 0.90 at a minimum. Also, a GUARD/CENTER value play usually performs better than a random forward because they are more involved. That’s just my two cents.
PLAYERS WE LIKE TONIGHT:
YouTube Video Link: https://youtu.be/Ly0iapKLrbM
TYLER HERRO – Herro is our #2 Boom% play and he is on FIRE right now putting up 6x+ in all 3 of his last games and projected to play another 35+ minutes tonight. He has put up 38, 43.3 and 43 DKPs in his last 3 games and priced at only 6300 on DK and FD.
CHRIS PAUL – He is out top GPP Algo player and why not he has hit 6x his current salary in 4 of his last 5 games. Anyone that can push 50 DKPs and priced in the high 7K range is definitely on my list. FPPM is up from 1.17 to 1.50 over the last 5 games.
TERRY ROZIER – Rozier comes in at our #3 Boom% play on the NBA cheatsheet. He is priced at 7900 on DK and only 7K on FD. His last two games he has 53.5 and 57.3 DK points and both of those are around the LeBron averages per game but over 2,000 cheaper.
ZACH LAVINE – Playing SAC with a 235 game total on a small 5 game slate Zach LaVine has to be considered. He is 9200 and in the last 5 games he has highs of 56.3 and 64.8 DKPs and taking 20+ FG attempts per game.
JAE CROWDER – Value player at 5200 on DK and 4800 on FD he Jae Crowder who is only coming off two 7x games around 35 DKPs each and could get another start tonight. Keep an eye on him!
KELLY OUBRE – Priced under 7K is Oubre who is coming off back to back 43+ DKP games. His FPPM is up from 1.02 on the season to 1.11 over the last 5 games for a +9% increase and his usage rate is 22.2.
JIMMY BUTLER – If you want a solid cash game play that also give you GPP upside I prefer Butler over LeBron, Westbrook and Bradley Beal. Those guys are great but they are just solid 5-5.5x values (see video above). Westbrook and Beal eat into each other but both still push 50 DKPs. To win a GPP you need 6x, 7x and even 8x. LeBron “could” drop 80 DKPs but it’s not likely, Westbrook and Beal aren’t doing a 7x-8x unless the other is out. So Butler is around 1K less and has put up the same production with 50, 53, 65 and 58 DKPs in 4 of the last 5 games. He loads the status sheet with steals, blocks, assists and has one the safest floors of any player.
BAM BAM – Lakers can’t rebound and guard the rim so in comes Bam Bam (sorry I like to call him Bam Bam) who is coming off 48.5, 43.3 and 58.5 DKPs. He is more of a GPP play as 5x is a more common outcome but he has upside for 60 DKPs. Game does have a low total and Lakers play solid defense and at a slow pace so that worries me so I would only use 1 or 2 max players from Miami.
HASSAN WHITESIDE – Game total of 235 and tight spread of -1.5 is great for a competitive game. Holmes is (Q) tonight so Whiteside could get additional minutes. Whiteside has a phenomenal FPPM number that is 1.25 on the season and up to 1.51 over the last 5 games. His issue is just minutes on the floor, I mean 2 games ago he put up 58 DKPs. Could be a solid value play for GPPs.
MARVIN BAGLEY – Another potential smash spot with Holmes (Q) and Barnes (Q) is Marvin Bagley who is only 5400 and should play 20-25 minutes. He is coming off 7x and 6x games. He is playing up 9% from 1.03 to 1.12 FPPM.
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Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze